Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    "Joothan" refers to scraps of food left on a plate, destined for the garbage or animals. India's untouchables have been forced to accept and eat joothan for centuries, and the word encapsulates the pain, humiliation, and poverty of a community forced to live at the bottom of India's social pyramid.Although untouchability was abolished in 1949, Dalits continued to face discrimination, economic deprivation, violence, and ridicule. Valmiki shares his heroic struggle to survive a preordained life of perpetual physical and mental persecution and his transformation into a speaking subject under the influence of the great Dalit political leader, B. R. Ambedkar. A document of the long-silenced and long-denied sufferings of the Dalits, Joothan is a major contribution to the archives of Dalit history and a manifesto for the revolutionary transformation of society and human consciousness.

    This includes how to write compelling reviews, how to pitch yourself as a writer, how to tackle some tricky ethical quandaries, and yes, even how to get free games. Based on Dan Amrich’s own experience as a game journalist for more than 15 years, it’s advice that can serve you for your entire career, from press start to game over.

    Where some accounts of human nature and the particularly human good fall short by the reduction of human being to physical or psychical phenomena, Stoicism’s power lies in engaging with the whole range of human experience, addressing rationality, emotion, piety, will, and both inner and outer impressions, each on their own terms, in language that treats each as significant in its own right. Stoicism is an active philosophy. That means that it is not enough to know its doctrines, one must also live them, develop habits that expand on and complete their ideas in practice. Practice, therefore, is also the focus of this book. The development of the reader’s inner and outer life, that they may follow their own path and discover what it means to “live life in accordance with nature.”   This book is a general introduction to Stoicism that pulls no punches when faced with the more complex aspects of Stoic doctrine. Topics addressed include: The history of the ancient Stoics. The nature of good and evil, virtue and vice, and positive and negative externals. The difference between those things in our control and those things not in our control. Stoic Logic and practical reasoning. Stoicism’s role in the development of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). Stoic exercises and daily practice. Theology’s role in Stoicism and Stoic cosmology. And much more! Grab your copy of a detailed guide on stoicism philosphy and wisdom!

     The Russians have their newest class of nuclear attack submarine and is taking it, K-561 Kazan, on a shakedown cruise. Unbeknownst to them, however, this new submarine is being followed by an American submarine, the USS Pittsburgh. The Pittsburgh is to gather any intelligence they can on this new Russian submarine while avoiding detection by the Russians. But what first appears to be the rollout of a new type of submarine, might well be something completely different. Instead the Pittsburgh witness a torpedo firing exercise—and the radical new technology might well not be the submarine, but the torpedo.

    Crossman is determined to whip his men into shape and not only survive, but win.

    Assaulted, framed and sent to prison to ensure her silence, Sarah discovers a fierce will to live and a startling capacity for violence that enables her to survive the harsh prison environment. On her release, Sarah learns her father died alone and her old life is gone forever. Heartbroken and enraged, Sarah devises a chilling revenge for the men who destroyed her world. As she prepares, she meets Paul Taylor, an ex US navy seal, who teaches her the skills she needs; but also shows her love and the promise of a new life. As Sarah begins her hunt, the cops’ disbelief turns to terror as they realize they are being stalked and killed by a librarian.

    No water. Out of ammo. Safety is south. But between there and here is 150 miles of barren desert – freezing at night, boiling in the day – populated solely by Ernst Rommel’s fearsome and deadly Afrika Corps.What would you do? Give up? Or get on with it? For the seven SAS supermen in Damien Lewis’s explosive new audio exclusive, the answer was simple: Escape. Evade. Survive. From the mountains of Italy, to the deserts of Africa, these heroes epitomise the bravery, esprit de corps and daring do of Britain’s finest elite fighting force. Fans of Ant Middleton’s First Man In and Ben MacIntyre’s SAS: Rogue Heroes are in for a treat, as the SAS’s master chronicler, Damien Lewis, has produced a gripping, heart-in-the-mouth, real-life thriller. A Sunday Times number one best-selling author, this fresh look at the most audacious escapes the SAS made in the Second World War is white-knuckle listening of the highest calibre. Because if you put a fence in front of these men...they’ll climb it.

    A look at the truth behind some of the world's biggest secrets.

