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    Bayesian statistics is taught in most first-year statistics classes across the nation, but there is one major problem that many students (and others who are interested in the theorem) face. The theorem is not intuitive for most people, and understanding how it works can be a challenge, especially because it is often taught without visual aids. In this guide, we unpack the various components of the theorem and provide a basic overview of how it works - and with illustrations to help. Three scenarios - the flu, breathalyzer tests, and peacekeeping - are used throughout the booklet to teach how problems involving Bayes Theorem can be approached and solved. Over 60 hand-drawn visuals are included throughout to help you work through each problem as you learn by example. The illustrations are simple, hand-drawn, and in black and white. For those interested, we have also included sections typically not found in other beginner guides to Bayes Rule. These include: A short tutorial on how to understand problem scenarios and find P(B), P(A), and P(B|A). For many people, knowing how to approach scenarios and break them apart can be daunting. In this booklet, we provide a quick step-by-step reference on how to confidently understand scenarios.A few examples of how to think like a Bayesian in everyday life. Bayes Rule might seem somewhat abstract, but it can be applied to many areas of life and help you make better decisions. It is a great tool that can help you with critical thinking, problem-solving, and dealing with the gray areas of life. A concise history of Bayes Rule. Bayes Theorem has a fascinating 200+ year history, and we have summed it up for you in this booklet. From its discovery in the 1700’s to its being used to break the German’s Enigma Code during World War 2, its tale is quite phenomenal.Fascinating real-life stories on how Bayes formula is used in everyday life.From search and rescue to spam filtering and driverless cars, Bayes is used in many areas of modern day life. We have summed up 3 examples for you and provided an example of how Bayes could be used.An expanded definitions, notations, and proof section.We have included an expanded definitions and notations sections at the end of the booklet. In this section we define core terms more concretely, and also cover additional terms you might be confused about. A recommended readings section.From The Theory That Would Not Die to a few other books, there are a number of recommendations we have for further reading. Take a look! If you are a visual learner and like to learn by example, this intuitive booklet might be a good fit for you. Bayesian statistics is an incredibly fascinating topic and likely touches your life every single day. It is a very important tool that is used in data analysis throughout a wide-range of industries - so take an easy dive into the theorem for yourself with a visual approach!If you are looking for a short beginners guide packed with visual examples, this booklet is for you.

    He asks how today's scientists can claim to predict future climate events when even three-day forecasts prove a serious challenge. Can we predict and control epidemics? Can we accurately foresee our financial future? Or will we only find out about tomorrow when tomorrow arrives?

    Polya, How to Solve It will show anyone in any field how to think straight. In lucid and appealing prose, Polya reveals how the mathematical method of demonstrating a proof or finding an unknown can be of help in attacking any problem that can be reasoned out--from building a bridge to winning a game of anagrams. Generations of readers have relished Polya's deft--indeed, brilliant--instructions on stripping away irrelevancies and going straight to the heart of the problem.

    It covers topics ranging from personal responsibility and career development to architectural techniques for keeping your code flexible and easy to adapt and reuse. Read this book, and you'll learn how toFight software rot; Avoid the trap of duplicating knowledge; Write flexible, dynamic, and adaptable code; Avoid programming by coincidence; Bullet-proof your code with contracts, assertions, and exceptions; Capture real requirements; Test ruthlessly and effectively; Delight your users; Build teams of pragmatic programmers; and Make your developments more precise with automation. Written as a series of self-contained sections and filled with entertaining anecdotes, thoughtful examples, and interesting analogies, The Pragmatic Programmer illustrates the best practices and major pitfalls of many different aspects of software development. Whether you're a new coder, an experienced programmer, or a manager responsible for software projects, use these lessons daily, and you'll quickly see improvements in personal productivity, accuracy, and job satisfaction. You'll learn skills and develop habits and attitudes that form the foundation for long-term success in your career. You'll become a Pragmatic Programmer.

