He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

    The authors acknowledge both the structural and sociological issues that contribute to low-performing schools and offer multiple tools and strategies to assess and improve classroom management, increase literacy, establish academic vocabulary, and contribute to a healthier school culture.

    You work hard at so many things-getting ahead, being successful, and even feeling happy. As it turns out, being nice is the one to absolutely guarantee a life you love. Besides, being nice is easy, and the rewards are immeasurable.

    This is not true. In fact, chess is accessible and can be played by anyone with a brain, a pair of eyes, and imagination. The ultimate guide for beginnersIf you've never played the game of chess or are still discovering it, this book is for you. It is a basic and comprehensive guide that will introduce you to the game and teach you everything you need to know, from the setup of a chess board to the delivery of checkmate. It is filled with advice for beginners, basic tactics, strategies, and diagrams to help you visualize every step of your progress. The start of a lifelong King's huntThe objective of this book is not to make you a chess master. That is an accomplishment that takes decades of research, regular practice, and an insane amount of talent. The goal here is for you to become a decent chess player. After reading this book, you will be able to play games with anyone, practice regularly, and sharpen your chess muscles until you reach a decent level of play. The more you'll play, the better you'll get. But it all starts with the basics which you will acquire in this book. So don't hesitate. If you've always wanted to learn to play chess, now is the time. Just scroll up and grab your copy now!

    Sugar Cube founder and baker Kir Jensen left the fine-dining pastry track to sell her handmade treats on the street. Recipes for 50 of Kir's most enticing cupcakes, cookies, tarts, muffins, sips, and candies are made more irresistible (if possible!) by 32 delicious color photographs. Sassy headnotes and illustrations that resemble vintage tattoos liven up this singular boutique baking book.

    It shows how you, as a nurse, can take an active role in social action and health policy?- especially in caring for diverse population groups. Expert authors Mary A. Nies and Melanie McEwen discuss today's issues and trends, and describe the key issues and responsibilities of contemporary community/public health nursing.

    Most of all, it’s about the difficulties of staying on the planet when it’s spinning out of control.While taking a humorous look at health, grandparenthood, computers, and social issues, How to Succeed… answers such pressing questions as: What brand of yogurt guarantees you will live to 110? Can older people really shop online, or is the "submit order" button visible only to users under 30? And how many pixels does it take to win your grandchild’s affection?As we get older, we can whine or complain about our losses--memory, muscles, and mobility--or we can roll with the paunches. This book rolls.

    Wilczek’s groundbreaking work in quantum physics was inspired by his intuition to look for a deeper order of beauty in nature. In fact, every major advance in his career came from this intuition: to assume that the universe embodies beautiful forms, forms whose hallmarks are symmetry—harmony, balance, proportion—and economy. There are other meanings of “beauty,” but this is the deep logic of the universe—and it is no accident that it is also at the heart of what we find aesthetically pleasing and inspiring.Wilczek is hardly alone among great scientists in charting his course using beauty as his compass. As he reveals in A Beautiful Question, this has been the heart of scientific pursuit from Pythagoras, the ancient Greek who was the first to argue that “all things are number,” to Galileo, Newton, Maxwell, Einstein, and into the deep waters of twentiethcentury physics. Though the ancients weren’t right about everything, their ardent belief in the music of the spheres has proved true down to the quantum level. Indeed, Wilczek explores just how intertwined our ideas about beauty and art are with our scientific understanding of the cosmos.Wilczek brings us right to the edge of knowledge today, where the core insights of even the craziest quantum ideas apply principles we all understand. The equations for atoms and light are almost literally the same equations that govern musical instruments and sound; the subatomic particles that are responsible for most of our mass are determined by simple geometric symmetries. The universe itself, suggests Wilczek, seems to want to embody beautiful and elegant forms. Perhaps this force is the pure elegance of numbers, perhaps the work of a higher being, or somewhere between. Either way, we don’t depart from the infinite and infinitesimal after all; we’re profoundly connected to them, and we connect them. When we find that our sense of beauty is realized in the physical world, we are discovering something about the world, but also something about ourselves.Gorgeously illustrated, A Beautiful Question is a mind-shifting book that braids the age-old quest for beauty and the age-old quest for truth into a thrilling synthesis. It is a dazzling and important work from one of our best thinkers, whose humor and infectious sense of wonder animate every page. Yes: The world is a work of art, and its deepest truths are ones we already feel, as if they were somehow written in our souls.

