Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    He's been a bird-watcher for over thirty years. He's probably the only person ho could have written this book. Only he combines the inside knowledge with the tactlessness and lack of decency required to spill the beans. The misery, the scandal, the heartbreak of bird-watching - it's all in BILL ODDIE'S LITTLE BLACK BIRD BOOK.

    WHO WAS THOMAS PAINE?Thomas Paine is known as one of the Fathers of the American Revolution. His landmark work, ‘Common Sense’, is known as the major inspiration for the ‘Declaration of Independence’, and his ‘Crisis’ pamphlet series was a favourite of George Washington to read out loud to inspire his troops at Valley Forge.Paine’s work is passionate, radical, yet accessible; covering his strong beliefs in Independence, Personal Liberty, Politics, Religion and Government. Hugely successful and inspiring strong polarisation in their times, they are still must-reads today, still highly debated and revered.THE 'MUST-HAVE' COMPLETE COLLECTIONIn this irresistible collection you get a full set of this amazing work.YOU GET:*COMMON SENSE - the famous work that inspired the American colonists with a demand and call for freedom from British rule. Also notable, that when adjusted for the population size of 1776, ‘Common Sense’ has the largest sales and circulation of any book in American history.*THE AMERICAN CRISIS - a series of pamphlets published from 1776 to 1783 written to motivate the Troops during the revolution, to spur them to victory. The language is powerful and emotional, and reflects Paine's liberal philosophies. The first lines are the famous: “These are times that try men’s souls.”*THE RIGHTS OF MAN (PART I and PART II) – a radical set of books that argues that political revolution is required when a government does not safeguard its people.*THE AGE OF REASON (PART I and PART II) - a deistic work, about institutionalized religion, and Paine’s strong views concerning it.*LETTERS and MISCELLANEOUS WRITINGS – A FULL SET of Paine’s must-read letters and assorted short works from Paine, Including his famous ‘LETTER TO GEORGE WASHINGTON’ and his last work ‘AGRAGIAN JUSTICE’YOUR FREE BONUSESIn addition, you get Free Special Bonuses:*THOMAS PAINE, BIOGRAPHY – A fascinating 10 page biography, detailing Paine’s unbelievable, often sad, and often controversial life. *Works presented as far as possible in original publication date order so you can follow Paine’s growth as a writer and philosopher*Easy TABLE OF CONTENTS so you can easily jump to any book, chapter or letter in the collection.YOUR NEW WINDOW INTO THOMAS PAINEImagine the wonder of having this fantastic, enviable collection, that rivals many libraries, right at your fingertips. Imagine the pleasure of discovering more about Paine’s one of a kind works.DON’T MISS OUT!As you read this, you understand why you want this edition, because it is the best, most complete Thomas Paine collection you can get. You want the most complete collection so don’t deny yourself! And don't accept other collections that are lacking. And available on the Kindle, this big collection is yours for next to nothing.

    From his perch as a staff writer at The New Yorker, Cuppy observed the world and found a great deal that annoyed him. This collection of essays on animals includes "Birds Who Can't Even Fly," "Optional Insects," "Octopuses and Those Things", and "How to Swat a Fly," which codifies the essentials in ten hilarious principles. And three essays on wombats. Perfect reading for the perplexed, befuddled, and perpetually irritated.

    This book relies on the latest information from cryptozoologists, experts who study these mysterious beings, and the counter-arguments are explored from experts who strongly believe they do not exist. Stories from eyewitnesses are recounted, as well. Included in the book are Bigfoot (Sasquatch), Loch Ness monster, Mokele Mbembe (Africa), Kongamato, Shunka Warak'in, Mapinguari (South America), giant squids, mermaids, coelocanthes, and more. An extensive For Further Investigation section, offering readers more places to find information, will conclude the book.

     The Soul of the Rhino is the spirited yet humble account of Mishra’s unique personal journey. Fresh out of university in the 1970s, Mishra embarks on his conservation work with the help of an ornery but steadfast elephant driver, the Nepalese royal family, and handfuls of  like-minded scientists whose aim is to protect the animal in the foothills of the Himalayas. Yet, in spite of decades spent creating nature reserves and moving rhinos to protected areas, arm-wrestling politicians, and raising awareness for the cause, Mishra is still fearful about the future of the Indian Rhino. To this day, Nepal is overrun by armed insurgents, political violence, and poachers who could kill off this magnificent creature for good.   Filled with candor and bittersweet humor, Mishra re-creates his journey on behalf of the rhino, an ugly yet enchanting, terrifying yet delicate creature. The first book of its kind to delve into the multi-layered political labyrinths of South Asian wildlife conservation, and one man’s endurance in the face of it all, The Soul of the Rhino is sure to win over yourheart and soul.