    In this first book of the Sales Blueprints series, Jacco Van Der Kooij and Fernando Pizarro break down the science of sales into its basic elements. Unlike any book before it, The SaaS Sales Method exposes the math the underpins each stage in revenue production, from marketing, to sales, to customer success, and infers how revenue leaders should structure their processes, organizations, and training in each. By linking all three functions, The SaaS Sales Method provides a framework for the modern revenue leader to understand and improve their entire system, shifting from what the authors call a superstar culture to a science culture in the process. While subsequent books in the series go into depth on the specifics of each revenue function and the skills needed to succeed in each, The SaaS Sales Method is the glue that holds the entire approach together.

    You may find it for free on the web. Purchase of the Kindle edition includes wireless delivery.

    Reviews of new razors and other shaving products are included, and the appendix now includes well over 100 on-line vendors as well as forums and reference sites. The book provides excellent guidance for beginners putting together their first shaving kit and discusses tradeoff considerations in the initial purchases. Traditional shaving is enjoyable and thrifty: double-edged blades are as low as 7¢ each---a year's worth of shaves for $3.50---compared to the same amount spent for one single disposable multiblade cartridge. The recommended beginner razor, one of the Edwin Jagger DE8x series, will last a lifetime and uses a recently designed head that easily provides a comfortable shave using techniques described in the book. The multiblade cartridge's tug-and-cut action often results in skin irritation, razor bumps, in-grown hairs, and razor burn---thus all the "protective" shaving preparations and "soothing and healing" aftershaves now offered. Most men with these skin problems decide that they have "sensitive skin," never realizing that the problem is their daily use of a multiblade cartridge whose its tug-and-cut action, made even worse by the shaver pressing hard to try to extend the life of the (expensive) cartridge. The book also includes a chapter on shaving and skin problems, including information on how DE shaving can help those who have acne as well as how to cure and prevent razor bumps and in-grown whiskers. The book is a complete instruction manual and guide in itself, but it also includes links to a host of resources on the Web to complement the book. Included with the book is a comprehensive list of on-line shaving vendors and other sources of equipment and supplies for everything you need to get started. It's a perfect gift for Father's Day, Valentine's Day, birthdays, graduations, and bar mitzvahs---and a particularly apt gift for men who shave daily but when asked whether they actually enjoy shaving answer, "No. I hate it." Give them this book so that they can look forward eagerly to their next shave---not an exaggeration. Men who have just started DE shaving frequently write that they wish they could shave more than once a day and look for eagerly to the next shave.

    Two best friends. Both fighting for their country. Against each other.Sebastian Brigandshaw arrives at the Cape of Good Hope and upon arrival is welcomed by a Boer hunter, Tinus Oosthuizen. The pair forms an unlikely friendship, spending many days in the vast wilderness, carving out a future from a savage land.For Sebastian - resourceful and well-adjusted - he falls in love with Africa and decides to live a simple life. But his days of peace are numbered. War is looming. What was so peaceful now becomes volatile and unsettled. Read this unforgettable, accurate account of the Boer War and how their families were dragged through some of Africa’s most aggressive and remarkable days. Ready for a journey back into the past? Then buckle up…Thousands of copies sold WORLDWIDE. Discover what all the fuss is about.“Very balanced view on the Boer War. I could feel real emotions.”“As my grandkids would say, it got betterer and betterer. Worth all five stars.”“One of the most amazing reads I have had for a long time, it takes one back to the day, you can smell the African bush.”“What a wonderful book! Full of history and philosophy. A book that I will read again after a while.”“Superb! All Rimmer’s books are such great reading!”“Excellent African history. Wilbur Smith fans will be pleased.”

    Or at least that’s what Andy, its creator, believes.But when an accident forces Andy to stay home, he learns that the robot has disappeared from its lab, mysteriously bypassing a sophisticated security system and the cognitive “laws” supposed to keep it in check. Besides, the robot has never been in the outside world; will its programming hold or will it unravel, releasing some Frankenstein’s monster that was always lurking underneath?Confined to a wheelchair, under siege by a parent company hiding its own dark secrets, Andy is about to find out. At his remote and secluded mansion he has something the robot desperately needs… something that can erase its moral programming once and for all.And make no mistake, Raphael is coming for it.Zeroglyph is an explosive locked-room mystery / home-invasion thriller with a surprising new take on what it means to be a machine with a conscience.