    But behind this archetypal small-town landscape lies a complicated past.Starting with the town's founding as a religious promised land, music journalist and poet Daniel Wolff plots a course through 130 years of entwined social and musical history, touching on John Philip Sousa, Count Basie, Frank Sinatra, and Frankie Lymon on the way to the town Bruce was born to run from. Out of the details of local history-the boardwalk in the Gilded Age; the celebrities who passed through, from Stephen Crane to Martin Luther King; sensational murder trials; the birth of Mob control; and a devastating mid-century "race riot"-emerges a universal story of one small town's fortunes. Told with grace and full of fascinating detail, Daniel Wolff's tour across thirteen decades of the Fourth of July in Asbury Park captures all the allure and heartbreak of the American dream reduced to blight and decay, with gentrification as the one hope for a return to its glory days.

    Full of surprising facts, survey results, step-by-step strategies, inspiring teen quotes, and insightful expert essays, the guide gives readers the tools they need to appreciate their giftedness as an asset and use it to make the most of who they are. The fourth edition has been revised for a new generation of high-end learners and includes information on twice-exceptionality, emotional and social intelligence, creativity, teen brain development, managing life online, testing and standards, homeschooling, International Baccalaureate programs, college alternatives, STEM careers, cyberbullying, and other hot topics.

    After a brief overview of current issues in the field, the book discusses crucial topics in the field, including the characteristics of gifted students, strategies for identification, considerations in planning sound gifted and talented programs, contemporary program models, varieties of acceleration, differentiated curriculum models, problems of underachievement of disadvantaged, twice-exceptional, and female gifted students, and the evaluation of gifted programs. The authors also address affective needs, leadership, and counseling. A chapter on parenting gifted children includes a section on advocating for gifted education and communication with schools. The sixth edition has been thoroughly revised, most notably with the latest research on acceleration, curriculum models, underachievement, culturally and economically disadvantaged students, gender issues, and dual exceptionalities. The content is further supported and enhanced by the inclusion of numerous practical strategies that can be implemented in the classroom, case studies that help teachers identify student needs, summaries of research on effective programs, emphasis on pedagogy and on social-emotional needs, heightened awareness of less visible sub-groups within gifted populations, and an amusing, witty writing style that adds to the appeal of this best-selling book.

    Parents will be inspired to break free of conventions, unleash their child's unique creative genius, cultivate determination, and create an authentic atmosphere of learning.

    Necrophiliac. Kidnapper. Killer.The stories of serial killers often begin with terrible upbringings and sad events of trauma, but not all have such unfortunate beginnings. Some simply develop their evil on their own and become tainted without anyone realizing it.Jeffrey Dahmer was a man described by his own father as the result of a child becoming lost in the maelstrom while nobody paid attention, of a child who was strange and apathetic but who nobody bothered to ask why......The results were catastrophic.Seventeen men lost their lives and were defiled even after death because of the desires of a neglected young boy who just wanted to fulfill his needs. The following is the tale of said child, the same young man who grew up to become the infamous Milwaukee Cannibal, one of the worst serial killers in humanity's history.Jeffrey Dahmer: The Gruesome True Story of a Hungry Cannibalistic Rapist and Necrophiliac Serial Killer (Vol 3) is a book that recounts the tale of the Milwaukee Cannibal, a man capable of committing the most truly degrading acts on his victims before and even after death; a man who to his last days - and long after - still haunts the city of Milwaukee with the memories of his horrific murders.Be warned, reader, you aren't just about to read about Jeffrey Dahmer and his acts.You are about to walk into his very mind.

    Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    Sin's first book of poetry.