HOW RISKY IS IT, REALLY?International risk expert David Ropeik takes an in-depth look at our perceptions of risk and explains the hidden factors that make us unnecessarily afraid of relatively small threats and not afraid enough of some really big ones. This read is a comprehensive, accessible, and entertaining mixture of what's been discovered about how and why we fear — too much or too little. It brings into focus the danger of The Perception Gap: when our fears don't match the facts, and we make choices that create additional risks.This book will not decide for you what is really risky and what isn't. That's up to you. HOW RISKY IS IT, REALLY? will tell you how you make those decisions. Understanding how we perceive risk is the first step toward making wiser and healthier choices for ourselves as individuals and for society as a whole.TEST YOUR OWN "RISK RESPONSE" IN DOZENS OF SELF-QUIZZES!

    However, the integrity of an outstanding lesson will always be the same and this book attempts to bottle that formula so that you can recreate it time and time again.In his first book, Twitter phenomenon and outstanding teacher, Ross Morrison McGill provides a bank of inspirational ideas that can be picked up five minutes before your lesson starts and put into practice just as they are, or embedded into your day-to-day teaching to make every lesson an outstanding lesson! In his light-hearted and enthusiastic manner Ross guides you through the ideas he uses on a daily basis for managing behaviour, lesson planning, homework, assessment and all round outstanding teaching. Whether you are an experienced teacher or someone who has little practical teaching experience, there are ideas in this book that will change the way you think about your lessons.Ideas include: Snappy starters, Open classroom, Smiley faces, Student-led homework, Monday morning mantra and the popular five minute lesson plan.The 100 ideas series offers busy secondary teachers easy to implement, practical strategies and activities to improve and inspire their classroom practice. The bestselling series has been relaunched with a brand new look, including a new accessible dip in and out layout. Features include: Teachers tips, Taking it further tips, Quotes from the Ofsted framework and teachers, Bonus ideas, Hashtags and online resouces.

    A comprehensive introduction to the subject, this book shows in detail how such problems can be solved numerically with great efficiency. The focus is on recognizing convex optimization problems and then finding the most appropriate technique for solving them. The text contains many worked examples and homework exercises and will appeal to students, researchers and practitioners in fields such as engineering, computer science, mathematics, statistics, finance, and economics.

    Written for Learners of English by Harry GilbertRichard is bored with the quiet life of his village. He would like to have a motor-car and drive it . . . very fast. But Richard lives in a future world where there are no cars, only bicycles and small villages and green forests.And now he is twelve years old, and like the other children, he must do his Year of Sharing. He must live alone in the forest with the wild animals. He must learn to share his world; he must learn how animals live and eat and fight . . . and die.

    Bestselling authors Ian Stewart and Jack Cohen (The Collapse of Chaos, 1994) eloquently argue that our minds evolved within an inextricable link with culture and language. They go beyond conventional views of the function and purpose of the mind to look at the ways that the mind is the response of an evolving brain that is constantly adjusting to a complex environment. Along the way they develop new and intriguing insights into the nature of evolution, science, and humanity that will challenge conventional views on consciousness. The esteemed authors tantalize the reader with these bold new outlooks while putting a revolutionary spin on such classic philosophical problems as the nature of free will and the essence of humanity. This clearly written and enjoyable book will inspire any educated reader to critically evaluate the existing notions of the nature of the human mind.

    Dr. Beechick reminds parents that teaching is a process of passing on knowledge, not passing students through a system. You will become informed and confident in teaching math skills, reading comprehension, and the mechanics of writing, spelling, and grammar.

    With an accessible, straightforward approach. He guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. In addition, Sinclair explains the often-overlooked psychological aspects of trading, revealing both how behavioral psychology can create market conditions traders can take advantage of-and how it can lead them astray. Psychological biases, he asserts, are probably the drivers behind most sources of edge available to a volatility trader. Your goal, Sinclair explains, must be clearly defined and easily expressed-if you cannot explain it in one sentence, you probably aren't completely clear about what it is. The same applies to your statistical edge. If you do not know exactly what your edge is, you shouldn't trade. He shows how, in addition to the numerical evaluation of a potential trade, you should be able to identify and evaluate the reason why implied volatility is priced where it is, that is, why an edge exists. This means it is also necessary to be on top of recent news stories, sector trends, and behavioral psychology. Finally, Sinclair underscores why trades need to be sized correctly, which means that each trade is evaluated according to its projected return and risk in the overall context of your goals. As the author concludes, while we also need to pay attention to seemingly mundane things like having good execution software, a comfortable office, and getting enough sleep, it is knowledge that is the ultimate source of edge. So, all else being equal, the trader with the greater knowledge will be the more successful. This book, and its companion CD-ROM, will provide that knowledge. The CD-ROM includes spreadsheets designed to help you forecast volatility and evaluate trades together with simulation engines.

