However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice-freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You'll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you've mastered these techniques, you'll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes - Learning the Bayesian "state of mind" and its practical implications - Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference - Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses - Building and debugging models with PyMC - Testing your model's "goodness of fit" - Opening the "black box" of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works - Leveraging the power of the "Law of Large Numbers" - Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning - Using loss functions to measure an estimate's weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes - Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size - Overcoming the "exploration versus exploitation" dilemma: deciding when "pretty good" is good enough - Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing - Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.

    The Windows Command Line Beginner's Guide gives users new to the Windows command line an overview of the Command Prompt, from simple tasks to network configuration.In the Guide, you'll learn how to:-Manage the Command Prompt.-Copy & paste from the Windows Command Prompt.-Create batch files.-Remotely manage Windows machines from the command line.-Manage disks, partitions, and volumes.-Set an IP address and configure other network settings.-Set and manage NTFS and file sharing permissions.-Customize and modify the Command Prompt.-Create and manage file shares.-Copy, move, and delete files and directories from the command line.-Manage PDF files and office documents from the command line.-And many other topics.

    Hawkins M.D., Ph.D., on the nature of consciousness, spirit, and ego are known worldwide by students seeking to realize spiritual Truth.        As a mystic, Dr. Hawkins has infused the truths found in the precepts of Western religion with the core of Eastern philosophy, bridging the familiar, physical world to the nonlinear, spiritual domain.        This collection of passages, carefully selected from Dr. Hawkins’s extensive writings, offers readers a new contemplation for each day. Any one of these passages, fully understood, can elevate one’s level of consciousness.

    These singularities are places where space-time begins or ends, and the presently known laws of physics break down. They will occur inside black holes, and in the past are what might be construed as the beginning of the universe. To show how these predictions arise, the authors discuss the General Theory of Relativity in the large. Starting with a precise formulation of the theory and an account of the necessary background of differential geometry, the significance of space-time curvature is discussed and the global properties of a number of exact solutions of Einstein's field equations are examined. The theory of the causal structure of a general space-time is developed, and is used to study black holes and to prove a number of theorems establishing the inevitability of singualarities under certain conditions. A discussion of the Cauchy problem for General Relativity is also included in this 1973 book.

    It touches on its evolutionary development, its algorithmic nature and its scientific history by bridging ideas across Neuroscience, Computer Science, Biotechnology, Evolutionary History, Cognitive Science, Political Philosophy, and Artificial Intelligence.Never before had there been nearly as many scientists, resources or productive research focused on these topics, and humanity has achieved some understanding and some clarification. With the speed of progress it is timely to communicate an overreaching perspective, this book puts an emphasis on conveying the essential questions and what we know about their answers in a simple, clear and exciting way.Humans, along with the first RNA molecules, the first life forms, the first brains, the first conscious animals, the first societies and the first artificial agents constitute an amazing and crucial development in a path of increasingly complex computational intelligence. And yet, we occupy a minuscule time period in the history of Earth, a history that has been written by Genes, by Cultures and by Consciousnesses. If we abandon our anthropomorphic bias it becomes obvious that Humans are not so special after all. We are an important but short and transitory step among many others in a bigger story. The story of our computational minds, which is ours but not only ours. What is the relationship between computation, cognition and everything else? What is life and how did it originate? What is the role of culture in human minds? What do we know about the algorithmic nature of the mind, can we engineer it? What is the computational explanation of consciousness? What are some possible future steps in the evolution of minds? The underlying thread is the computational nature of the Mind which results from the mixture of Genes, Cultures and Consciousness. While these three interact in complex ways, they are ultimately computational systems on their own which appeared at different stages of history and which follow their own selective processes operating at different time scales. As technology progresses, the distinction between the three components materializes and will be a key determinant of the future.Among the many topics covered are the origin of life, the concept of computation and its relation to Turing Machines, cultural evolution and the notion of a Selfish Meme, free will and determinism, moral relativity, the hard problem of consciousness, the different theories of concepts from the perspective of cognitive science, the current status of AI and Machine Learning including the symbolic vs sub-symbolic dichotomy, the contrast between logical reasoning and neural networks, and the recent history of Deep Learning, Geoffrey Hinton, DeepMind and its algorithm AlphaGo. It also develops on the history of science and looks into the possible future building on the work of authors like Daniel Dennett, Yuval Harari, Richard Dawkins, Francis Crick, George Church, David Chalmers, Susan Carey, Stanislas Dehaene, Robert Boyd, Joseph Henrich, Daniel Kahneman, Moran Cerf, Josh Tenenbaum, David Deutsch, Steven Pinker, Ray Kurzweil, John von Neumann, Herbert Simon and many more. Andres Campero is a researcher and PhD student at the Brain and Cognitive Sciences Department and at the Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

