Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    

    What happens to them is beyond your most terrifying nightmares.You’re History: The discovery of a human skull panics a killer into a confession. Perhaps he should have waited for the coroner’s report.Cold-Blooded: Karen was the former wife of an American icon. But celebrity is no shield against a determined psychopath.The Janitor: When a preteen girl goes missing from a school, suspicion falls on the one person all of the female students are wary of – the creepy janitor.A Bullet for Your Broken Heart: Roy Joe had been dealt many tribulations in his life. None of them, though, was as bad as Carolyn.The Other Ripper: For years, Joan was thought to be a victim of Britain’s most notorious slayer. Her killer turned out to be a different psychopath entirely.Young Blood: Two teenagers meet up for a moonlight tryst in an abandoned building. One of them won’t make it out alive.Neighborhood Monster: It was a simple errand, a quick run to the store in a safe neighborhood. It should not have cost a little girl her life.Plus 10 more horrific true murder cases. Scroll up to grab a copy of Cold Cases: Solved Volume 1.

    Despite its relatively narrow focus, it is chock full of the pearls of clinical wisdom that students and practitioners treasure, and many of these lessons apply to medicine in general. The book was well characterized by a reviewer of an earlier edition for The New England Journal of Medicine: If only one book about surgery could be made available to physicians from all specialties, it should probably be Silen's recent revision of Cope's Early Diagnosis of the Acute Abdomen. Since the book first appeared more than 30 years ago, it has remained the classic treatise on the initial approach to abdominal pain. Because acute, severe abdominal pain is still a common problem whose misdiagnosis can result in quick death, each generation of beginning physicians is faced with the urgency of learning to make a diagnosis in this high anxiety situation and they appreciate the wise, humane, precisely detailed guidance offered by Cope and Silen. For the 21st Edition, Dr. Silen has again updated the text in a respectful but significant way. He has strengthened its emphasis on pitfalls in the interpretation of CT and ultrasound scans, on misadventures caused by over-reliance on blood tests and radiographs, and on careful history-taking to avoid the costs of inappropriate lab tests. He has also reviewed the data from a randomized clinical trial indicating that patients should receive adequate analgesia while awaiting a definitive diagnosis, a dictum that is contrary to traditional teaching

    He decried the internment of Japanese-Americans in World War Two, agitated against nuclear weapons, promoted vitamin C as a cure for the common cold and researched the idea of DNA.

    In the sequel to The Essential Earthman, the Washington Post columnist offers a harvest of sharp observations and humorous adventures gathered during a year in his garden, along with much down-to-earth advice on horticulture.

    The world of golf is at a crossroads. As tech­nological innovations displace traditional philosophies, the golfing community has splintered into two deeply combative factions: the old-school teachers and players who believe in feel, artistry, and imagination, and the technical minded who want to remake the game around data. In Golf’s Holy War, Brett Cyrgalis takes readers inside the heated battle playing out from weekend hackers to PGA Tour pros. At the Titleist Performance Institute in Oceanside, California, golfers clad in full-body sensors target weaknesses in their biomechanics, while others take part in mental exercises designed to test their brain’s psychological resilience. Meanwhile, coaches like Michael Hebron purge golfers of all technical infor­mation, tapping into the power of intuitive physical learning by playing rudimentary games. From historic St. Andrews to manicured Augusta, experimental com­munes in California to corporatized conferences in Orlando, William James to Ben Hogan to theoretical physics, the factions of the spiritual and technical push to redefine the boundaries of the game. And yet what does it say that Tiger Woods has orchestrated one of the greatest comebacks in sports history without the aid of a formal coach? But Golf’s Holy War is more than just a book about golf—it’s a story about modern life and how we are torn between resisting and embracing the changes brought about by the advancements of science and technology. It’s also an exploration of historical legacies, the enriching bonds of education, and the many interpretations of reality.

    It is a hands-on guide to learning about the natural environment of California. Subjects covered include California natural history and geology, native plants and animals, California's freshwater resources and ecosystems, forest and rangeland resources, conservation biology, and the effects of global warming on California's natural communities. The Handbook also discusses how to create and use a field notebook, natural resource interpretation, citizen science, and collaborative conservation and serves as the primary text for the California Naturalist Program.

