Essentially, you are estimating a probability, but then updating that estimate based on other things that you know. This book is designed to give you an intuitive understanding of how to use Bayes Theorem. It starts with the definition of what Bayes Theorem is, but the focus of the book is on providing examples that you can follow and duplicate. Most of the examples are calculated in Excel, which is useful for updating probability if you have dozens or hundreds of data points to roll in.

    - Detailed, illustrated instructions for selecting tools, paper, and ink; carving both linoleum and wood; and printing by hand in one color or more to achieve professional results - Techniques can be used for art prints, posters, signs, invitations, greeting cards, gift wrap, and fabric - Expert tips on registering, editioning, tearing down paper, and cleaning up - Includes an annotated gallery of finished prints that feature the artist's comments

    It's a struggle just to make ends meet and afford what they need right now. I think anyone can start to prepare for the future. My husband and I have a 4-figure annual income that isn't even close to hitting five figures. If we can do it, you can too. We're not just telling you how to do it, we're living it! Don't be put off by books, websites, and forums that lead you to think you have to buy expensive pre-packaged food storage, or foods that you're not familiar with. Stocking up doesn't have to be expensive or complicated. You can get started with just a few dollars a month. If, at the end of the book,you still don't think you can do it, send me an email and we'll talk. I've included my email address, my blog link, and we're working on a website.

    If you're short of time or need a quick gift for a birthday, keep this eBook handy - it's sure to become a lifesaver when you're in a pinch. Be sure to stock up on Lion Brand Imagine Yarn so you're always prepared to make a quick craft.Believe it or not, Lion Brand Imagine Yarn can be the sole supply for a bunch of creative projects. For instance, you can create a scarf by simply unwinding the yarn and creating a series of knots. These crafts to do with yarn are as varied as they are intricate. In this free eBook, you'll find delicate jewelry crafts, winter wearables and even a plant hanger. Decorate your home and accessorize your wardrobe, all you need is Lion Brand Imagine Yarn. Make gifts for friends and family members or create something you can keep - it's up to you. Either way, you won't get bored with this vast assortment of crafts with yarn.

    They come in many colorways and fiber contents--and they're everywhere. Best of all, they're versatile; you can use these fabulous fibers for a lot more than socks. You can make shawls!Learn how to work from a knitting chart; instructions for 15 striking shawls are charted "and "written outGet tips for choosing the right yarn--from fiber content to color--plus tips on using stitch markers, making shawls bigger, and moreMake great gifts; find a variety of knitted-shawl patterns to suit yourself and your friends

    Albright takes readers on a rich journey through the joys of all-natural fibers - materials that can make an incredible difference, both in your knitting and in the health of our planet.

    This lively, comprehensive book for the growing population of contemporary knitters is an invaluable guide to fiber quality, texture, color, and pattern resources. It provides a complete global overview, from the politics of knitting as economic opportunity in undeveloped areas to the communal pleasures of Internet knitting circles to the inspiring beauty of ethnic motif in mittens, scarves, socks, and other items. Lisa Myers profiles influential designers, celebrates the joys of knitting in solitude and the tactile pleaures of yarn, and provides patterns for projects including a Log Cabin Pillow, an "intellectually challenging" three-dimensional hat, a Mobius scarf, and even a Palm Pilot cover. Lisa Myers holds a Ph.D. in English literature and is the proprietor of Sophie's Yarns in Philadelphia.

    Is it hard? Yes. Is it worth it? Absolutely. After 15 years stuck behind a desk in the software industry, Bob Clagett walked away from a well paying, stable job to make the things he was interested in and show the world how to make them too. His company, I Like To Make Stuff, started as a hobby but quickly grew into a passion project. In "Making Time", Bob recounts his history and build up to becoming a full time content creator, and shares his process, experiences and mistakes from his first two years of self employment. The book covers topics from income streams to emotional exhaustion as well as Bob's thoughts on purpose and responsibility.

    For 10 years, Bindner has stayed one step ahead of the law; at every turn, he has challenged the police and FBI to make their case. Featuring the suspect's own words, "Stalemate" takes us into the complex realm of forensic investigation, bringing readers face-to-face with a man who may be playing a deadly game and winning.

