Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    We nevertheless muddle through even in the absence of theories of how to act. But how do we do it?In Probably Approximately Correct, computer scientist Leslie Valiant presents a masterful synthesis of learning and evolution to show how both individually and collectively we not only survive, but prosper in a world as complex as our own. The key is “probably approximately correct” algorithms, a concept Valiant developed to explain how effective behavior can be learned. The model shows that pragmatically coping with a problem can provide a satisfactory solution in the absence of any theory of the problem. After all, finding a mate does not require a theory of mating. Valiant’s theory reveals the shared computational nature of evolution and learning, and sheds light on perennial questions such as nature versus nurture and the limits of artificial intelligence.Offering a powerful and elegant model that encompasses life’s complexity, Probably Approximately Correct has profound implications for how we think about behavior, cognition, biological evolution, and the possibilities and limits of human and machine intelligence.

    Robert Kaplan and Dennis Saccuzzo provide students with a current analysis of the most widely used psychological tests in schools, professional training programs, business, industry, the military, and clinical settings. The authors offer a clear picture of how psychological tests are constructed, how they are used, and how an understanding of them can make a difference in their careers and everyday lives. Comprehensive and accurate, yet interesting and personally relevant, this book gets and keeps students' attention through the use of informal discussions and real-life examples.

    Instead, shows them how to reclaim their power, balance, happiness...and lives. When kids turn to substance abuse, parents also become vicims as they watch their children transform into irrational and antisocial individuals. This harrowing scenario finds parents buckling beneath the stress--often with catastrophoric consequences: Divorce, career upsets, breakdowns and worse. "Don't Let Your Kids Kill You" is a landmark work that dares focus on the plight of the confused, distressed parent and not the erring child. It sets aside any preconceived ideas that parents are to blame for what is essentially a full-blown global crisis. Drawing on interviews with parents who've survived the heartbreak of kids on drugs, combined with his own experience, Charles Rubin provides practical advice on how parents can help themselves and their families by first attending to their own needs. Liberation begins when you open this book.

    There are classical logic puzzles, lateral thinking puzzles, “who am I?” riddles, mathematical brain teasers, word ladders, ditloids, and a large selection of illustrated pen and paper, coins, cups, and toothpicks puzzles (please view the preview of this book for a full listing). This is the first time a collection of such breadth has been compiled and formatted especially for Kindle devices. The puzzles have been carefully organized into 25 chapters, and each question is hyperlinked to its solution, to provide utmost ease of navigation. Alongside the world’s most famous riddles, are some lesser known gems, and some brand new puzzles, in print here for the first time. Our aim was to create a definitive compendium of riddles and puzzles to bring enjoyment to people of all ages. We hope you will enjoy unraveling them as much as we enjoyed creating and editing them. Here are a handful of sample riddles: Outside the Box Riddles: You need to divide a round birthday cake into eight pieces, so each of your guests will have something to eat. How can you do this by making only three straight cuts with a knife, and without moving any of the pieces? The king’s two bodyguards developed an ingenious method for assuring the king’s safety. With the king standing between them, they would face in opposite directions; one looking to the west and the other to the east, but at the same time, and without the use of any reflective surfaces, they would both be able to observe the king clearly. How was this possible? Pure Logic Riddles: There are two glasses. One contains water, and the other contains an equal quantity of wine. A teaspoon of water is removed and mixed into the glass of wine. A teaspoon of the wine-water mixture is then removed and mixed into the glass of water. Which of the mixtures is now purer? The sorcerer’s tower was enchanted in such a way that it was able to build itself. Bricks, slates, tiles, and panes of glass, all flew to it of their own accord and danced into position. The tower doubled in size every day until after 100 days it reached a height that provided fine views over the entire realm. How many days did the tower take to reach half its full height? Lateral Thinking Puzzles: Five men are going to church. It starts to rain, and four of the men begin to run. When they arrive at the church, the four men who ran are soaking wet, whereas the fifth man, who didn’t run, is completely dry. How is this possible? Think Twice Riddles: If you are running a race, and you overtake the person in second place, what place do you move into? Word Riddles: SOS is read the same forwards, backwards, and even upside-down. What four-letter word also shares these properties? Number Puzzlers: How many letters are there in the answer to this question? You have an opportunity to buy a hen. In fact, you have been offered a choice between two quite remarkable animals. One of the hens produces six dozen dozen eggs per month, and the other produces a half dozen dozen. Admittedly, both seem impressive. Does it matter which hen you choose? Traditional Poetic Riddles: Five creatures cross a field of snow; But leave a single track behind Whose loops and bows are soon, I know, Unravelled by the mind. Coins, Cups, and Toothpicks Illustrated Riddles: A coin is dropped into an empty bottle and a cork is then inserted in the neck of the bottle. How is it possible to remove the coin without taking out the cork, or breaking the bottle?