    If your job requires you to manage and analyze all kinds of data, turn to Head First Data Analysis, where you'll quickly learn how to collect and organize data, sort the distractions from the truth, find meaningful patterns, draw conclusions, predict the future, and present your findings to others. Whether you're a product developer researching the market viability of a new product or service, a marketing manager gauging or predicting the effectiveness of a campaign, a salesperson who needs data to support product presentations, or a lone entrepreneur responsible for all of these data-intensive functions and more, the unique approach in Head First Data Analysis is by far the most efficient way to learn what you need to know to convert raw data into a vital business tool. You'll learn how to:Determine which data sources to use for collecting information Assess data quality and distinguish signal from noise Build basic data models to illuminate patterns, and assimilate new information into the models Cope with ambiguous information Design experiments to test hypotheses and draw conclusions Use segmentation to organize your data within discrete market groups Visualize data distributions to reveal new relationships and persuade others Predict the future with sampling and probability models Clean your data to make it useful Communicate the results of your analysis to your audience Using the latest research in cognitive science and learning theory to craft a multi-sensory learning experience, Head First Data Analysis uses a visually rich format designed for the way your brain works, not a text-heavy approach that puts you to sleep.

    Working with imaginative and often hilarious computer simulations, he analyzes the roots of catastrophe, showing city planners in the very act of creating gridlock and disaster, or public health authorities setting the scene for starvation. The Logic of Failure is a compass for intelligent planning and decision-making that can sharpen the skills of managers, policymakers and everyone involved in the daily challenge of getting from point A to point B.

    Along the way we’ll learn how selection bias can explain why your boss doesn’t know he sucks (even when everyone else does); how to use Bayes’ Theorem to decide if your partner is cheating on you; and why Mark Zuckerberg should never be used as an example for anything. See the world in a whole new light, and make better decisions and judgements without ever going near a t-test. Think. Think Statistically.

    The emphasis is, instead, on the myriad ways in which the universe presents itself to us--and how, as observers and participants in its processes, we respond to it. "Life, like a dome of many-colored glass," wrote Percy Bysshe Shelley, "stains the white radiance of eternity." The author seeks here to explore the variety that gives life its beauty.Taken from Dyson's recent public lectures--delivered to audiences with no specialized knowledge in hard sciences--the book begins with a consideration of the practical and political questions surrounding biotechnology. As he seeks how best to explain the place of life in the universe, Dyson then moves from the ethical to the purely scientific. The book concludes with an attempt to understand the implications of biology for philosophy and religion.The pieces in this collection touch on numerous disciplines, from astronomy and ecology to neurology and theology, speaking to the lay reader as well as to the scientist. As always, Dyson's view of human nature and behavior is balanced, and his predictions of a world to come serve primarily as a means for thinking about the world as it is today.

