Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    This text's applied approach addresses how and why a business operates. Students can then build upon their practical skills through examples, exercises and projects to help them gain a full understanding of how and why to develop a business plan. Each text is packaged with a Business Plan Booklet and CD-ROM, which are tied to end-of-part features, allowing students hands-on practice in creating a sound business plan. Through lively examples this text emphasizes key core skill areas including, Decision-Making and Planning, Teamwork, Technology, and Communication.

    Readerswill find information on frequency distributions; mean, median, and mode; range, variance, and standard deviation;probability; and more.-Emphasizes Microsoft Excel for number-crunching and computationsDownload a sample chapter.

    Follow two comical creatures as they go graph-crazy! Gonk the frog and his friend Chester have all kinds of questions-- do more of their friends like mud, or not? Who has the biggest feet? What color butterfly is most common?In order to answer these questions, the two friends make all kinds of charts-- and so can you!This funny look at graphs and charts introduces several major ways of organizing information-- bar graphs, pie charts, Venn diagrams, and more. With concrete, easy-to-understand examples and bright, cartoonish illustrations, The Great Graph Contest is a kid-friendly introduction to the basics of data visualization that will have you itching to make your own graphs!An author's note expands on the different kinds of charts pictured in the story, and instructions on making your own graphs and charts are included.

     In January, the cows stay in the barnyard, and the chickens don't lay many eggs. By March, you can tell spring is coming: the barn is filled with baby animals. Month by month, the animals at Maple Hill Farm sense the changing seasons and respond to the changes. Through gently humorous text and charming illustrations, Alice and Martin Provensen capture one year at their beloved Maple Hill Farm in a way sure to delight city slickers and country folk alike.

    This is a handy book for learning to spot common errors in reasoning.- For ages twelve through adult.- Fun to use -- learn skills you can use right away.- Peanuts, Dilbert, and Calvin and Hobbes cartoons.- Includes The Fallacy Detective Game.- Exercises with answer key.

    Text, illustrations, and suggested activities offer a common-sense approach to mathematic fundamentals for those who are slightly terrified of numbers.

    Jack Spielvogel's engaging, chronological narrative weaves the political, economic, social, religious, intellectual, cultural, and military aspects of history into a gripping story that is as memorable as it is instructive. Each chapter offers a substantial introduction and conclusion, providing students a context for these disparate themes. The clear narrative of a single gifted author makes it easy for students to follow the story of Western civilization. Spielvogel gives the book depth by including over 150 maps and excerpts of over 200 primary sources--including official documents, poems, and songs--that enliven the past while introducing students to source material that forms the basis of historical scholarship. Available in many split options: WESTERN CIVILIZATION, Comprehensive, 6th Edition (Chapters 1-29), ISBN: 0534646026; WESTERN CIVILIZATION, Volume I, To 1715, 6th Edition (Chapters 1-16), ISBN:0534646034; WESTERN CIVILIZATION, Volume II, Since 1500, 6th Edition (Chapters 13-29), ISBN:0534646042; WESTERN CIVILIZATION, Volume A: To 1500, 6th Edition (Chapters 1-12), ISBN: 0534646050; WESTERN CIVILIZATION, Volume B: 1300-1815, 6th Edition (Chapters 11-19), ISBN:0534646069; WESTERN CIVILIZATION, Volume C: Since 1789, 6th Edition (Chapters 19-29), ISBN: 0534646077; WESTERN CIVILIZATION, Since 1300, 6th Edition (Chapters 11-29), ISBN:0534646085.

    New co-authors--Irl Bivens and Stephen Davis--from Davidson College; both distinguished educators and writers.* More emphasis on graphing calculators in exercises and examples, including CAS capabilities of graphing calculators.* More problems using tabular data and more emphasis on mathematical modeling.

    Written originally for those elementary school teachers who knew little of common plants and animals, and even less about earth beneath their feet and the skies overhead, this book is for the most part as valid and helpful to day as it was when first written in 1911.

    In Intentional Talk: How to Structure and Lead Productive Mathematical Discussions , authors Elham Kazemi and Allison Hintz provide teachers with a framework for planning and facilitating purposeful math talks that move group discussions to the next level while achieving a mathematical goal.Through detailed vignettes from both primary and upper elementary classrooms, the authors provide a window into how teachers lead discussions and make important pedagogical decisions along the way. By creating equitable opportunities to share ideas, teachers can orient students to one another while enforcing that all students are sense makers and their ideas are valued. They examine students’ roles as both listeners and talkers, offering numerous strategies for improving student participation. Intentional Talk includes a collection of lesson planning templates in the appendix to help teachers apply the right structure to discussions in their own classrooms.

    This is the only guide that includes 5 previously administered, full-length ACT tests written by the actual test maker (including 2 NEW practice tests). Also included is ACT content and procedures you'll follow when actually taking the test, along with in-depth review of the optional Writing Test and how it is scored; examples of all the question types; and suggestions on how you might approach the questions. The supplemental CD features a complete electronic copy of Peterson's Cool Colleges 101 and additional online college planning resources from Peterson's.The only guide that includes 5 previously administered, full-length ACT tests written by the actual test maker (including 2 NEW practice tests)ACT content and procedures you'll follow when actually taking the testValuable information about tuition payment plansAll the question types you can expect to find on the ACTSuggestions on how you might approach the questions and Peterson's tried-and-true test-taking strategies and tips

    . . and almost as many ways to measure them!Marvelosissimo the Mathematical Magician is back -- and ready to explore the invention of length, weight, and volume measurements. After that, with another wave of his wand, the wizard introduces the world of metrics and makes it easy to understand the basic pattern of meters, liters, and grams. With Steven Kellogg's playful and delightfully detailed illustrations, measuring has never been such a blast!

    His moral animal fables have delighted young and old for centuries. This fabulous full-color edition of the classic Aesop features the original illustrations of Milo Winter. This unique collection features 126 of the best-loved fables, including such favorites as "The Town Mouse and the Country Mouse," "The Ants and the Grasshopper," "The Goose and the Golden Egg," "The Wolf in Sheep's Clothing," and "The Hare and the Tortoise" and all their wonderful and amusing animal characters. Now, with THE AESOP FOR CHILDREN, a whole new generation can appreciate and enjoy these whimsical tales. 9 1/2" x 11 3/4". Ages 6-10

    From the springtime frolic of Oscar, Cat-About-Town to the yuletide warmth of The Christmas Day Kitten, these stories-radiantly illustrated by Peter Barrett and Ruth Brown-are perennial favorites, and this new complete edition will make a wonderful gift for all readers, great and small.