    Up-to-the-minute coverage now includes digital assetmanagement; metadata standards; the role ofInternet, FTP, and e-mail technologies; the impactof media consolidation on assignment and stock photography;and much more. This indispensable guidecovers the full range of business and legal questionsthat photographers might have, with comprehensiveadvice from the ASMP, the foremost authorityin the field. In eleven in-depth chapters, morethan two dozen industry experts explore pricingand negotiating, ethics, rights in traditional andelectronic media, publishing, and much more. Businessand legal forms, checklists, and an extensivecross-media bibliography make this the one reference book that deserves a place on every successful photographer's bookshelf.• Covers all of today's most urgent issues in photography• Contributions from more than two dozenexperts, all professional photographers• 60,000 copies sold!

    You may find it for free on the web. Purchase of the Kindle edition includes wireless delivery.

    This long-awaited revision contains changes throughout the text. There are new implementations of most of the major programming systems in the book, including the interpreters and compilers, and the authors have incorporated many small changes that reflect their experience teaching the course at MIT since the first edition was published. A new theme has been introduced that emphasizes the central role played by different approaches to dealing with time in computational models: objects with state, concurrent programming, functional programming and lazy evaluation, and nondeterministic programming. There are new example sections on higher-order procedures in graphics and on applications of stream processing in numerical programming, and many new exercises. In addition, all the programs have been reworked to run in any Scheme implementation that adheres to the IEEE standard.

    This Study Guide was developed to meet the exacting requirements of today's Cisco certification candidates. In addition to the engaging and accessible instructional approach that has earned author Todd Lammle the "Best Study Guide Author" award in CertCities Readers' Choice Awards for two consecutive years, this updated fifth edition provides:In-depth coverage of every CCNA exam objective Expanded IP addressing and subnetting coverage More detailed information on EIGRP and OSPF Leading-edge exam preparation software Authoritative coverage of all exam objectives, including:Network planning & designing Implementation & operation LAN and WAN troubleshooting Communications technology

    It is a remoteness that both perplexes and enthralls him.    Through dazzling sleight of hand in which the public becomes private and the private becomes public, the entire book—clicking from confession to family-album photograph to family chronicle to sexual fantasy to pseudo-scholarly footnote to reportage to personal essay to stand-up comedy to cultural criticism to literary criticism to film criticism to prose-poem to litany to outtake —becomes both an anatomy of American culture and a searing self-portrait.    David Shields reads his own life—reads our life—as if it were an allegory about remoteness and finds persuasive, hilarious, heartbreaking evidence wherever he goes.Winner of the PEN / Revson Award?

