Book picks similar to
Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and Health-Care Evaluation by David Spiegelhalter
science
stats
business
datascience
The Cell: Discovering the Microscopic World That Determines Our Health, Our Consciousness, and Our Future
Joshua Z. Rappoport - 2017
Your life, your thoughts, your diseases, and your health are all the function of cells.But what do you really know about what goes on inside you?The last time most people thought about cells in any detail was probably in high school or a college general biology class. But the field of cell biology has advanced incredibly rapidly in recent decades, and a great deal of what we may have learned in high school and college is no longer accurate or particularly relevant.The Cell: Inside the Microscopic World that Determines Our Health, Our Consciousness, and Our Future is a fascinating story of the incredible complexity and dynamism inside the cell and of the fantastic advancements in our understanding of this microscopic world.Dr. Joshua Z. Rappoport is at the forefront of this field, and he will take you on a journey to discover:A deeper understanding of how cells work and the basic nature of life on earth.Fascinating histories of some of the key discoveries from the seventeenth century to the last decade and provocative thoughts on the current state of academic research.The knowledge required to better understand the new developments that are announced almost weekly in science and health care, such as cancer, cellular therapies, and the potential promise of stem cells.The ability to make better decisions about health and to debunk the misinformation that comes in daily via media.Using the latest scientific research, The Cell illustrates the diversity of cell biology and what it all means for your everyday life.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Philip E. Tetlock - 2015
Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
How Many Licks?: Or, How to Estimate Damn Near Anything
Aaron Santos - 2009
And the beauty of it is that it's all approximate!Using Enrico Fermi's theory of approximation, Santos brings the world of numbers into perspective. For puzzle junkies and trivia fanatics, these 70 word puzzles will show the reader how to take a bit of information, add what they already know, and extrapolate an answer.Santos has done the impossible: make math and the multiple possibilities of numbers fun and informative. Can you really cry a river? Is it possible to dig your way out of jail with just a teaspoon and before your life sentence is up?Taking an academic subject and using it as the prism to view everyday off-the-wall questions as math problems to be solved is a natural step for the lovers of sudoku, cryptograms, word puzzles, and other thought-provoking games.
How to Solve It: A New Aspect of Mathematical Method
George Pólya - 1944
Polya, How to Solve It will show anyone in any field how to think straight. In lucid and appealing prose, Polya reveals how the mathematical method of demonstrating a proof or finding an unknown can be of help in attacking any problem that can be reasoned out--from building a bridge to winning a game of anagrams. Generations of readers have relished Polya's deft--indeed, brilliant--instructions on stripping away irrelevancies and going straight to the heart of the problem.
The Case of the Missing Moon Rocks
Joe Kloc - 2012
Decades ago, astronauts brought back 850 pounds of rocks from their lunar journeys; the U.S. gave some away as “goodwill” gifts to the world’s nations. Over time, many of them disappeared, stolen or lost in the aftermath of political turmoil, and offered for millions on the black market. Gutheinz, first as a NASA investigator and then the leader of a intrepid group of students, has dedicated his life to getting them back. Author Joe Kloc tells a wild story of geopolitics, crime, science, and one man’s obsession with keeping the moon out of the wrong hands.
Physics for Scientists and Engineers, Volume 1
Raymond A. Serway - 2003
However, rather than resting on that reputation, the new edition of this text marks a significant advance in the already excellent quality of the book. While preserving concise language, state of the art educational pedagogy, and top-notch worked examples, the Eighth Edition features a unified art design as well as streamlined and carefully reorganized problem sets that enhance the thoughtful instruction for which Raymond A. Serway and John W. Jewett, Jr. earned their reputations. Likewise, PHYSICS FOR SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS, will continue to accompany Enhanced WebAssign in the most integrated text-technology offering available today. In an environment where new Physics texts have appeared with challenging and novel means to teach students, this book exceeds all modern standards of education from the most solid foundation in the Physics market today.
Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin
Stephen Jay Gould - 1996
Although valuable, the risk is that we ignore variations and end up with a skewed view of reality. In evolutionary terms, the result is a view in which humans are the inevitable pinnacle of evolutionary progress, instead of, as Stephen Jay Gould patiently argues, "a cosmic accident that would never arise again if the tree of life could be replanted." The implications of Gould's argument may threaten certain of our philosophical and religious foundations but will in the end provide us with a clearer view of, and a greater appreciation for, the complexities of our world.
The Power of Experiments: Decision Making in a Data-Driven World
Michael Luca - 2020
Once an esoteric tool for academic research, the randomized controlled trial has gone mainstream. No tech company worth its salt (or its share price) would dare make major changes to its platform without first running experiments to understand how they would influence user behavior. In this book, Michael Luca and Max Bazerman explain the importance of experiments for decision making in a data-driven world.Luca and Bazerman describe the central role experiments play in the tech sector, drawing lessons and best practices from the experiences of such companies as StubHub, Alibaba, and Uber. Successful experiments can save companies money--eBay, for example, discovered how to cut $50 million from its yearly advertising budget--or bring to light something previously ignored, as when Airbnb was forced to confront rampant discrimination by its hosts. Moving beyond tech, Luca and Bazerman consider experimenting for the social good--different ways that govenments are using experiments to influence or "nudge" behavior ranging from voter apathy to school absenteeism. Experiments, they argue, are part of any leader's toolkit. With this book, readers can become part of "the experimental revolution."
Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, Lego, and Rubber Ducks
Will Kurt - 2019
But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that.This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples.By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to:- How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief- Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for- Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions- Calculate distributions to see the range of your data- Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from themNext time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.
Young Einstein: From the Doxerl Affair to the Miracle Year
L. Randles Lagerstrom - 2013
In 1905 an unknown 26-year-old clerk at the Swiss Patent Office, who had supposedly failed math in school, burst on to the scientific scene and swept away the hidebound theories of the day. The clerk, Albert Einstein, introduced a new and unexpected understanding of the universe and launched the two great revolutions of twentieth-century physics, relativity and quantum mechanics. The obscure origin and wide-ranging brilliance of the work recalled Isaac Newton’s “annus mirabilis” (miracle year) of 1666, when as a 23-year-old seeking safety at his family manor from an outbreak of the plague, he invented calculus and laid the foundations for his theory of gravity. Like Newton, Einstein quickly became a scientific icon--the image of genius and, according to Time magazine, the Person of the Century.The actual story is much more interesting. Einstein himself once remarked that “science as something coming into being ... is just as subjectively, psychologically conditioned as are all other human endeavors.” In this profile, the historian of science L. Randles Lagerstrom takes you behind the myth and into the very human life of the young Einstein. From family rifts and girlfriend troubles to financial hardships and jobless anxieties, Einstein’s early years were typical of many young persons. And yet in the midst of it all, he also saw his way through to profound scientific insights. Drawing upon correspondence from Einstein, his family, and his friends, Lagerstrom brings to life the young Einstein and enables the reader to come away with a fuller and more appreciative understanding of Einstein the person and the origins of his revolutionary ideas.About the cover image: While walking to work six days a week as a patent clerk in Bern, Switzerland, Einstein would pass by the famous "Zytglogge" tower and its astronomical clocks. The daily juxtaposition was fitting, as the relative nature of time and clock synchronization would be one of his revolutionary discoveries in the miracle year of 1905.
The Mathematics of Poker
Bill Chen - 2006
By the mid-1990s the old school grizzled traders had been replaced by a new breed of quantitative analysts, applying mathematics to the "art" of trading and making of it a science. A similar phenomenon is happening in poker. The grizzled "road gamblers" are being replaced by a new generation of players who have challenged many of the assumptions that underlie traditional approaches to the game. One of the most important features of this new approach is a reliance on quantitative analysis and the application of mathematics to the game. This book provides an introduction to quantitative techniques as applied to poker and to a branch of mathematics that is particularly applicable to poker, game theory, in a manner that makes seemingly difficult topics accessible to players without a strong mathematical background.
Foundations in Microbiology
Kathleen Park Talaro - 1992
It uses a taxonomic approach for the study of pathogens.