    The gear you select and how you use it can mean big results—or bigger disappointment.FASTER takes a scientific look at triathlon to see what truly makes you faster—and busts the myths and doublespeak that waste your money and race times. In this fascinating exploration of the forces at play in the swim-bike-run sport, astronautical engineer and triathlete Jim Gourley shows where to find free speed, speed on a budget, and the gear upgrades that are worth it.FASTER offers specific, science-based guidance on the fastest techniques and the most effective gear, answering questions like: •    Which wetsuit is best for me? •    What’s the best way to draft a swimmer? •    Should I buy a lighter bike? •    Deep dish or disc wheels? •    Are lighter shoes faster? •    Who’s right about running technique? Gourley reviews published studies in peer-reviewed journals to show what scientists have learned about swim drafting, pacing the bike leg, race strategy for short and long-course racing, and the fastest ways to handle transitions.FASTER will change how you think about your body, your gear, and the world around you. With science on your side, you'll make the smart calls that will make you a better, faster triathlete.

    But what if, nonetheless, Einstein got it wrong?Since the 1930s, physicists have noticed an alarming discrepancy between the universe as we see it and the universe that Einstein's theory of relativity predicts. There just doesn't seem to be enough stuff out there for everything to hang together. Galaxies spin so fast that, based on the amount of visible matter in them, they ought to be flung to pieces, the same way a spinning yo-yo can break its string. Cosmologists tried to solve the problem by positing dark matter—a mysterious, invisible substance that surrounds galaxies, holding the visible matter in place—and particle physicists, attempting to identify the nature of the stuff, have undertaken a slew of experiments to detect it. So far, none have.Now, John W. Moffat, a physicist at the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics in Waterloo, Canada, offers a different solution to the problem. The cap­stone to a storybook career—one that began with a correspondence with Einstein and a conversation with Niels Bohr—Moffat's modified gravity theory, or MOG, can model the movements of the universe without recourse to dark matter, and his work chal­lenging the constancy of the speed of light raises a stark challenge to the usual models of the first half-million years of the universe's existence.This bold new work, presenting the entirety of Moffat's hypothesis to a general readership for the first time, promises to overturn everything we thought we knew about the origins and evolution of the universe.

    Based on her work at the Santa Fe Institute and drawing on its interdisciplinary strategies, Mitchell brings clarity to the workings of complexity across a broad range of biological, technological, and social phenomena, seeking out the general principles or laws that apply to all of them. Richly illustrated, Complexity: A Guided Tour--winner of the 2010 Phi Beta Kappa Book Award in Science--offers a wide-ranging overview of the ideas underlying complex systems science, the current research at the forefront of this field, and the prospects for its contribution to solving some of the most important scientific questions of our time.

    Structurally sound aircraft plummet to the earth, supertankers run aground in calm weather, and the machines of medical science maim unsuspecting patients - - all because designers sometimes fail to reflect the characteristics of the user in their designs. Designers and the public alike are realizing that many human' errors are more aptly named designed-induced' errors. Most consumers experience the frustration of using many new products; amusing stories about programming a VCR, operating a personal computer, or finding the headlight switch on a rental car are heard in everyday conversation. The problems consumers experience with modern everyday things are shared by the users of large-scale technologies where the consequences of design can go well beyond simple matters of inconvenience or amusement. In the new second edition of Set Phasers on Stun' and Other True Tales of Design, Technology, and Human Error, noted designer and author Steven Casey has assembled 20 factual and arresting stories about people and their attempts to use modern technological creations. Although the operator or pilot usually gets blamed for a big disaster, the root cause can frequently be found in subtle characteristics of the device's human interface.' Technological disasters can often be traced directly to the interplay between people and the design of a device - - be it an airliner cockpit, the controls in an industrial plant, a spacecraft's instruments, a medical system, a nuclear reactor, or even a commercial dishwashing machine.

