We chase ‘winning streaks’ that are often just illusions, and we are all too predictable exactly when we try hardest not to be.In the 1970s, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky coined the phrase ‘representativeness’ to describe the psychology of this behaviour. Since then representativeness has been used by auditors to catch people fiddling their tax returns and by hedge fund managers to reap billions from the emotions of small investors. Now Poundstone for the first time makes these techniques fun, easy, and profitable for everyone, in the everyday situations that matter. You’ll learn how to tackle multiple choice tests, what internet passwords to avoid, how to up your odds of winning the office Premier League sweepstakes, and the best ways to invest your money.

    Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today's model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work.The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation.By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling.Web ResourceThe book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author's website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

    The authors provide precise definitions and full proofs of results, sacrificing generalities and limiting the scope of the material in order to do so. The text is organized in four parts: strategic games, extensive games with perfect information, extensive games with imperfect information, and coalitional games. It includes over 100 exercises. Solution ManualTable of Contents, Errata, and more...

     Buddhism is an agnostic religion. It neither acknowledges the existence of a god nor denies it. It simply teaches that we must live by a moral code because it is our nature to do so, regardless of whether a god exists or not. To choose good in the hopes of reward, while avoiding evil out of fear of punishment, is not true goodness. It is sheer hypocrisy — a selfish desire to do something in return for our own benefit. To understand the Four Noble Truths and the Eightfold Path, we first have to understand the word “dukkha.” This is often mistranslated into English as “suffering,” giving people the idea that Buddhism is a pessimistic religion. Nothing can possibly be further from the truth. While dukkha can certainly be understood to mean “suffering,” it would be more accurate to translate this word as “anxiety,” “stress,” or “dissatisfaction.” This book endeavors to explain the Buddha’s perspective on dukkha, and how one can live in spite of it, even striving to move beyond it. If you’re ready to learn more about dukkha and the path to liberation, let’s get started! Here Is A Preview Of What You'll Learn... About Buddhist Diversity Understanding Dukkha The Four Noble Truths The Eightfold Path Panna – Wisdom Śila – Ethical Conduct Samādhi – Concentration Nibbāna – Blown Out Much, much more! Download your copy today! Tags: eight-fold path, nirvana, the four noble truths and the eightfold path, four noble truths and eightfold path, buddhism, buddhist, theraveda buddhism, Eightfold Path, four noble truths, nibbana, eightfold path of buddhism, the eightfold path, noble eightfold path, eight fold path

    Fully revised to meet the needs of the wide range of students beginning engineering courses, this edition has an extended Foundation section including new chapters on graphs, trigonometry, binomial series and functions and a CD-ROM

    It introduces marketing from the perspective of real people making real marketing decisions at leading companies "every day. "Learners will come to understand that marketing is about "creating value"-for customers, for companies, and for society as a whole-and they will see how that is accomplished in the real world. A five-part organization covers making marketing value decisions, identifying markets and understanding customers' needs for value, creating the value proposition, communicating the value proposition, and delivering the value proposition. For individuals interested in a career in marketing.

    In A Brief History of Mathematical Thought, Luke Heaton explores how the language of mathematics has evolved over time, enabling new technologies and shaping the way people think. From stone-age rituals to algebra, calculus, and the concept of computation, Heaton shows the enormous influence of mathematics on science, philosophy and the broader human story. The book traces the fascinating history of mathematical practice, focusing on the impact of key conceptual innovations. Its structure of thirteen chapters split between four sections is dictated by a combination of historical and thematic considerations. In the first section, Heaton illuminates the fundamental concept of number. He begins with a speculative and rhetorical account of prehistoric rituals, before describing the practice of mathematics in Ancient Egypt, Babylon and Greece. He then examines the relationship between counting and the continuum of measurement, and explains how the rise of algebra has dramatically transformed our world. In the second section, he explores the origins of calculus and the conceptual shift that accompanied the birth of non-Euclidean geometries. In the third section, he examines the concept of the infinite and the fundamentals of formal logic. Finally, in section four, he considers the limits of formal proof, and the critical role of mathematics in our ongoing attempts to comprehend the world around us. The story of mathematics is fascinating in its own right, but Heaton does more than simply outline a history of mathematical ideas. More importantly, he shows clearly how the history and philosophy of maths provides an invaluable perspective on human nature.

    This book offers a full range of exercises, a precise and conceptual presentation, and a new media package designed specifically to meet the needs of today's readers. The exercises gradually increase in difficulty, helping readers learn to generalize and apply the concepts. The refined table of contents introduces the exponential, logarithmic, and trigonometric functions in Chapter 7 of the text.KEY TOPICS Functions, Limits and Continuity, Differentiation, Applications of Derivatives, Integration, Applications of Definite Integrals, Integrals and Transcendental Functions, Techniques of Integration, Further Applications of Integration, Conic Sections and Polar Coordinates, Infinite Sequences and Series, Vectors and the Geometry of Space, Vector-Valued Functions and Motion in Space, Partial Derivatives, Multiple Integrals, Integration in Vector Fields.MARKET For all readers interested in Calculus.

    Unlike other PR texts that steer clear of the cases, the ethical challenges, the how to counsel, and the public relations conundrums that force students to think, this book prepares students to deal with a full range of situations and arrive at effective, ethical solutions that distinguish the practice.

