Essentially, you are estimating a probability, but then updating that estimate based on other things that you know. This book is designed to give you an intuitive understanding of how to use Bayes Theorem. It starts with the definition of what Bayes Theorem is, but the focus of the book is on providing examples that you can follow and duplicate. Most of the examples are calculated in Excel, which is useful for updating probability if you have dozens or hundreds of data points to roll in.

    She shares secret stories about working as a high class escort and talks about her encounters with celebrities, athletes and politicians. She manages to create a captivating story that is both tragic and empowering. Not shying away from the truth and it's consequences, Channon leads the reader through a series of shattering, first-hand revelations about her suicide attempts, shady celebs, past relationships, her abortions, crime and murders - creating a scene that's hard to look away from. Go behind the scenes of the Howard Stern show and find out what it's like working for Playboy TV; and among it all learn how a person can find love, even in hopeless places. From a marriage ending in divorce, through a series of trials finally leading towards finding a true purpose in life, this is a not a journey for the faint of heart. But from the first page of this true story, you'll feel like you're walking in Channon's shoes, and you won't be able to put it down until you've learned to run in stiletto heels.

    Defence, internal security and terrorism are important yet closely guarded issues. Even as outrage over safety of women and rising terror take centrestage, there continues to be limited access to information on the subjects of national defence and security - especially in a language that a layman can understand. Raghu Raman, an expert on security and terrorism, presents issues of defence, strategy and national security in an engaging narrative, with historical and contemporary examples. He recalibrates the great ‘India rising’ story with its real and present dangers and the role of a regular citizen in this everyman’s war.

    The book melds Scales’ unique style of writing that includes contemporary military history, current events and his philosophy of ground warfare to create a very personal and expansive view of where Americn defense policies are heading in the future.The book is a collection. Each chapter addresses distinct topics that embrace tactical ground warfare, future gazing, the draft and the role of women in the infantry. His uniting thesis is that throughout its history the United States has favored a technological approach to fighting its wars and has neglected its ground forces. America’s enemies have learned though the experience of battle how to defeat American technology. The consequences of a learning and adaptive enemy has been a continuous string of battlefield defeats.Scales argues that only a resurgent land force of Army and Marine small units will restore America’s fighting competence.

    In 1979, the organisation's growing importance was felt during the Soviet war in Afghanistan , as it worked hand in glove with the CIA to support the mujahideen resistance, but its activities received little coverage in news media.Since that time, the ISI has projected its influence across the region in 1988 its involvement in Indian Kashmir came under increasing scrutiny, and by 1995 its mentoring of what became the Afghan Taliban was well attested. But it was the organisation's alleged links with Al Qaeda and the discovery of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, at the heart of Pakistan's military zone, that really threw it under the spotlight. These controversies and many more have dogged the ISI, including its role in Pakistan's testing of a nuclear weapon in 1998 and its links with A.Q. Khan.Offering fresh insights into the ISI as a domestic and international actor based on intimate knowledge of its inner workings and key individuals, this startlingly original book uncovers the hitherto shady world of Pakistan's secret service.

    Today, America’s wars are everywhere and forever: our enemies change constantly and rarely wear uniforms, and virtually anything can become a weapon. As war expands, so does the role of the US military. Today, military personnel don’t just “kill people and break stuff.” Instead, they analyze computer code, train Afghan judges, build Ebola isolation wards, eavesdrop on electronic communications, develop soap operas, and patrol for pirates. You name it, the military does it. Rosa Brooks traces this seismic shift in how America wages war from an unconventional perspective—that of a former top Pentagon official who is the daughter of two anti-war protesters and a human rights activist married to an Army Green Beret. Her experiences lead her to an urgent warning: When the boundaries around war disappear, we risk destroying America’s founding values and the laws and institutions we’ve built—and undermining the international rules and organizations that keep our world from sliding towards chaos. If Russia and China have recently grown bolder in their foreign adventures, it’s no accident; US precedents have paved the way for the increasingly unconstrained use of military power by states around the globe. Meanwhile, we continue to pile new tasks onto the military, making it increasingly ill-prepared for the threats America will face in the years to come. By turns a memoir, a work of journalism, a scholarly exploration into history, anthropology and law, and a rallying cry, How Everything Became War and the Military Became Everything transforms the familiar into the alien, showing us that the culture we inhabit is reshaping us in ways we may suspect, but don’t really understand. It’s the kind of book that will leave you moved, astonished, and profoundly disturbed, for the world around us is quietly changing beyond recognition—and time is running out to make things right.

    But do you know enough about these new consumers to convert them into customers?Do you know that:• There will be nearly one billion middle-class consumers in China and India within the next ten years?• More than 135 million Chinese and Indians will graduate from college in this timeframe, compared to just 30 million in the United States?• By 2020, 68 percent of Chinese households and 57 percent of Indian households will be in the middle and upper classes?• The number of billionaires in China has grown from 1 to 115 in the past decade alone?In The $10 Trillion Prize, bestselling author Michael J. Silverstein and his The Boston Consulting Group colleagues in China and India provide the first comprehensive profile of the emerging middle class, primed to transform the global marketplace. Already the world’s biggest buyers of cars, mobile phones, appliances, and more, these consumers are eager for more products and services. In fact, it’s estimated that by 2020, consumers in China and India will generate more than $10 trillion of total annual revenue for companies selling to them.This book explains who these consumers are—what they buy and why, how they think and shop, and how their needs and tastes are changing. It takes you into their lives so you can better understand what they want and what they’re looking for.Only by fully comprehending the forces driving this new generation of consumers will your company be able to capitalize on the opportunities their buying power represents. Insightful and backed by rigorous research, this book takes you inside the hearts and minds of today’s emerging Chinese and Indian consumers—both urban and rural, and across all income levels—positioning your company to win as the next wave of global affluence reaches the marketplace.

