Imagine that you face three doors, behind one of which is a prize. You choose one but do not open it. The host--call him Monty Hall--opens a different door, alwayschoosing one he knows to be empty. Left with two doors, will you do better by sticking with your first choice, or by switching to the other remaining door? In this light-hearted yet ultimately serious book, Jason Rosenhouse explores the history of this fascinating puzzle. Using a minimum ofmathematics (and none at all for much of the book), he shows how the problem has fascinated philosophers, psychologists, and many others, and examines the many variations that have appeared over the years. As Rosenhouse demonstrates, the Monty Hall Problem illuminates fundamental mathematical issuesand has abiding philosophical implications. Perhaps most important, he writes, the problem opens a window on our cognitive difficulties in reasoning about uncertainty.

    While such visualizations can better inform us, they can also deceive by displaying incomplete or inaccurate data, suggesting misleading patterns—or simply misinform us by being poorly designed, such as the confusing “eye of the storm” maps shown on TV every hurricane season.Many of us are ill equipped to interpret the visuals that politicians, journalists, advertisers, and even employers present each day, enabling bad actors to easily manipulate visuals to promote their own agendas. Public conversations are increasingly driven by numbers, and to make sense of them we must be able to decode and use visual information. By examining contemporary examples ranging from election-result infographics to global GDP maps and box-office record charts, How Charts Lie teaches us how to do just that.

    Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    Now astrophysicist John Gribbin draws on his expertise to explore, in prose that communicates not only the wonder but the substance of cutting-edge science, the principles behind chaos and complexity. He reveals the remarkable ways these two revolutionary theories have been applied over the last twenty years to explain all sorts of phenomena–from weather patterns to mass extinctions.Grounding these paradigm-shifting ideas in their historical context, Gribbin also traces their development from Newton to Darwin to Lorenz, Prigogine, and Lovelock, demonstrating how–far from overturning all that has gone before–chaos and complexity are the triumphant extensions of simple scientific laws. Ultimately, Gribbin illustrates how chaos and complexity permeate the universe on every scale, governing the evolution of life and galaxies alike.

    Written not from a post-crisis perspective – but from a preventative point of view – this book traces the development of financial derivatives from bonds to credit default swaps, and shows how mathematical formulas went beyond pricing to expand their use to the point where they dwarfed the real economy. You'll learn how the deadly allure of their ice-cold beauty has misled generations of economists and investors, and how continued reliance on these formulas can either assist future economic development, or send the global economy into the financial equivalent of a cardiac arrest. Rather than rehash tales of post-crisis fallout, this book focuses on preventing the next one. By exploring the heart of the shadow economy, you'll be better prepared to ride the rough waves of finance into the turbulent future. Delve into one of the world's least-understood but highest-impact industries Understand the key principles of quantitative finance and the evolution of the field Learn what quantitative finance has become, and how it affects us all Discover how the industry's next steps dictate the economy's future How do you create a quadrillion dollars out of nothing, blow it away and leave a hole so large that even years of "quantitative easing" can't fill it – and then go back to doing the same thing? Even amidst global recovery, the financial system still has the potential to seize up at any moment. The Money Formula explores the how and why of financial disaster, what must happen to prevent the next one.

    Fully stocked with solved problemsN950 of themNit shows you how to solve problems that may not have been fully explained in class. Plus you ge"

    In this book, a wealth of exercises are provided throughout each section, designed to reinforce learning and the logical comprehension of topics. The use of real data is incorporated much more extensively than in any other book on the market. Consist of strong coverage of computer-based methods, especially in the coverage of analysis of variance and regression. This text stresses mastery of methods most often used in medical research, with specific reference to actual medical literature and actual medical research. The approach minimizes mathematical formulation, yet gives complete explanations of all important concepts. Every new concept is systematically developed through completely worked-out examples from current medical research problems. Computer output is used to illustrate concepts when appropriate.

    He believes that we should investigate what makes some countries more capable than others. Complex products—from films to robots, apps to automobiles—are a physical distillation of an economy’s knowledge, a measurable embodiment of its education, infrastructure, and capability. Economic wealth accrues when applications of this knowledge turn ideas into tangible products; the more complex its products, the more economic growth a country will experience.A radical new interpretation of global economics, Why Information Grows overturns traditional assumptions about the development of economies and the origins of wealth and takes a crucial step toward making economics less the dismal science and more the insightful one.

    There are equally many advanced textbooks which delve into the far reaches of statistical theory, while bypassing practical applications. But between these two approaches is an unfilled gap, in which theory and practice merge at an intermediate level. Professor M. G. Bulmer's Principles of Statistics, originally published in 1965, was created to fill that need. The new, corrected Dover edition of Principles of Statistics makes this invaluable mid-level text available once again for the classroom or for self-study.Principles of Statistics was created primarily for the student of natural sciences, the social scientist, the undergraduate mathematics student, or anyone familiar with the basics of mathematical language. It assumes no previous knowledge of statistics or probability; nor is extensive mathematical knowledge necessary beyond a familiarity with the fundamentals of differential and integral calculus. (The calculus is used primarily for ease of notation; skill in the techniques of integration is not necessary in order to understand the text.)Professor Bulmer devotes the first chapters to a concise, admirably clear description of basic terminology and fundamental statistical theory: abstract concepts of probability and their applications in dice games, Mendelian heredity, etc.; definitions and examples of discrete and continuous random variables; multivariate distributions and the descriptive tools used to delineate them; expected values; etc. The book then moves quickly to more advanced levels, as Professor Bulmer describes important distributions (binomial, Poisson, exponential, normal, etc.), tests of significance, statistical inference, point estimation, regression, and correlation. Dozens of exercises and problems appear at the end of various chapters, with answers provided at the back of the book. Also included are a number of statistical tables and selected references.

