Essentially, you are estimating a probability, but then updating that estimate based on other things that you know. This book is designed to give you an intuitive understanding of how to use Bayes Theorem. It starts with the definition of what Bayes Theorem is, but the focus of the book is on providing examples that you can follow and duplicate. Most of the examples are calculated in Excel, which is useful for updating probability if you have dozens or hundreds of data points to roll in.

    This is a book that will finally help an ordinary bloke lose weight. (Don't worry, it has nothing to do with wearing a red bandana.)Ever struggled with your weight? Or did you stop struggling years ago and let the pies win? Peter FitzSimons has been there and eaten that. In The Great Aussie Bloke Slim-Down, he will lead you through the fads that failed him, the diets that died fast and left him furious, and the ways his waistline kept the belt industry in business.Take tips from someone who knows how to eat and drink way too much. And how to stop. Peter FitzSimons was a large lad with little self-control who has found the light and finally become lighter. In this book he tells you how and shows you who is responsible for you getting fat in the first place. (Spoiler alert: It's you. And sugar.) Have you ever wondered which diet works? Well, Peter FitzSimons has devoted his adult life to trying all of them and failing miserably. But you may have noticed this man-mountain has lost a lot of his landspace over the last few years. This is the tale of how that happened and how it can happen to the bloke in your life.

     A Comprehensive List Of The Health Benefits Of Cross Training In Depth Terminology To Help You Understand And Master Exercise & Workout Abbreviations Recommended Cross Training Equipment (Get The Best ‘Bang’ For Your Buck) Beginner WODs Benchmark WODs Bodyweight WODs (**No Equipment Required**) Running WODs Rowing WODs Kettlebell WODs Olympic Lifting WODs Strongman WODs Heavy Maximum Exertion WODs Epic Endurance Challenges For The Seasoned Athlete Much, much more! Hurry! Download "Cross Training WOD Bible: 555 Workouts from Beginner to Ballistic" now - shouldn't your health & fitness be your #1 priority? --------- Tags: Cross Training, WODs, WOD Bible, Build Muscle, Fat Loss, Increase Endurance, Bodyweight Exercises, Kettle Bell

    There are more than 5000 fintech startups operating, and 50 of them have already reached a billion-dollar valuation. The scope of this market goes way beyond online payments. Financial technology promises to change the way we manage our money online, disrupting the landscape of the financial services industry is being disrupted. Understanding its many facets is the key to navigating the complex nuances of this global industry.Fintech in a Flash is your comprehensive guide to the future of banking and insurance. The book aims to break down the key concepts in a way that will help you understand every aspect so that you can take advantage of new technologies. Inside you’ll find an array of hot topics such as online payments, crowdfunding, challenger banks, online insurance, digital lending, big data, and digital commerce. It will make you rethink the way that you manage your money online, and even find new ways of making online payments. Comprehensive, organized, and detailed, this guide is your go-to source for everything you need to confidently navigate the ever-changing scene of this booming industry.If you decide to buy this book now, you'll get: Easy to understand explanations of the 14 main areas of fintech The author's view on the future of each of these areas Insight into the main fintech hubs in the world Insight into the so called Unicorns, the fintech firms that have made it past a $1 billion valuation More than 100 upcoming fintech companies to watch About the Author: Agustín Rubini is an argentinean-born economist, master in international business, and Director at Banking Innovations. Passionate about building the future of financial services, Agustín spends much of his time speaking and writing on financial technology and advising businesses on innovation and digital transformation. He is a specialist in driving changes in top class banks that want to lead in how customers manage their money online. Tags: fintech, financial technology, financial services technology, money online, online payment, online insurance, insurtech, investing online, wealth management online, wealthtech, regtech, cybercrime, digital lending, digital commerce, ecommerce, e-commerce. Get started immediately Download now and take the first step on your very own road to mastering fintech. Scroll to the top of the page and hit the buy button.