    Based on the hugely popular The Player columns in FourFourTwo magazine, the book gives a warts-and-all insight into the daily life of professional footballers. Month by month, it chronicles the oscillating rhythms of the season, from the trudge of pre-season to the "squeaky-bum time" of promotion and relegation. The player himself has played at all levels of English football, from Premier League to a season of non-League, and represented England (alongside David Backham) at U21 level.

    W. E. Fairbairn, taught the famed British Commandos from this classic, long-out-of-print manual on unarmed combat. Known for his "get tough" attitude, Fairbairn designed these practical methods after years of training troops and watching ruffians, thugs, bandits and bullies. Now you can profit from his experience.

    In other words, we're facing not a radicalization of Islam, but the Islamization of radicalism.Indeed, Roy argues, young European Muslims drawn to IS are attracted to the organization's violent means rather than utopian dreams of a caliphate. He places IS in the context of other radical millenialist groups such as China's Red Guards, Cambodia's Khmer Rouge, and Uganda's Lord's Resistance Army. In doing so, he shows that violence, not religious fundamentalism, is the central thread connecting young people who are drawn to radical groups.Jihad and Death is a concise dissection of the highly sophisticated narrative mobilized by IS: the myth of the caliphate recast into a modern story of heroism and nihilism.

    An inside-the-dugout account, based on interviews with the key players among the Angels, Astros, Mets and Red Sox, of a remarkable season and arguably the most spectacular comeback in the history of the sport.

    Her first book, Fresh Eggs Daily, was all about healthy, natural care for chickens. Now comes Duck Eggs Daily, an equally valuable guide to raising ducks for eggs and companionship. This is also a book for chicken keepers who want to add ducks to their flock. While ducks can live happily with chickens, ducks are different in many important ways. Steele provides an information-packed, beautifully photographed how-to for raising – and living with – happy, healthy ducks. She examines every aspect of her ducks’ lives, including duck houses and pools, health care, duck behavior and blending ducks into a chicken flock. She provides a breed chart and a selection of favorite recipes using duck eggs.

    Nor do you need to burn incense or rub crystals.This book shows you easy ways to meditate whenever and wherever you want—you’ll learn how to do it without anyone knowing—and still hang out with your military pals, cop buddies, and fellow martial arts students. You can still own a pit bull, drive a Harley, and share lies with your drinking buddies. The same is true whether you’re a firefighter, doorman, bodyguard, medic, or security officer. The simple fact is, meditation as taught within these pages, will make you a better warrior.

    While the US was trying to quell extremists, a highly secretive and compartmentalized wing of I.S.I., known as "Directorate S," was covertly training, arming, and seeking to legitimize the Taliban, in order to enlarge Pakistan's sphere of influence. After 9/11, when fifty-nine countries, led by the U. S., deployed troops or provided aid to Afghanistan in an effort to flush out the Taliban and Al Qaeda, the U.S. was set on an invisible slow-motion collision course with Pakistan.Today we know that the war in Afghanistan would falter badly because of military hubris at the highest levels of the Pentagon, the drain on resources and provocation in the Muslim world caused by the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, and corruption. But more than anything, as Coll makes painfully clear, the war in Afghanistan was doomed because of the failure of the United States to apprehend the motivations and intentions of I.S.I.'s "Directorate S". This was a swirling and shadowy struggle of historic proportions, which endured over a decade and across both the Bush and Obama administrations, involving multiple secret intelligence agencies, a litany of incongruous strategies and tactics, and dozens of players, including some of the most prominent military and political figures. A sprawling American tragedy, the war was an open clash of arms but also a covert melee of ideas, secrets, and subterranean violence. Coll excavates this grand battle, which took place away from the gaze of the American public. With unsurpassed expertise, original research, and attention to detail, he brings to life a narrative at once vast and intricate, local and global, propulsive and painstaking. This is the definitive explanation of how America came to be so badly ensnared in an elaborate, factional, and seemingly interminable conflict in South Asia. Nothing less than a forensic examination of the personal and political forces that shape world history, Directorate S is a complete masterpiece of both investigative and narrative journalism.

    Cold Chisel wrote a song about her. Rupert Murdoch was so impressed by her talents, he asked her to be the editor-in-chief of both the Daily and Sunday Telegraphs – and in doing so, become the first woman ever to edit a major Australian metropolitan newspaper.In her extraordinary career, spanning over fifty years, Ita Buttrose has been involved in every aspect of the media, from newspapers and magazines to television and radio and now, electronic publishing. From her creation of a new type of women's magazine in Cleo and then ITA, to her appointment as the youngest-ever editor of The Australian Women's Weekly (a distinction she still holds today), a passionate love of journalism has driven her every step of the way.Refreshingly candid about the challenges she has faced as a professional woman, not only in her career but also in her love life and as a mother, A Passionate Life describes those ground-breaking years with Ita's trademark clarity, precision and wit.In this substantially revised and expanded edition, Ita also shares her views on current affairs and the state of the media today, including an insider's perspective on the Murdoch empire. We hear about her significant recent contribution to various health awareness campaigns, particularly Alzheimer's Australia; her coverage of the 2011 royal wedding; her new incarnation as a rap star; the making of Paper Giants and her recent venture into the new territory of electronic publishingAn appealing and lively autobiography by one of Australia's most distinguished journalists. A Passionate Life will strike a chord with working women everywhere.