    Wolfram lets the world see his work in A New Kind of Science, a gorgeous, 1,280-page tome more than a decade in the making. With patience, insight, and self-confidence to spare, Wolfram outlines a fundamental new way of modeling complex systems. On the frontier of complexity science since he was a boy, Wolfram is a champion of cellular automata--256 "programs" governed by simple nonmathematical rules. He points out that even the most complex equations fail to accurately model biological systems, but the simplest cellular automata can produce results straight out of nature--tree branches, stream eddies, and leopard spots, for instance. The graphics in A New Kind of Science show striking resemblance to the patterns we see in nature every day. Wolfram wrote the book in a distinct style meant to make it easy to read, even for nontechies; a basic familiarity with logic is helpful but not essential. Readers will find themselves swept away by the elegant simplicity of Wolfram's ideas and the accidental artistry of the cellular automaton models. Whether or not Wolfram's revolution ultimately gives us the keys to the universe, his new science is absolutely awe-inspiring. --Therese Littleton

    We are living in an age where data comes in abundance, and thanks to the self-learning algorithms from the field of machine learning, we can turn this data into knowledge. Automated speech recognition on our smart phones, web search engines, e-mail spam filters, the recommendation systems of our favorite movie streaming services – machine learning makes it all possible.Thanks to the many powerful open-source libraries that have been developed in recent years, machine learning is now right at our fingertips. Python provides the perfect environment to build machine learning systems productively.This book will teach you the fundamentals of machine learning and how to utilize these in real-world applications using Python. Step-by-step, you will expand your skill set with the best practices for transforming raw data into useful information, developing learning algorithms efficiently, and evaluating results.You will discover the different problem categories that machine learning can solve and explore how to classify objects, predict continuous outcomes with regression analysis, and find hidden structures in data via clustering. You will build your own machine learning system for sentiment analysis and finally, learn how to embed your model into a web app to share with the world

    In this issue you will find out all there is to be known about Design Thinking, the different and creative approach to businesses everyday challenges.

    Its world-class authors provide guidance on all aspects of Bayesian data analysis and include examples of real statistical analyses, based on their own research, that demonstrate how to solve complicated problems. Changes in the new edition include:Stronger focus on MCMC Revision of the computational advice in Part III New chapters on nonlinear models and decision analysis Several additional applied examples from the authors' recent research Additional chapters on current models for Bayesian data analysis such as nonlinear models, generalized linear mixed models, and more Reorganization of chapters 6 and 7 on model checking and data collectionBayesian computation is currently at a stage where there are many reasonable ways to compute any given posterior distribution. However, the best approach is not always clear ahead of time. Reflecting this, the new edition offers a more pluralistic presentation, giving advice on performing computations from many perspectives while making clear the importance of being aware that there are different ways to implement any given iterative simulation computation. The new approach, additional examples, and updated information make Bayesian Data Analysis an excellent introductory text and a reference that working scientists will use throughout their professional life.

    Featuring pithy, humorous, and illuminating one-on-one songwriting lessons with Keith Richards of the Rolling Stones, Ray Davies of the Kinks, Andy Partridge of XTC, Arthur Lee of Love, Chan Marshall of Cat Power, Bob Stanley of Saint Etienne, Gruff Rhys of Super Furry Animals, and a host of others who run the gamut from unknown muses to cult icons to superstars-including Hodgkinson's lovable crew of ne'er-do-wells first introduced in Guitar Man-Song Man is at once an investigation into the most ephemeral of arts and a highly readable journey of discovery.

    Learner English has chapters focusing on major problems of pronunciation, grammar, vocabulary and other errors as well as new chapters covering Korean, Malay/Indonesian and Polish language backgrounds.

    The Authors Discuss The Mathematical Theory In Detail And Then Provide The Geometric Interpretation Necessary To Make 3D Math Intuitive. Working C++ Classes Illustrate How To Put The Techniques Into Practice, And Exercises At The End Of Each Chapter Help Reinforce The Concepts. This Book Explains Basic Concepts Such As Vectors, Coordinate Spaces, Matrices, Transformations, Euler Angles, Homogenous Coordinates, Geometric Primitives, Intersection Tests, And Triangle Meshes. It Discusses Orientation In 3D, Including Thorough Coverage Of Quaternions And A Comparison Of The Advantages And Disadvantages Of Different Representation Techniques. The Text Describes Working C++ Classes For Mathematical And Geometric Entities And Several Different Matrix Classes, Each Tailored To Specific Geometric Tasks. Also Included Are Complete Derivations For All The Primitive Transformation Matrices.

    Part 1, on propositional logic, is the old Introduction, but contains much new material. Part 2 is entirely new, and covers quantification and identity for all the logics in Part 1. The material is unified by the underlying theme of world semantics. All of the topics are explained clearly using devices such as tableau proofs, and their relation to current philosophical issues and debates are discussed. Students with a basic understanding of classical logic will find this book an invaluable introduction to an area that has become of central importance in both logic and philosophy. It will also interest people working in mathematics and computer science who wish to know about the area.