Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    A powerful warning about the hidden dangers in today's fascination with the paranormal -- the angel phenomenon, spirit guides, UFOs, vampires, Ouija boards, fantasy games, and others.

    

    Hardcover with sewing binding with glossy laminated multi-Colour Dust Cover, Printed on high quality Paper, professionally processed without changing its contents.We found this book important for the readers who want to know about our old treasure so we brought it back to the shelves. Print on Demand.

    Chapter 1.The birth you want: what motivates the willing woman?Chapter 2.Reality hurts: birth in the labour-bypass eraChapter 3.It’s a fine line: reframing pain in labourChapter 4.Approaching labour: what pain type are you?Chapter 5.Crisis of confidence: when self-belief crumblesChapter 6.The right support: who will get you through?

    It is a journey into a past vividly brought to life and bursting with ideas, that pits one century against another in his quest to measure which century saw the greatest change.We journey from a time when there was a fair chance of your village being burned to the ground by invaders — and dried human dung was a recommended cure for cancer — to a world in which explorers sailed into the unknown and civilizations came into conflict with each other on an epic scale. Here is a story of godly scientists, fearless adventurers, cold-hearted entrepreneurs, and strong-minded women — a story of discovery, invention, revolution, and cataclysmic shifts in perspective.Millennium is a journey into the past like no other. Our understanding of human development will never be the same again, and the lessons we learn along the way are profound ones for us all.

    She is the girl with the blue tattoo.The story behind the distinctive tattoo is the stuff of legends. Some believed it was placed on her face during her captivity, following the brutal murders of her family members and the kidnapping of her and her sister. Others believe it was placed on her after her return.Rumors swelled. Her tattoo became a symbol of Native barbarianism and the triumph of American goodness, but like many stories of that era, the truth is far more complicated.This short book details the murders, her captivity, the aftermath, and her baffling return to her captors. Unravel the mystery of the woman who would become famous for all the wrong reasons and discover what her life story says about cultural identity, the power of resiliency, and what happens when fact and fiction bend and twist to muddy the waters.Read on to find out the truth!

    Written in a concise, bulleted outline format, this well-illustrated text offers 500 USMLE-style review questions, answers, and explanations and features comprehensive content and upgraded USMLE Step 1 information.

    Identity based politics had brought long-marginalized social groups into the mainstream and upended the bulwark of Nepali nationalism- the Hindu Monarchy. Yet, the process of change has repeatedly broken down, and Nepal’s fragile polity, under stress from various forces, has continuously fragmented- the first Constituent Assembly failed to draft a Constitution; the Maoists, who sparked the transformation with an armed insurrection and once represented hope, have been co-opted into the very political culture they once challenged; never-ending political negotiations have chronically paralyzed the governance initiatives needed to address Nepal’s problems; and India, the country’s powerful neighbor, has played an overwhelming role in national politics, choosing to intervene or stay away at crucial junctures. In exhaustively analyzing all these issues, Prashant Jha covers extensive territory, in the corridors of power in Kathmandu and New Delhi as well as on the ground in Tarai, and forges a narrative that is as comprehensive in its overview as it is detailed in chronicling the minutiae of day to day politics. An unprecedented account of the re-birth of a nation . Battles of the New Republic celebrates the deepening of democracy, despairs at the death of a dream, and seeks answers to a fundamental political dilemma- who exercises power, to what end, and for whose benefit?

    But behind this archetypal small-town landscape lies a complicated past.Starting with the town's founding as a religious promised land, music journalist and poet Daniel Wolff plots a course through 130 years of entwined social and musical history, touching on John Philip Sousa, Count Basie, Frank Sinatra, and Frankie Lymon on the way to the town Bruce was born to run from. Out of the details of local history-the boardwalk in the Gilded Age; the celebrities who passed through, from Stephen Crane to Martin Luther King; sensational murder trials; the birth of Mob control; and a devastating mid-century "race riot"-emerges a universal story of one small town's fortunes. Told with grace and full of fascinating detail, Daniel Wolff's tour across thirteen decades of the Fourth of July in Asbury Park captures all the allure and heartbreak of the American dream reduced to blight and decay, with gentrification as the one hope for a return to its glory days.

    In cultivating a deep understanding and appreciation of Objective-C, its frameworks and ecosystem, one is able to create apps that delight and inspire users. Combining articles from NSHipster.com with new essays, this book is the essential guide for modern iOS and Mac OS X developers.

    Will take 25-35 days

     The book begins with the history and origin and moves on to the rules of play and ways to win and avoid essential errors as well as the etiquette to follow. With everything from clear instructions on dealing, building, and distributing tiles to a look at the history and future of the game, this is the essential book for anyone who wants to have fun–and win–while playing mah–jongg.

    Over 100 additional new images are integrated into Volume I, and appear online as full size digital images with discussions written by the author. These bonus images are complemented by groundbreaking media support for students including video study tools and a robust eBook.

    The 16 project-based lessons show readers step-by-step the key techniques for working with InDesign CS6. Readers learn what they need to know to create engaging page layouts using InDesign CS6. This completely revised CS6 edition covers the new tools for adding PDF form fields, linking content, and creating alternative layouts for digital publishing. The companion CD includes all the lesson files that readers need to work along with the book. This thorough, self-paced guide to Adobe InDesign CS6 is ideal for beginning users who want to master the key features of this program. Readers who already have some experience with InDesign can improve their skills and learn InDesign's newest features. "The Classroom in a Book series is by far the best training material on the market. Everything you need to master the software is included: clear explanations of each lesson, step-by-step instructions, and the project files for the students." -Barbara Binder, Adobe Certified Instructor, Rocky Mountain Training Classroom in a Book(R), the best-selling series of hands-on software training workbooks, helps you learn the features of Adobe software quickly and easily. Classroom in a Book offers what no other book or training program does-an official training series from Adobe Systems Incorporated, developed with the support of Adobe product experts. All of Peachpit's eBooks contain the same content as the print edition. You will find a link in the last few pages of your eBook that directs you to the media files.Helpful tips:If you are able to search the book, search for "Where are the lesson files?"Go to the very last page of the book and scroll backwards.You will need a web-enabled device or computer in order to access the media files that accompany this ebook. Entering the URL supplied into a computer with web access will allow you to get to the files.Depending on your device, it is possible that your display settings will cut off part of the URL. To make sure this is not the case, try reducing your font size and turning your device to a landscape view. This should cause the full URL to appear.