     - solid strategies to finance long term travel, both before you leave: BONUS REPORT: 7 Easy Ways to make an extra $500/month for your Travel Fund and while you travel. BUDGET TRAVEL: The Ultimate Guide - can help you save thousands of Dollars on travel bookings, experience foreign countries like a local - and even become a Digital Nomad if you would like to just travel for a few years and/or live in another country for a while. Becoming a Digital Nomad The author has lived the Digital Nomad livestyle for several years and is currently travelling through Africa and Australia. She is successfully running several online businesses - including a publishing company with several #1 Bestsellers - while travelling the world and living the life of her dreams. Her new company and travel blog - SassyZenGirl Lifestyle - is helping people achieve the travel freedom so many crave - without going broke or staying in crowded hostel dorm rooms. BUDGET TRAVEL: The Ultimate Guide contains a whole, extensive chapter on the many possibilities of Online Entrepeneurship - even if you have no experience at all - and how to first get started. How to get started as an Online Entrepreneur Working online provides the freedom to live anywhere in the world and explore ever new cultures and regions. BUDGET TRAVEL: The Ultimate Guide covers many different forms of building a freelance business - even if you think you have no relevant skills….. Also, advice on how to Start a TRAVEL BLOG as a BUSINESS and score discounts and free trips as well as a solid income for years to come. Get Paid to Travel If you are just starting out - or online entrepreneuship is not your thing - BUDGET TRAVEL: The Ultimate Guide provides a huge list of resources to find exciting jobs anywhere in the world. Whether it is working in National Parks, on Cruise Ships or Yachts, as an Adventure Guide or English Teacher - or even for an NGO, you will find valuable information here on how to get started. BUDGET TRAVEL: The Ultimate Guide covers all the tools you need to create amazing travel adventures for yourself and your family without spending a fortune and - if that’s your dream - the tools to become a long term traveller, free to go wherever you wish with sound strategies for financial sustenance that can keep you travelling for years to come. Here is what you get in detail: Part 1- Saving Money BIG Time! TRANSPORTATION - Airfare - Travel Hacking - free flights, anyone…? - Rental Cars - Trains & Buses - Cruiseship - Awesome Trip Planning Tools ACCOMMODATION - Free Accommodation - Discounts on Paid Accommodation

    There is no A-to-Z path, and there are no magic beans that will carry you upward overnight. Have you ever wondered how to start, scale up, build teams, and flourish in an uncontested market? I can tell you. I did it. In 1992, I landed in Estonia with $400 in my pocket. There, I discovered a truth that changed my life and the way I conducted business: You can make a lot of money as an entrepreneur by moving decisively in blue-sky markets - markets where you face very little competition and the tide can carry you to riches.Over the next decade and a half, I built a portfolio of businesses worth $200 million. Now, I want to share the paths that led me to success, passing on my knowledge to you. In Why Sell Tacos in Africa? I explain sixteen principles that allowed me to drive such tremendous growth. May you, too, find a blue-market and watch your business soar.

    In The Book on Making Money, he reveals what he learned while successfully hitting this goal for seven years in a row, growing his annual income to more than $1 million. Walking readers through the steps he took to reach his goal, Oliverez shows how they can apply the same techniques to greatly increase their own income, whether they work for someone else or run their own business. Oliverez spells out his disagreements with the traditional wisdom that tells young adults to go to school, get good grades and find a safe, steady job - advice that has left many Americans with tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in student loans, credit card debt or mortgages on homes they can't afford. He also assaults the idea of saving one’s way to wealth as absurd and counterproductive, using his own experience of trying to save money while poor as an example. Instead of promoting an austere lifestyle of clipping coupons and spending as little as possible, he shows how those habits can actually prevent people from becoming wealthy. Perhaps your goal is to create passive income, launch a startup or make money investing in the stock market. Maybe you're still an employee and you want to learn how to write a better resume, ask for a raise, and budget so you can get out of debt. This straight-forward guide will teach you how money works and give you the tools to achieve financial freedom.

    Addictions to smartphones, sex, games, social media, gambling, money, but most of all to alcohol and drugs. The words 'addict' and 'addiction' are loaded with baggage. Not just in Australia, but the world over, addicts are considered to be sub-human, if not alien. This book aims to reclaim their dignity. It aims to rescue the word 'addiction' from its kidnappers and restore its humanity. It offers personal accounts from inspirational people who have found themselves in the grips of such addictions, and their amazing stories of survival. At the Ted Noffs Foundation, Matt Noffs and Kieran Palmer spend their lives working with young people who have serious and often debilitating drug addictions. This book shares the tools they use every day. It offers insights into why addiction takes place and why it's a natural part of being human. It journeys across the spectrum of addictive behaviors, from social media to drugs like heroin. It questions the assumptions and begins to debunk the myth that all addiction is identical and predictable. Addiction is something that could affect any of us. This is a book that everyone should read.