    In this fun and informative guide, her first for puppies, she teaches you how to navigate each stage of a puppy's growth, from the first weeks through adolescence. You'll learn:- puppy-proofing your home- toilet training- building leash-walking and play skills- preventing nipping and excessive barking- caring for your puppy's health- and more!

    From New England aquarium tanks to the reefs of French Polynesia and the Gulf of Mexico, she has befriended octopuses with strikingly different personalities—gentle Athena, assertive Octavia, curious Kali, and joyful Karma. Each creature shows her cleverness in myriad ways: escaping enclosures like an orangutan; jetting water to bounce balls; and endlessly tricking companions with multiple “sleights of hand” to get food.Scientists have only recently accepted the intelligence of dogs, birds, and chimpanzees but now are watching octopuses solve problems and are trying to decipher the meaning of the animal’s color-changing techniques. With her “joyful passion for these intelligent and fascinating creatures” (Library Journal Editors’ Spring Pick), Montgomery chronicles the growing appreciation of this mollusk as she tells a unique love story. By turns funny, entertaining, touching, and profound, The Soul of an Octopus reveals what octopuses can teach us about the meeting of two very different minds.

    

    The Perfection Point is ideal for sports fans interested in the scientific basis of athletic excellence and a fascinating read for science fans interested in the physics of sports.

    When the storm quiets, his aunt Rachel decides to take him on a walk to see the beauty of the natural world at night. Over his Godzilla pj's goes his rain slicker; onto his feet go his monster boots, and together he and Rachel head down the rocky path to the sea. On the way they discover many marvels--a screech owl calling to its mate, ghost crabs tunneling in the sand, and most incredibly, the luminous life that lights up the water. When they find a tiny firefly who has lost its way, they bring it home and release it back into the woods. At last, Rachel tucks Roger into bed, telling him he is "nature's brave protector." An afterword introducing young readers to Rachel Carson, and explaining bioluminiscence, adds to the appeal of the book.

    in full color. "Milton understands what kids like about whales, and packs a considerable amount of information into the book. This easy-reader leaps with appeal."--Bulletin, Center for Children's Books.

    Meet Viv, who has a new home and a new school by the sea and follow her as she finds her way in a new place and helps bring together a whole community to save the sea turtles of the South Carolina coast.• Explores various important themes like activism, philanthropy, volunteerism, and more• Features gorgeous watercolor illustrations that are colorful and engaging• Includes a "Letter to Young Activists" from the author as well as resources to learn more about sea turtles.• Meilo So is the esteemed illustrator of many books, including Water Sings Blue. Philippe Cousteau is an award-winning television host, producer, author, speaker, philanthropist, and social entrepreneur. Deborah Hopkinson is the author of many award-winning nonfiction books for young readersFans of Manfish and Water Sings Blue will also enjoy the inspiring storyline and stunning illustrations in Follow the Moon Home.• Great family and classroom read-aloud book• Books for kids ages 4-6 • Children's picture books for kindergarten through third grade

    Through an exhaustive, evidence-based analysis of medical research, the study concludes that MS is a disease largely determined by lifestyle factors. Showing that people with MS who modify their diet, their exercise habits, and other aspects of their lifestyle can stabilize the illness and potentially recover, these recommendations will change the lives of thousands of people with MS and support their loved ones.

    There you will meet Brachiosaurus, Stegosaurus, and Diplodocus and learn how they ruled the earth millions of years ago. You'll see dinosaurs with over 1,000 teeth, dinosaurs who could swim, meat-eaters and plant-eaters. And, of course, you'll meet the king of all dinosaurs, the gigantic Tyrannosaurus rex. This nonfiction picture book is an excellent choice to share during homeschooling, in particular for children ages 4 to 6. It’s a fun way to learn to read and as a supplement for activity books for children.This is a Level 2 Let’s-Read-and-Find-Out Science title, which means the book explores more challenging concepts for children in the primary grades and supports the Common Core Learning Standards, Next Generation Science Standards, and the Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) standards. Let’s-Read-and-Find-Out is the winner of the American Association for the Advancement of Science/Subaru Science Books & Films Prize for Outstanding Science Series.