    This latest book gives you a precise regimen for self-treatment along with extensive information on other resources now available to you.

    Schwartz, Ph.D., there is compelling scientific evidence that we no longer have to accept God on faith alone. Through a multidisciplinary approach, Harvard University-educated Dr. Schwartz blends psychology, quantum physics, and mathematics to examine the science of spirit. Faith and science are not mutually exclusive, and a better understanding of their relationship can lead us to recognize how God operates in everything.Trained in the scientific method as an "open-minded skeptic," Dr. Schwartz was taught how to raise questions, turn them into hypotheses, and design experiments to test them. He was not trained to consider the nature of God. And yet, his scientific research led him directly to the discovery of God's existence in intelligent evolution and everyday life.Scientifically rigorous and spiritually reassuring, this eye-opening book is a wake-up call for anyone who wonders about life's true meaning and who longs to believe in the existence of a universal intelligence.

    The truly accessible guides inspire and instruct readers and deliver all the information one needs to know about the featured subject. Expertly written with helpful diagrams, full-color photographs and illustrations, these 2 new titles give readers even more reasons to K I S S inexperience goodbye. User-friendly explanations of technical terms and equipment, clear step-by-step instructions, and full-color photography make this the ideal guide to digital photography. Find the right camera and accessories; master digital tricks, lighting and composition, while demystifying buzzwords, from pixels and jpegs to cropping and cloning.

    Linnea Smith went to Peru on an ecotourism vacation. She was so moved that she abandoned her thriving medical practice in Wisconsin to serve the Yagua Indians in the deepest part of the Amazon rainforest of Peru-alone.Taken straight from the pages of Dr. Smith’s journal, La Doctora offers readers a rare glimpse into the suspense and drama of practicing medicine in a culture far removed from the sophisticated supplies and supports of 20th-century medicine.Learn how Dr. Smith evolved from a “strange white woman” to an adopted member of the indigenous community. Her story of adventure, self-discovery and service creates inspiring testimony to one person’s power to make a lasting difference.

    The coloring book helps you memorize the anatomy content you need to know in both veterinary medicine and veterinary technology and gives you a fun way to review the information you have studied. All illustrations in the book are suitable for coloring and are of the highest quality, created by expert medical illustrators.Organized by body region, the book is divided into sections devoted to the head and neck; neck, back, and vertebral column; thorax; abdomen; pelvis; forlimb; and hindlimb.Numbered lead lines clearly identify structures to be colored and correspond to a numbered list beneath the illustration so you can easily visualize the veterinary anatomy. Plus, you can create your own color code using the numbered boxes provided for each illustration.Comprehensive veterinary anatomy coverage helps you reinforce your understanding of canine, feline, equine, porcine, ruminants, and avian anatomy.High quality illustrations make it easy for you to color in each anatomic region and review anatomic details.Self-study format provides a fun and interactive way to prepare for exams throughout your veterinary courses.Part of Elsevier's complete veterinary anatomy learning system, integrating core anatomy knowledge, engaging review, hands-on practice, and clinical application to give you a solid foundation for success!

    At his death last spring, Roueche left behind seven new narratives that have never been published in book form. This book collects these works along with one earlier classic--all relating true tales of strange illnesses, rare diseases, and the brilliant minds who race to understand and conquer them.

    Public concern about infectious disease is on the rise as newspapers trumpet the arrivals of new germs and the reemergence of old ones.In A Field Guide to Germs, Pulitzer Prize-winning science writer Wayne Biddle brings readers face to face with nearly one hundred of the best-known (in terms of prevalence, power, historical importance, or even literary interest) of the myriad pathogens that live in and around the human population. Along with physical descriptions of the organisms and the afflictions they cause, the author provides folklore, philosophy, history, and such illustrations as nineteenth century drawings of plague-induced panic, microscopic photographs of HIV and Ebola, and wartime posters warning servicemen against syphilis and gonorrhea.From cholera to chlamydia, TB to HIV, bubonic plague to Lyme disease, rabies to Congo-Crimean encephalitis, anthrax to Zika fever, and back to good old rhinitis (the common cold), A Field Guide to Germs is both a handy reference work to better understand today's headlines and a fascinating look at the astonishing impact of micro-organisms on social and political history.