The Visual Display of Quantitative Information
Edward R. Tufte - 1983
Theory and practice in the design of data graphics, 250 illustrations of the best (and a few of the worst) statistical graphics, with detailed analysis of how to display data for precise, effective, quick analysis. Design of the high-resolution displays, small multiples. Editing and improving graphics. The data-ink ratio. Time-series, relational graphics, data maps, multivariate designs. Detection of graphical deception: design variation vs. data variation. Sources of deception. Aesthetics and data graphical displays. This is the second edition of The Visual Display of Quantitative Information. Recently published, this new edition provides excellent color reproductions of the many graphics of William Playfair, adds color to other images, and includes all the changes and corrections accumulated during 17 printings of the first edition.
Emotional Intelligence: Exploring the Most Powerful Intelligence Ever Discovered
Benjamin Smith - 2016
This process of introspection and self-reflection is never easy. It requires the ability to understand and handle your emotions in a healthy manner, and this always takes time and patience. That is why this book, “Emotional Intelligence: Exploring the Most Powerful Intelligence Ever Discovered,” has been written just for you. This book is meant to help make the process of emotional development clearer and smoother. Our lives are filled with constant and continual situations where communication with others is necessary. Your ability to communicate effectively and successfully with others is what sets you apart from animals. However, how many of us actually take the time to think about just how important the way we communicate is? In what ways can we become better able to communicate? This would be a good time to introduce you to the concept of emotional intelligence. Emotional intelligence, or EI, is defined as the ability to recognize, control, and express your emotions in a way that enables you to handle interpersonal relationships empathetically and judiciously. Emotional intelligence is what enables you to recognize how others are feeling in a given situation, differentiate the myriad of emotions, and act accordingly. It is only through emotional intelligence that we are able to adjust our emotions as we go through life, thus reaching whatever goals we have set. Nobody can claim that they do not have emotional intelligence. The only difference is that people exhibit varying levels of EI – some are simply more emotionally intelligent than others. However, it is not something that is fixed from birth to death. There are steps and actions you can take to become more intelligent emotionally. In fact, if there is one feature of personal development that most people need to work on, it is their emotional intelligence. Research has proven that those individuals who have a higher emotional quotient, or EQ, tend to make better leaders, enjoy a better quality of personal and professional relationships, and are more mentally healthy. All you need to do to increase your emotional quotient is take the time to put into practice the tips and strategies outlined in this book. In here, you will learn how to know yourself better so that you can understand others better. You will learn how your emotional brain works, and how emotional intelligence can be improved. There are some great tools and tips described in this book, so make sure that you are ready to learn and practice them. Get ready to also learn about some of the new discoveries in the field of emotional intelligence. Scroll to the top of this page and click the " Buy Now With One-Click " Button to start your journey on EI
Cheat Sheet: Master Getting Things Done...In 2 Minutes - The Practical Summary of David Allen's Best Selling Book
2 Minute Insight - 2014
To get the book's methods to work for you in real life, research shows it takes an average of 66 days of consistent practice for a new skill to become a habit. Cheat Sheet: Master Getting Things Done ...In 2 Minutes... is a fast reference tool that captures this organizational system in a concise, step-by-step format that help you embed the concepts while providing rapid refresher when you need it most. It is designed for:
1.) The busy individual familiar with the system and serious about habit change 2.) The newcomer who values time spent on EXECUTION, not reading.
Key Benefits: • Excellent compact summary of the basic principles of the Get Things Done system in a fast, convenient format. • Saves you precious time from re-reading the book to re-absorb, remember and categorize concepts. We did all the work for you. • Contains illustrated work flow map to follow during THE critical 2 hour weekly review.
• Keep the topic relevant and in front of you for times you fall off the program. More than just a book summary, pull up this organization tool to coach you through the entire process. Life just got easier as you cross off tasks after task; achieve multiple goals and milestones, all the while functioning with a clear mind and a sense of relaxed control.
This reference summary is designed to be purchased along side the reviewed title Getting Things Done: The Art of Stress Free Productivity.