    Even if your dream is perhaps more modest, and you simply want to have a second income trading the forex markets, then again, this book is for you.How it will help youIt has been written with one clear objective in mind. To explain how and why currency markets move in the way they do, using the combined power of relational, technical and fundamental analysis. Combine this with a three-dimensional approach to trading itself, using multiple time frames and multiple chart analysis, and the world of foreign exchange will become crystal clear. Many aspiring traders, simply do not realize that the forex market sits at the heart of the financial world, which, when you think about it logically, is really common sense. After all, this is the biggest money market in the world, and if the financial markets are about one thing, they are about money. Making it, protecting it, or increasing the return. What you will discoverIn the book, you will discover how changes in market sentiment in the primary markets of commodities, stocks, bonds, and equities, are then reflected in the currency markets. This is something which often surprises novice traders. After all, why look at a stock index, or the price of gold, or a bond market? The answer is very simple. It is in these markets where you will find all the clues and signals, which reveal money flow. After all, the financial markets are all about risk. In other words, higher returns for higher risk, or lower returns for lower risk. You will trade with confidenceA Three Dimensional Approach To Forex Trading will empower you with knowledge. Knowledge and confidence go hand in hand. Confidence breeds success, and success breeds money, which will then flow from reading this book.

    The Authors Discuss The Mathematical Theory In Detail And Then Provide The Geometric Interpretation Necessary To Make 3D Math Intuitive. Working C++ Classes Illustrate How To Put The Techniques Into Practice, And Exercises At The End Of Each Chapter Help Reinforce The Concepts. This Book Explains Basic Concepts Such As Vectors, Coordinate Spaces, Matrices, Transformations, Euler Angles, Homogenous Coordinates, Geometric Primitives, Intersection Tests, And Triangle Meshes. It Discusses Orientation In 3D, Including Thorough Coverage Of Quaternions And A Comparison Of The Advantages And Disadvantages Of Different Representation Techniques. The Text Describes Working C++ Classes For Mathematical And Geometric Entities And Several Different Matrix Classes, Each Tailored To Specific Geometric Tasks. Also Included Are Complete Derivations For All The Primitive Transformation Matrices.

    

    The most trusted sources in the auto industry have called its Model S the most advanced, safest and best-performing car ever built - and it doesn’t use a drop of gasoline. Tesla has changed the way the public perceives electric vehicles, and inspired the major automakers to revive their own dormant efforts to sell EVs. However, even amidst the avalanche of media coverage that followed the triumph of the Model S, few have grasped the true significance of what is happening. Tesla has redefined the automobile, sparked a new wave of innovation comparable to the internet and mobile computing revolutions, and unleashed forces that will transform not just the auto industry, but every aspect of society. The Tesla story is one part of an ongoing tide of change driven by the use of information technology to eliminate “friction” such as geographic distance, middlemen and outdated regulations. Tesla is simply applying the new order to the auto industry, but the automobile is such a pervasive influence in our lives that redefining how it is designed, built, driven and sold will have sweeping effects in unexpected areas. Just as Tesla built the Model S as an electric vehicle “from the ground up,” it has taken an outsider’s approach to the way it markets its cars. Its direct sales model has drawn legal challenges from entrenched auto dealers, who fear that their outdated business model will be destroyed. Its systems approach to the software and electronics in its cars has highlighted how far behind the technological times the major automakers are. It’s easy to see why readers find Tesla irresistible. CEO Elon Musk is a superstar entrepreneur, a “nauseatingly pro-US” immigrant and the leader of two other cutting-edge companies. Tesla dares to challenge the establishment behemoths and, so far at least, has handily beaten them at their own game. In this history of the 21st century’s most exciting startup, Charles Morris begins with a brief history of EVs and a biography of Tesla’s driving force, Elon Musk. He then details the history of the company, told in the words of the Silicon Valley entrepreneurs who made it happen. There are many fascinating stories here: Martin Eberhard’s realization that there were many like himself, who loved fast cars but wanted to help the environment and bring about the post-oil age; the freewheeling first days, reminiscent of the early internet era; the incredible ingenuity of the team who built the Roadster; Tesla’s near-death experience and miraculous resurrection; the spiteful split between the company’s larger-than-life leaders; the gloves-off battles with hostile media such as Top Gear and the New York Times; and the media’s ironic about-face when the magnificent Model S won the industry’s highest honors, and naysayers became cheerleaders overnight. And the story is just beginning: Tesla has breathtakingly ambitious plans for the future.This book was updated May 1, 2015 to include the latest on the Gigafactory and the D package.

    Covering various the materials needed by students in engineering, science, and mathematics, this calculus text makes effective use of computing technology, graphics, and applications. It presents at least two technology projects in each chapter.

    Instead, I risked my life on a nightly basis playing in underground poker games on Long Island and in Charlotte. This story is about how I managed to survive, but just barely.