Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    Unlike the prevailing medical approach of treating individual symptoms with the familiar 'anti' drugs - such as antibiotics, antihistamines, and antidepressants - Dr Hotze addresses the underlying causes of poor health. Built around a regimen of biologically identical hormones and other natural treatments, Dr Hotze's model will help you obtain and maintain health and wellness naturally so that you can enjoy a better quality of life. In this book you are shown how to reach and maintain optimal cell, tissue, and organ functioning so that you will feel at your peak physically, mentally, and emotionally. After your twenties, your hormone levels have already peaked and begun a slow, inexorable decline that may cause you to lose energy and gain weight. You may experience mood problems or have difficulty with thinking, concentration, and short-term memory. Your immune system is likely to become less efficient, leaving you vulnerable to infectious diseases. Dr Hotze reveals how you can restore hormones to their optimal levels using natural, biologically identical hormones in a safe, effective way that preserves vitality as you mature. In his eight-point treatment program, Dr Hotze addresses the entirety of your wellness: airborne allergies, food allergies, yeast overgrowth, low thyroid function, natural hormone replacement, treatment of adrenal fatigue, nutritionally balanced eating, and vitamin and mineral supplementation. He reveals how most illnesses are due to poor dietary habits and nutrition, lack of exercise, allergic disorders that weaken the immune system and make it more prone to infection, yeast overgrowth due to overuse of antibiotics, an imbalance and decline in the body's production of thyroid and sex hormones, and stressed adrenal glands. All of these factors can be addressed safely, effectively, and naturally without drugs.

    At 70,000 words and 450 pages, The Anxious Truth goes well beyond just telling that that you'll get better. It actually shows you exactly how! You're anxious all the time, experiencing panic attacks over and over, and maybe afraid to leave your house or to be left alone for even a few minutes. You are avoiding simple things like driving, eating in restaurants, attending family functions, or going to the supermarket. You are terrified of the next wave of anxiety or the next panic attack. Your anxiety problems are ruining your relationships, your family life, and your career. Your anxiety problems have you afraid, confused, lost, and feeling hopeless. How did you get here? What went wrong? You've tried so many things, but nothing has cured your anxiety? What can you do now?This book, written by a former anxiety sufferer, best-selling author of "An Anxiety Story", and host of The Anxious Truth podcast will walk you through exactly how you got to where you are today, why you are not broken or ill, and what the true nature of your anxiety disorder is. Next, the book will walk you through what it takes to solve your anxiety problems, how to make an anxiety recovery plan, then how to correctly execute that plan.The Anxious Truth isn't always what you want to hear, but it's what you NEED to hear in order to solve this problem once and for all and move toward the life you so desperately want. Based firmly on the principles of cognitive behavioral therapies that have been shown over decades to be most effective in treating anxiety problems, the Anxious Truth will teach you how to move past your anxiety symptoms, past endless digging for hidden "root causes", and into an action oriented plan that will help your brain un-learn the bad reaction and fear habits that have gotten you into this predicament. The Anxious Truth will take the cognitive mechanism that got you into a corner, throw it in reverse, and use it to your advantage, backing you out of this jam and into a life free from irrational fear and needless avoidance.More than just a book, The Anxious Truth goes hand-in-hand with The Anxious Truth podcast (theanxioustruth.com) and the growing and vibrant social media community surrounding it. Read the book, listen to five years worth of free podcasts chock full of helpful advice and information, and join a large online community of fellow anxiety sufferers that are done talking about this problem and ready to actually take action to solve it. Change is possible. No matter how long you've suffered with your anxiety issues, you can get better. The Anxious Truth will tell you what you need to hear and will arm you with the information, understanding, and skills you need to get the job done.Let's do this together!

    It contains the Jewish nursery blueprint, complete with panic room, fireproof wallpaper and guardian ninja, the top-ten list of Jewish 'dont's', the complete timeline of Jewish expulsion, and much more.

    Ratey provides insight into the basic structure and chemistry of the brain, and demonstrates how its systems shape our perceptions, emotions, and behavior. By giving us a greater understanding of how the brain responds to the guidance of its user, he provides us with knowledge that can enable us to improve our lives.In A User’s Guide to the Brain, Ratey clearly and succinctly surveys what scientists now know about the brain and how we use it. He looks at the brain as a malleable organ capable of improvement and change, like any muscle, and examines the way specific motor functions might be applied to overcome neural disorders ranging from everyday shyness to autism. Drawing on examples from his practice and from everyday life, Ratey illustrates that the most important lesson we can learn about our brains is how to use them to their maximum potential.

    I’m Tim. I’m a single cell in society’s body. U.S. society, to be specific.So let me explain why we’re here.As a writer and a generally thinky person, I’ve spent a lot of my life thinking about the society I live in, and societies in general. I’ve always imagined society as a kind of giant human—a living organism like each of us, only much bigger.When you’re a single cell in the body of a giant, it’s hard to understand what the giant’s doing, or why it is the way it is, because you can’t really zoom out and look at the whole thing all at once. But we do our best.The thing is, when I’ve recently tried to imagine what society might look like, I haven’t really been picturing this:Giant stick figure: "I am grown up."Based on what I see around me, in person and online, it seems like my society is actually more like this:Giant stick figure throwing a giant tantrum because their chocolate ice cream fell on the ground.Individual humans grow older as they age—but it kind of seems like the giant human I live in has been getting more childish each year that goes by.So I decided to write a blog post about this. But then something else happened.When I told people I was planning to write a post about society, and the way people are acting, and the way the media is acting, and the way the government is acting, and the way everyone else is acting, people kept saying the same thing to me.Don’t do it. Don’t touch it. Write about something else. Anything else. It’s just not worth it.They were right. With so many non-controversial topics to write about, why take on something so loaded and risk alienating a ton of readers? I listened to people’s warnings, and I thought about moving on to something else, but then I was like, “Wait what? I live inside a giant and the giant is having a six-year-old meltdown in the grocery store candy section and that’s a not-okay thing for me to talk about?”It hit me that what I really needed to write about was that—about why it’s perilous to write about society."