    The best marketers concentrate on what they have to give. The way people consume media is changing, fast. Laptops, tablets, and smartphones keep us constantly connected to the web. This represents a huge opportunity for savvy marketers. The only problem: the old methods are no longer working. New media demands new advertising. Facebook is the single most effective platform for marketing in the Internet era, and Nicholas Kusmich is the best Facebook marketer in the world. In GIVE, he will show you what differentiates Facebook from traditional advertising and explain why it’s so important to promote your business in a way that’s congruent with the norms of social media. He’ll take you through a four-step process to pinpoint your market, master your message, create a magnet, and build a mechanism that both collects and helps you retain and develop those relationships. When used well, Nic’s Facebook advertising strategies can send your return on investment through the roof. In GIVE, you’ll find the tools you need to share your authentic voice with the people who want to hear it and turn their attention into satisfying, meaningful sales.

    This guide provides a quick reference to all of the key topics around early-stage startup valuation and provides step-by-step examples for several valuation methods. In more detail, this Founder’s Pocket Guide helps startup founders learn: What a startup valuation is and when you need to start worrying about it. Key terms and definitions associated with valuation, such as pre-money, post-money, and dilution. How investors view the valuation task, and what their expectations are for early-stage companies. How the valuation fits with your target raise amount and resulting founder equity ownership. How to do the simple math for calculating valuation percentages. How to estimate your company valuation using several accepted methods. What accounting valuation methods are and why they are not well suited for early-stage startups.

    

    This text is user-focused and has been highly updated including topics, pictures and examples. The Williams text contains less theory and more application to engage students who might be more familiar with technology. Continually published and updated for over 15 years, Using Information Technology was the first text to foresee and define the impact of digital convergence--the fusion of computers and communications. It was also the first text to acknowledge the new priorities imposed by the Internet and World Wide Web and bring discussion of them from late in the course to the beginning. Today, it is directed toward the "Always On" generation that is at ease with digital technology--comfortable with iPhones, MySpace, Facebook, Twitter, Wikipedia, and the blogosphere--but not always savvy about its processes, possibilities, and liabilities. This 8th edition continues to address the two most significant challenges that instructors face in teaching this course: -Trying to make the course interesting and challenging, and -Trying to teach to students with a variety of computer backgrounds. In addition, this text correlates with Simnet Online for full integration of resources within the Computing Concepts course.

    Fortunately, David Pogue is back, with the humor and expertise that have made this the #1 bestselling Mac book for eight years straight. You get all the answers with jargon-free introductions to:Big-ticket changes. A 64-bit overhaul. Faster everything. A rewritten Finder. Microsoft Exchange compatibility. All-new QuickTime Player. If Apple wrote it, this book covers it.Snow Leopard Spots. This book demystifies the hundreds of smaller enhancements, too, in all 50 programs that come with the Mac: Safari, Mail, iChat, Preview, Time Machine.Shortcuts. This must be the tippiest, trickiest Mac book ever written. Undocumented surprises await on every page.Power usage. Security, networking, build-your-own Services, file sharing with Windows, even Mac OS X's Unix chassis-this one witty, expert guide makes it all crystal clear.

    And at the heart of Bear's personal training regime are fast-paced, dynamic workouts that can be done anywhere by anyone - men and women, young and old - in just 30 minutes or less!Select your workout: choose from Kettlebell Resistance training, Bodyweight workouts or Primal Power stretch sessions. Try one of Bear's epic Hero workouts for his ultimate challenge of all three disciplines combined ...Learn the moves: select your express workout based on the time you have available - be it 3 minutes or 30 - and then, as Bear says, 'It's time to get BG fit!'Train hard but eat natural: follow Bear's simple and straightforward advice on fuelling your body for maximum success and sustained health benefits.Train more efficiently with fast and achievable results - a fitter, stronger, healthier you is just around the corner. Go on, it's your life - train for it!______What readers are saying about Your Life: Train For it:***** 'A fantastic book with clear and easy too follow instructions for each work out.' ***** 'Great and simple ways to fit fitness into even a busy life style.' ***** 'Accessible, affordable results with no gym.'

    Best-Selling Preparedness Author and Survival Retreat Consultant, Jonathan Hollerman, will present evidence that America as we know it could be destroyed from the loss of our nation's electric grid or other societal collapse scenarios. Many preparedness "experts" severely underestimate the threat posed by millions of starving, desperate people. This preparedness guide will help you develop a plan to escape the deadly rioting and looting, showing you where you can take your family to keep them safe, even if you can't afford a fully- stocked survival retreat. Hollerman's in-depth expertise and recommendations cover Bug Out Bags, SHTF Weapons, Tactical Gear, Survival Tools, Knives, Long Term Food Storage, Livestock, Bug Out Locations, Survival Retreat Recommendations, and much much more...