    A business major with wild black hair, long polished fingernails, and a new Honda her loving father had bought her, Kim took good care of herself and looked forward to a bright future. But on her way home in the early morning darkness of that Ash Wednesday, Kim was abducted-and her mysterious kidnappers would be the last people to see her alive.Scorching BetrayalAs Kim's father, wealthy computer executive Tommy Antonakos, launched a widespread, feverish search for his daughter, he had no idea that her abductors were right under his nose. A cold mastermind had ordered had ordered Kim to be bound, gagged and left in the freezing basement of an abandoned house, hoping to extract ransom from her father. When the plans fell through, he and his henchman panicked, returned to the basement and doused a near-frozen Kim with gasoline, setting her on fire.Burned AliveWhen the fire was extinguished, all that was left of the lovely coed were her charred, lifeless remains. What would drive the kidnappers to commit such a cruel and senseless murder? How did their plans to cover their tracks result in another killing? And how were the murderers finally snared? Read all of the fascinating facts in a startling expose of extortion, murder, and ultimate justice.

    As such, I believe that it is of value to anyone who is interested in understanding accounting, from high school students to undergrads to MBAs to business executives." – Professor Paul Healy, Harvard Business SchoolFor anyone who has struggled with accounting comes this quick read like no other. Using a breakthrough visual system called Color Accounting™ this best-seller makes learning accounting easy. The book engages you in the story of an ambitious man being taught accounting and business by his wise grandfather. The parable brilliantly simplifies how accounting and business truly work, in such a way that anyone can really ‘get it’. Color Accounting strips away obscure detail and jargon – leaving you to focus on the essence of what you really need to know.You will literally see how accounting works in the many colorful diagrams that lead you through the setting up and running of a business - clarifying principles that you can apply to your own life and workplace. By reading The Color Accounting Parable you will learn to read and interpret Balance Sheets and Income Statements with confidence. Plus you will learn how to avoid 5 fatal mistakes that business owners often make. The authors are two certified accountants who worked for the largest accounting firm in the world. They draw on their experiences teaching at some of the most reputable universities, corporations, banks, law firms, not-for-profit organizations and government agencies in the United States and around the world.

    A low-carb diet is one of the simplest ways to lose weight and transform your body permanently. Eating a low-carb diet will help you manage your weight, let go of cravings for unhealthy junk food, and fight diabetes, high cholesterol, and depression. With quick, tasty recipes, and easy-to-follow meal plans, Low-Carb Diet for Beginners will show you how to easily start a low-carb diet, so you can finally achieve and maintain your ideal weight. With Low Carb-Diet for Beginners you'll finally be able to stop the painstaking counting of calories or feeling restricted to small portions, and instead enjoy every meal to the fullest. Low-Carb Diet for Beginners will make it easy to cut down on carbs and see amazing results with: * Dozens of simple and filling low-carb diet recipes, including Veggie-Packed Minestrone Soup, Crispy Parmesan Kale Chips, Roasted Salmon with Caramelized Leeks, and even Frosted Brownies * The science behind how a low-carb diet can increase your metabolism and reduce your food cravings, making it easier for you to eat less and burn more * Detailed information on hot topics such as good carbs vs. bad carbs, artificial sweeteners, and consumption of alcoholic beverages * A 7-day low-carb meal plan to take the guesswork out of a low-carb diet * Easy tips for grocery shopping, low-carb diet cooking, and handy lower-carb alternatives to have in your pantry Low-Carb Diet for Beginners will help you make the transition to a healthy, low-carb lifestyle and make permanent positive changes.

    Sharing her groundbreaking technique for straight-knit socks, Alice Curtis provides step-by-step instructions for 20 original patterns that feature a variety of yarns and an array of motifs ranging from cables to argyle. The possibilities for creative variations are endless, and each pattern can easily be adapted to any size. Get inspired and use your straight needles to knit stylish masterpieces that will keep your feet cozy and warm.

    Featuring more than 250 classic and contemporary stitch patterns, this updated guide includes instructions for knitters of all levels. From the basic knit and purl stitch to the seed stitch to a fanciful ladder pattern, each of the featured stitches is detailed with a color photograph and handy how-to instructions. Both new and classic yarn varieties are covered, and insider tips designed to facilitate personalization are featured throughout. For projects ranging from the simple to the ornate, this extensive catalog is brimming with stitch inspiration.

    This new book takes another approach, another angle: why Lino is on his way to sainthood. Often hilarious, but always with a point, Saint focuses on God’s grace in Lino’s life and shows how even a sinner like him can look forward to being a saint. As Lino himself puts it: “Instead of stories of small triumphs and many failures, this is a book to encourage you in your own triumphs. To realize you might not be as big a sinner as you think. And that with God's help, you might just become a saint.” Picking up where Sinner left off, Saint points the way to our end goal—holiness and sainthood—and does so in a way that entertains as well as inspires.The audio edition of this book can be downloaded via Audible.