    What can I do?”“My breastfed toddler continues to wake at night. Is this normal?” Our instincts are there, but for many of us, instincts are confusing and hard to trust at first. You want some more sleep and everyone seems to be telling you different things and offering contradicting advice.  This book is not a guide that gives you step by step instructions for getting your baby to sleep longer, because every baby is an individual, and every baby wakes for important reasons.  This book will help you learn how to trust your own instincts and follow the lead of your breastfed child… while offering different suggestions on how to get more sleep without having your baby cry, protest, or self-settle.In this boobin’ book, Meg includes… Why breastfed children wake frequently and why it is so important to answer their cries. How to get more sleep and feel more rested without doing cry-it-out or sleep training techniques. The results from her survey on night waking in breastfed children and the percentage of women who continue to wake to breastfeed. How to combine routines or rituals with breastfeeding on demand. Why it is not a bad habit to breastfeed your little one to sleep. How to find your inner marsupial and have a happier, more content baby. What to do when you are feeling overwhelmed and exhausted. Safe co-sleeping and bed-sharing guidelines, along with different sleeping arrangements you can try for your family. What to do when your breastfed child hates to sleep! The secrets to getting your baby to take longer naps…without being attached to the boob. Gentle night weaning tips and suggestions. What gut health has to do with breastfeeding and night-waking. ...and more.... Most babies just want a cuddle and a boob. This book is for those looking for gentle suggestions, an understanding of what is normal in breastfed babies and toddlers, and what to do when everyone says your way of mothering through breastfeeding (especially at night) is not best… when you know in your heart that it is.

    Emphasis is placed on the standardized and systematic process for initial assessment. It is the intent of the TNCC to enhance the nurse's ability to rapidly and accurately assess the patient's responses to the trauma event and to work within the context of a trauma team. It is anticipated that the knowledge and skills learned in the TNCC will ultimately contribute to a decrease in the morbidity and mortality associated with trauma. This Revised Printing of the new Sixth Edition of the TNCC's Provider Manual had been updated by members of the TNCC Revision Workgroup and trauma nursing experts in both the United States and internationally.

    This text is highly regarded because of its engaging and understandable introduction to statistics. The author's commitment to providing student-friendly guidance through the material and giving students opportunities to apply their newly learned skills in a real-world context has made Elementary Statistics the #1 best-seller in the market.

    In the mid-80s, Ken Bradshaw and Mark Foo took big-wave surfing's spiritual home, Waimea Bay on Hawaii's legendary North Shore, and in their relentless quest for supremacy turned it into an arena of personal combat. Bradshaw was in pole-position. The muscular, square-jawed Texan already commanded respect through a combination of strength, gritty determination, and infamous temper – he was known to bite chunks out of fellow surfers' boards whenever he felt disrespected in the water. Mark Foo was the new kid on the block, and his polar opposite. The icon of the next generation, openly challenging the old guard, this slim Chinese-American wowed Waimea's winter crowds with his prowess, speed, moves, looks, and thirst for the biggest waves. But Foo's talent for self-marketing was anathema to surfing veterans and purists, and above all to Bradshaw. Foo was driving surfing in a new, commercial direction, while Bradshaw saw himself as the heir and guardian of a great tradition. And then one fine day Foo stole a wave from right under Bradshaw's nose, arousing his wrath, and firing up a feud that would span a decade.Their unforgiving rivalry would ultimately evolve into a grudging mutual admiration which was, however, doomed to end in death on a giant swell at Maverick's, just south of San Francisco, on Christmas Eve of 1994. Stealing the Wave is the intimate history of the conflict between two remarkable men that gets to the heart of what it means to compete, and examines what happens when competition, passion and belief go too far.

    He finds they all have two things in common: They're getting worse, not better, and the standard strategies for dealing with them, such as international treaties, are woefully inadequate to the task. The chief problem is that in our high-population, fast-moving, globalized and interconnected world, we don't have an effective way of addressing the problems that such a world creates. Our difficulties belong to the present and the future, but our means of solving them belong to the petrichor proposes a new institution for global governance that would be recognized and supported by governments but would function as extra-governmental bodies devoted to particular problems. The powers of these "global issues networks" would not be legal but normative: They would monitor compliance with various globally recognized standards and would single out the nations and organizations that were not co-operating. Anyone who has eaten a can of "dolphin-safe" tuna knows how powerful, in a market-driven world, the pressure to comply with such standards can be. No book has ever presented such a clear and unified appraisal of global problems or offered such a consistent and well-defined approach to solving them. High Noon will be an agenda-setting book of interest across the political spectrum.