    When hearing those words just a couple of years back, people used to say: It’s a scam, financial bubble IThere is no point in investing, the price is too low INo country will ever recognize cryptocurrency IIt’s an obvious pyramid scheme IIt’s a sort of amusement for nerds IIt's not serious, it will collapse in a couple of years. Until recently, cryptocurrency had been viewed as a sort of amusement for a handful of the chosen who bought and sold something and believed that a new currency would make a hit one day! You surely were also among those people who did not take Bitcoin and cryptocurrency seriously, but the current events gag even the biggest skeptics. Current Bitcoin price is 6,644$* The price of the most popular cryptocurrency repeatedly breaks all the unthinkable records. Capitalization is about $120 billion World recognition The world's largest economies – India and Japan – recognized Bitcoin as the official currency. The US authorities recognized cryptocurrency as the asset. And this is just the beginning. Mining on an industrial scale The cryptocurrency market is extremely fast-changing, and it is almost impossible to monitor the situation and make the right decisions on your own. Most people have no proper experience, time and money for that. My book gives basic yet quite extensive information for those people who do not chase a rainbow but want to build a long-term profitable business in one of the cryptocurrency areas: from mining to investing. So, this book is not about: Illegal ways of making money Praising cryptocurrency and urging you to invest in it to the last penny Fraud techniques and making a fast buck Boring and pointless theory Ways to earn millions without investments and risks This book will help you get to learn the following: Which way of making money in cryptocurrency market suits you best. Where should you start if you have just $500. What information about cryptocurrency the experts withhold (Take the rose-colored glasses off!). How to elaborate a personal strategy, set up your own cryptocurrency business and earn your first $3,000-10,000 as early as 2018. I can also guarantee that you: Puzzle out the main present-day currency trend even if you are clueless about economics, finance and technology. Understand whether you really want to invest in cryptocurrency (perhaps, this type of business doesn’t suit you at all and you will save your time) Get to learn how to check the risks and not to invest in the first available currency Having considered my experience, protect yourself from possible failures and pouring money down the drain which will inevitably happen if you go it blind.

    This overview has enabled students to make sense more easily of what instructors are doing when they produce proofs, theorems and formulas.

    Be sure to look inside the book to get a free sample of this quality product!

    The book's patient explanations are written in an informal, non-intimidating style. To underscore the relevance of mathematics to economics, the author allows the economist's analytical needs to motivate the study of related mathematical techniques; he then illustrates these techniques with appropriate economics models. Graphic illustrations often visually reinforce algebraic results. Many exercise problems serve as drills and help bolster student confidence. These major types of economic analysis are covered: statics, comparative statics, optimization problems, dynamics, and mathematical programming. These mathematical methods are introduced: matrix algebra, differential and integral calculus, differential equations, difference equations, and convex sets.

    Cosmic Universe and Human History, microcosm and macrocosm, inorganic and living matter coexist and form a unique unity manifested in multiple forms. The Physical and the Mental constitute the form and the content of the World. The world does not consist of subjects and objects, the “subject” and the “object” are metaphysical abstractions of the single and indivisible Wholeness. Man’s finite knowledge separates the Whole into parts and studies fragmentarily the beings. The Wholeness is manifested in multiple forms and each form encapsulates the Wholeness. The rational explanation of the excerpts and the intuitive apprehension of the Wholeness are required to combine and create the open thought and the holistic knowledge. This means that the measurement should be defined by the ''measure'', but the responsibility for determining the ''measure'' depends on the man. This requires that man overcomes the anthropocentric arrogance and the narcissistic selfishness and he joins the Cosmic World in a friendly and creative manner.

    Make the bet more attractive for them: the game could have 10 or 20 rounds, and you’ll give them the privilege of starting first in every s-i-n-g-l-e round. “Piece of cake!” they will think and they will take the bet. Only to discover in despair, 10 or 20 rounds later, that it is impossible to beat you, even once. This book reveals a simple system that will help you never lose a single game from the moment you learn them. Let us repeat that.After reading this book and for the rest of your life, you will never, ever lose a game of Tic-Tac-Toe again! How is it possible never to lose in Tic-Tac-Toe? Tic-Tac-Toe is a “solved” game, meaning that there are mathematically proven strategies to defend yourself against losing. If you play with these optimal strategies in mind, you may win and you can’t lose. If your opponent also plays with the optimal strategies in mind, neither will win, and the game will always end in a draw.However, very few people really know these strategies.This book reveals an easy system of only 8 strategies that will make you a Tic-Tac-Toe Master. If you learn and start applying these 8 strategies, we guarantee that you will never lose a game of Tic-Tac-Toe again. Is it easy to learn these strategies? Very easy! These 8 strategies are presented in 8 mini chapters, with illustrations and step-by-step explanations. Even a kid can read this book and learn the strategies!In just 1 hour you will have learnt all 8 strategies and you will be ready to start applying them. Will I have to think too hard to apply these strategies? As a matter of fact, all you have to do is to memorize our simple system. As soon as you learn this system, every game will be a no-brainer for you. Our system tells you exactly how to play or how to respond to your opponent’s move. Simple as A-B-C.For example, if your opponent plays first and chooses a corner, our system tells you exactly how to respond in order to eliminate any chance of losing the game. Is this for real? Do you guarantee that I will never lose a TTT game again? YES!!! We challenge you to read this book and then immediately start playing Tic-Tac-Toe online, against a computer, applying everything you have learnt. You will discover that even a computer can’t beat you.Your new super powers in Tic-Tac-Toe will blow your mind! Start right now! Buy the book, learn the strategies and NEVER lose a Tic-Tac-Toe game again from that moment and for the rest of your life!Scroll to the top of the page and click the BUY WITH 1-CLICK Button!