He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

    But all too often, even the most respected publications present numbers that are miscalculated, misinterpreted, hyped, or simply misleading. Following on the heels of his highly acclaimed Damned Lies and Statistics and More Damned Lies and Statistics, Joel Best now offers this practical field guide to help everyone identify questionable statistics. Entertaining, informative, and concise, Stat-Spotting is essential reading for people who want to be more savvy and critical consumers of news and information.Stat-Spotting features:* Pertinent examples from today's news, including the number of deaths reported in Iraq, the threat of secondhand smoke, the increase in the number of overweight Americans, and many more* A commonsense approach that doesn't require advanced math or statistics

    R in a Nutshell provides a quick and practical way to learn this increasingly popular open source language and environment. You'll not only learn how to program in R, but also how to find the right user-contributed R packages for statistical modeling, visualization, and bioinformatics.The author introduces you to the R environment, including the R graphical user interface and console, and takes you through the fundamentals of the object-oriented R language. Then, through a variety of practical examples from medicine, business, and sports, you'll learn how you can use this remarkable tool to solve your own data analysis problems.Understand the basics of the language, including the nature of R objectsLearn how to write R functions and build your own packagesWork with data through visualization, statistical analysis, and other methodsExplore the wealth of packages contributed by the R communityBecome familiar with the lattice graphics package for high-level data visualizationLearn about bioinformatics packages provided by Bioconductor"I am excited about this book. R in a Nutshell is a great introduction to R, as well as a comprehensive reference for using R in data analytics and visualization. Adler provides 'real world' examples, practical advice, and scripts, making it accessible to anyone working with data, not just professional statisticians."

    Packed with practical recipes written and tested with Python 3.3, this unique cookbook is for experienced Python programmers who want to focus on modern tools and idioms.Inside, you’ll find complete recipes for more than a dozen topics, covering the core Python language as well as tasks common to a wide variety of application domains. Each recipe contains code samples you can use in your projects right away, along with a discussion about how and why the solution works.Topics include:Data Structures and AlgorithmsStrings and TextNumbers, Dates, and TimesIterators and GeneratorsFiles and I/OData Encoding and ProcessingFunctionsClasses and ObjectsMetaprogrammingModules and PackagesNetwork and Web ProgrammingConcurrencyUtility Scripting and System AdministrationTesting, Debugging, and ExceptionsC Extensions

    Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    The authors present updated coverage of compilers based on research and techniques that have been developed in the field over the past few years. The book provides a thorough introduction to compiler design and covers topics such as context-free grammars, fine state machines, and syntax-directed translation.

    His aim is to present calculus as the first real encounter with mathematics: it is the place to learn how logical reasoning combined with fundamental concepts can be developed into a rigorous mathematical theory rather than a bunch of tools and techniques learned by rote. Since analysis is a subject students traditionally find difficult to grasp, Spivak provides leisurely explanations, a profusion of examples, a wide range of exercises and plenty of illustrations in an easy-going approach that enlightens difficult concepts and rewards effort. Calculus will continue to be regarded as a modern classic, ideal for honours students and mathematics majors, who seek an alternative to doorstop textbooks on calculus, and the more formidable introductions to real analysis.

    The book covers four major topics in field experimentation:

     Coauthored by the designer of the Scala language, this authoritative book will teach you, one step at a time, the Scala language and the ideas behind it. The book is carefully crafted to help you learn. The first few chapters will give you enough of the basics that you can already start using Scala for simple tasks. The entire book is organized so that each new concept builds on concepts that came before - a series of steps that promises to help you master the Scala language and the important ideas about programming that Scala embodies. A comprehensive tutorial and reference for Scala, this book covers the entire language and important libraries.

    However, Python’s unique strengths, charms, and expressiveness can be hard to grasp, and there are hidden pitfalls that can easily trip you up. This second edition of Effective Python will help you master a truly “Pythonic” approach to programming, harnessing Python’s full power to write exceptionally robust and well-performing code. Using the concise, scenario-driven style pioneered in Scott Meyers’ best-selling Effective C++, Brett Slatkin brings together 90 Python best practices, tips, and shortcuts, and explains them with realistic code examples so that you can embrace Python with confidence. Drawing on years of experience building Python infrastructure at Google, Slatkin uncovers little-known quirks and idioms that powerfully impact code behavior and performance. You’ll understand the best way to accomplish key tasks so you can write code that’s easier to understand, maintain, and improve. In addition to even more advice, this new edition substantially revises all items from the first edition to reflect how best practices have evolved. Key features include 30 new actionable guidelines for all major areas of Python Detailed explanations and examples of statements, expressions, and built-in types Best practices for writing functions that clarify intention, promote reuse, and avoid bugs Better techniques and idioms for using comprehensions and generator functions Coverage of how to accurately express behaviors with classes and interfaces Guidance on how to avoid pitfalls with metaclasses and dynamic attributes More efficient and clear approaches to concurrency and parallelism Solutions for optimizing and hardening to maximize performance and quality Techniques and built-in modules that aid in debugging and testing Tools and best practices for collaborative development   Effective Python will prepare growing programmers to make a big impact using Python.

    

    It is designed as a reference for students in the physical sciences and engineering.

    By using objects early to solve interesting problems and defining objects later in the course, Building Java Programs develops programming knowledge for a broad audience. Introduction to Java Programming, Primitive Data and Definite Loops, Introduction to Parameters and Objects, Conditional Execution, Program Logic and Indefinite Loops, File Processing, Arrays, Defining Classes, Inheritance and Interfaces, ArrayLists, Java Collections Framework, Recursion, Searching and Sorting, Graphical User Interfaces. For all readers interested in introductory programming.

    This book leads the reader from simple graphs through planar graphs, Euler's formula, Platonic graphs, coloring, the genus of a graph, Euler walks, Hamilton walks, more. Includes exercises. 1976 edition.

    With an accessible and lively writing style, it introduces modern techniques to what can often be a formal and intimidating subject. Readers are led from the physics of flat spacetime (special relativity), through the intricacies of differential geometry and Einstein's equations, and on to exciting applications such as black holes, gravitational radiation, and cosmology.