    Brian Arthur puts forth the first complete theory of the origins and evolution of technology, in a major work that achieves for the invention of new technologies what Darwin’s theory achieved for the emergence of new species. Brian Arthur is a pioneer of complexity theory and the discoverer of the highly influential "theory of increasing returns," which took Silicon Valley by storm, famously explaining why some high-tech companies achieve breakaway success. Now, in this long-awaited and ground-breaking book, he solves the great outstanding puzzle of technology—where do transformative new technologies come from?—putting forth the first full theory of how new technologies emerge and offering a definitive answer to the mystery of why some cultures—Silicon Valley, Cambridge, England in the 1920s—are so extraordinarily inventive. He has discovered that rather than springing from insight moments of individual genius, new technologies arise in a process akin to evolution. Technology evolves by creating itself out of itself, much as a coral reef builds itself from activities of small organisms. Drawing on a wealth of examples, from the most ancient to cutting-edge inventions of today, Arthur takes readers on a delightful intellectual journey, bringing to life the wonders of this process of technological evolution. The Nature of Technology is the work of one of our greatest thinkers at the top of his game, composing a classic for our times that is sure to generate wide acclaim.

    It explains how it was a premeditated, orchestrated deception, using science to impose a political agenda. It fooled a majority including most scientists. They assumed that other scientists would not produce science for a political agenda. German Physicist and meteorologist Klaus-Eckart Puls finally decided to look for himself. Here is what he discovered. Ten years ago I simply parroted what the IPCC told us. One day I started checking the facts and data—first I started with a sense of doubt but then I became outraged when I discovered that much of what the IPCC and the media were telling us was sheer nonsense and was not even supported by any scientific facts and measurements. To this day I still feel shame that as a scientist I made presentations of their science without first checking it.…scientifically it is sheer absurdity to think we can get a nice climate by turning a CO2 adjustment knob. This book uses the same approach used in investigative journalism. It examines the Who, What, Where, When, Why, and How.

    Combining psychological support with a project management approach that breaks tasks into small, manageable chunks, experienced dissertation coach Alison Miller shows you how to overcome negativity and succeed in completing your dissertation beyond your own expectations.

    A new foreword by Kip Thorne, the current Richard Feynman Professor of Theoretical Physics at Caltech, discusses the relevance of the new edition to today's readers. This boxed set also includes Feynman's new Tips on Physics—the four previously unpublished lectures that Feynman gave to students preparing for exams at the end of his course. Thus, this 4-volume set is the complete and definitive edition of The Feynman Lectures on Physics. Packaged in a specially designed slipcase, this 4-volume set provides the ultimate legacy of Feynman's extraordinary contribution to students, teachers, researches, and lay readers around the world.

    I also love the sense of humor. It's very good at disarming the fear. And it's gorgeous. I'll be recommending this book highly." --Tom Igoe, author of Physical Computing and Making Things TalkWant to learn the fundamentals of electronics in a fun, hands-on way? With Make: Electronics, you'll start working on real projects as soon as you crack open the book. Explore all of the key components and essential principles through a series of fascinating experiments. You'll build the circuits first, then learn the theory behind them!Build working devices, from simple to complex You'll start with the basics and then move on to more complicated projects. Go from switching circuits to integrated circuits, and from simple alarms to programmable microcontrollers. Step-by-step instructions and more than 500 full-color photographs and illustrations will help you use -- and understand -- electronics concepts and techniques.Discover by breaking things: experiment with components and learn from failureSet up a tricked-out project space: make a work area at home, equipped with the tools and parts you'll needLearn about key electronic components and their functions within a circuitCreate an intrusion alarm, holiday lights, wearable electronic jewelry, audio processors, a reflex tester, and a combination lockBuild an autonomous robot cart that can sense its environment and avoid obstaclesGet clear, easy-to-understand explanations of what you're doing and why

    In recent years, while continuing to learn more about strengths, Gallup scientists have also been ex....