    Maybe you’re stuck in a boring industry. Maybe your boss likes to slam doors. The truth is that many smart, motivated people would quit in a heartbeat if they weren’t afraid of the financial risks…and, well, the unknown. Whether you want to upgrade your 9-5 or start your own company, Robbie Abed presents a foolproof strategy to find a better job—without stressing, worrying your family, or losing money. You’re talented. Talent is in high demand. You just have to know where to look. In this accessible handbook, full of anecdotes, stories, and tips, you’ll learn how to reconnect with your interests, sharpen your talents, build a network, experiment with ideas for next steps, elicit job offers, and negotiate for higher salaries than your last. Oh, and how to quit your job with aplomb (goodbye email template included). You’ve been miserable for long enough. Look at it this way: hating your job might be the best thing that could’ve happened to you. It’s a kick in the pants to learn survival skills for the coming jobpocalypse. As our machines get smarter, robots, cognitive machines, and the simple software on your computer will render old jobs obsolete. In other words, there is no such thing as job security. The goal of this book is twofold: to help you get out before the music stops, and to teach you skills to find a job you love. Not just once, but anytime, anywhere, in any economic climate, with almost any salary goal. You didn’t hear that wrong.

    Without machine learning, fraud detection, web search results, real-time ads on web pages, credit scoring, automation, and email spam filtering wouldn't be possible, and this is only showcasing just a few of its capabilities. Written by two data science experts, Machine Learning For Dummies offers a much-needed entry point for anyone looking to use machine learning to accomplish practical tasks.Covering the entry-level topics needed to get you familiar with the basic concepts of machine learning, this guide quickly helps you make sense of the programming languages and tools you need to turn machine learning-based tasks into a reality. Whether you're maddened by the math behind machine learning, apprehensive about AI, perplexed by preprocessing data--or anything in between--this guide makes it easier to understand and implement machine learning seamlessly.Grasp how day-to-day activities are powered by machine learning Learn to 'speak' certain languages, such as Python and R, to teach machines to perform pattern-oriented tasks and data analysis Learn to code in R using R Studio Find out how to code in Python using Anaconda Dive into this complete beginner's guide so you are armed with all you need to know about machine learning!

    In this lively book of essays, Stephen Wolfram takes the reader along on some of his most surprising and engaging intellectual adventures in science, technology, artificial intelligence and language design.

    Machine learning provides these, developing methods that can automatically detect patterns in data and then use the uncovered patterns to predict future data. This textbook offers a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of machine learning, based on a unified, probabilistic approach.The coverage combines breadth and depth, offering necessary background material on such topics as probability, optimization, and linear algebra as well as discussion of recent developments in the field, including conditional random fields, L1 regularization, and deep learning. The book is written in an informal, accessible style, complete with pseudo-code for the most important algorithms. All topics are copiously illustrated with color images and worked examples drawn from such application domains as biology, text processing, computer vision, and robotics. Rather than providing a cookbook of different heuristic methods, the book stresses a principled model-based approach, often using the language of graphical models to specify models in a concise and intuitive way. Almost all the models described have been implemented in a MATLAB software package—PMTK (probabilistic modeling toolkit)—that is freely available online. The book is suitable for upper-level undergraduates with an introductory-level college math background and beginning graduate students.

    It follows that the belief that there is a significant chance that we will one day become posthumans who run ancestor-simulations is false, unless we are currently living in a simulation. A number of other consequences of this result are also discussed.

    It is also a practical, modern introduction to scientific computing in Python, tailored for data-intensive applications. This is a book about the parts of the Python language and libraries you'll need to effectively solve a broad set of data analysis problems. This book is not an exposition on analytical methods using Python as the implementation language.Written by Wes McKinney, the main author of the pandas library, this hands-on book is packed with practical cases studies. It's ideal for analysts new to Python and for Python programmers new to scientific computing.Use the IPython interactive shell as your primary development environmentLearn basic and advanced NumPy (Numerical Python) featuresGet started with data analysis tools in the pandas libraryUse high-performance tools to load, clean, transform, merge, and reshape dataCreate scatter plots and static or interactive visualizations with matplotlibApply the pandas groupby facility to slice, dice, and summarize datasetsMeasure data by points in time, whether it's specific instances, fixed periods, or intervalsLearn how to solve problems in web analytics, social sciences, finance, and economics, through detailed examples