    At a glance, it bears few similarities to any place we know and inhabit. But upon closer examination, the differences between this complex virtual reality and our own might not be as vast as we think. In “How You Play the Game,” author and philosopher Charlie Huenemann looks philosophically at the game of Minecraft (“What is the point of this game? How does one win? Well, this depends on what you want to do”) and grapples with the ethical conundrums, existential crises and moral responsibilities of the virtual realm. From the Overworld to the Ender Dragon, Huenemann offers an entertaining, insightful and often hilarious examination of Minecraft and the strange worlds—both virtual and not—surrounding it.Charlie Huenemann is a Professor of Philosophy at Utah State University. He writes for 3quarksdaily, and has published several books on the history of philosophy.Cover design by Adil Dara.

    In Shapeshifters, physician and writer Gavin Francis considers the inevitable changes all of our bodies undergo -- such as birth, puberty, and death, but also laughter, sleeping, and healing-and those that only some of our bodies will: like getting a tattoo, experiencing psychosis, suffering anorexia, being pregnant, or undergoing a gender transition. In Francis's hands, each event becomes an opportunity to explore the meaning of identity and the natures-biological, psychological, and philosophical-of our selves. True to its own subject, Shapeshifters combines Francis's lyrical imagination and deep knowledge of medicine and the humanities for a life-altering read.

    By understanding the neurological and psychological effects of porn, you’ll be in a better position to confidently tackle and overcome your attraction and dependence on it.This book does not include hokey language, overly pat solutions, grandiose promises, or useless finger wagging. Instead, it's packed with accessible, easy to understand information and a practical, research-backed action plan, that, rather that magically "curing" you of your habit, will simply help you become the kind of guy who doesn’t need to look at porn anymore. If that's the guy you want to become, what are you waiting for? Pick up your copy of How to Quit Porn today.

    His journey took 78 days and saw him trek over the Altai Mountains, the Gobi Desert and the Mongolian Steppe. It was an expedition filled with danger and extreme conditions. He almost didn't make it.A year later, Ash spent more than five months traversing the length of Madagascar via its eight highest peaks and through the civil unrest that was brewing in the south. It was another world first.In Mission: Possible, Ash reveals the spirit, planning, training and sheer determination that went into these two record-breaking feats. Along the way, we discover how a young man from Wales transformed himself into one of the world's most acclaimed and exciting young adventurers. It is an inspirational story.

    The answers will surprise and delight you as Alexandra Horowitz, a cognitive scientist, explains how dogs perceive their daily worlds, each other, and that other quirky animal, the human.Temple Grandin meets Stephen Pinker in this engaging and informative look at what goes on inside the minds of dogs—from a cognitive scientist with a background at The New Yorker.With more than 52 million pet dogs in America today, it’s clear we are a nation of unabashed dog-lovers. Yet the relationship between dogs and humans remains a fascinating mystery, as no one really knows what goes on in the canine mind. Now, in Inside of a Dog, Alexandra Horowitz fuses her perspectives as both scientist and dog-owner to deliver a fresh look at the world of dogs—as seen from the animal’s point of view. Inspired by her years of living with her own dog, Pumpernickel, who was a constant source of delight and mystery, Horowitz’s mind became filled with questions and ideas. In crisp, clear prose, she draws on her research in the field of dog cognition to give readers a sense of a dog’s perceptual and cognitive abilities—and paints a picture of what the canine experience is like. Horowitz’s own scientific journey, and the insights she uncovered, allowed her to understand her dog better and appreciate her more.Containing up-to-the minute research and providing many moments of dog-behavior recognition, this lively and absorbing book helps dog owners to see their best friend’s behavior in a different, and revealing light, allowing them to understand their pets and enjoy their company even more.

    In The Botany of Desire, Michael Pollan ingeniously demonstrates how people and domesticated plants have formed a similarly reciprocal relationship. He masterfully links four fundamental human desires—sweetness, beauty, intoxication, and control—with the plants that satisfy them: the apple, the tulip, marijuana, and the potato. In telling the stories of four familiar species, Pollan illustrates how the plants have evolved to satisfy humankind’s most basic yearnings. And just as we’ve benefited from these plants, we have also done well by them. So who is really domesticating whom?

    However, it is one of the basic principles of quantum theory, the most widely accepted explanation of the subatomic world - and one of the fascinating subjects dealt with in Equations of Eternity.

    

    His influence on 20th-century thinking and issues is arguably unparalleled, affecting attitudes on sex, religion, art, culture, and more. Written for the layperson, Freud for Beginners explains the doctor's dogma with wit and clarity, all in a contemporary context.