He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

    She remains the head of state of the United Kingdom, and a group of 16 nations including Canada, Australia, and New Zealand call her queen, and she is the head of the British Commonwealth which includes another 37 countries, including India and South Africa. Throughout her life, she has enjoyed much happiness including a long and happy marriage to Prince Philip, four children, and Silver, Golden, and Diamond Jubilees. Her reign has also been marked by much sadness, including the failed marriages of three of her children, the deaths of close family members and friends, and the markedly difficult death of Princess Diana, which took a toll on both the Royal Family and the nation.Now Life, in a new special edition, takes a nuanced and thoughtful look at the reign of Elizabeth at 90 and what her over-63 years on the throne have meant for her subjects and the world at large, including her early life, the years of World War Ii, her marriage and family, life ruling Great Britain, Windsor family values and much more.With dozens of stunning photos, stories, and analysis, Queen Elizabeth at 90 is a keepsake of both a life well-lived and an historical time on the throne, as well as a captivating collection for any royal watcher.

    This collection provides a complete picture of the man, his influence, and the impact of his life and death on his fans. Color photos. 72 b&w photos.

    Human beings have long been both fascinated and appalled by randomness. On the one hand, we love the thrill of a surprise party, the unpredictability of a budding romance, or the freedom of not knowing what tomorrow will bring. We are inexplicably delighted by strange coincidences and striking similarities. But we also hate uncertainty's dark side. From cancer to SARS, diseases strike with no apparent pattern. Terrorists attack, airplanes crash, bridges collapse, and we never know if we'll be that one in a million statistic. We are all constantly faced with situations and choices that involve randomness and uncertainty. A basic understanding of the rules of probability theory, applied to real-life circumstances, can help us to make sense of these situations, to avoid unnecessary fear, to seize the opportunities that randomness presents to us, and to actually enjoy the uncertainties we face. The reality is that when it comes to randomness, you can run, but you can't hide. So many aspects of our lives are governed by events that are simply not in our control. In this entertaining yet sophisticated look at the world of probabilities, author Jeffrey Rosenthal--an improbably talented math professor--explains the mechanics of randomness and teaches us how to develop an informed perspective on probability.

    They encourage each other, proactively solve problems, and constantly look for ways to go the extra mile. In short, imagine a workplace culture where employees were absolutely obsessed with customer service. The Service Culture Handbook is a step-by-step guide to help you develop a customer-focused culture in your company, department, or location. Whether you’re just beginning your journey, or have been working on culture for years, this handbook will prepare you to take the next step. You’ll receive actionable advice, straightforward exercises, and proven tools you can utilize immediately. Learn the one thing that forms the foundation of every great culture. Discover what customer-focused companies do differently to engage their employees. And explore ways to strategically align every facet of your organization with outstanding service. Creating and sustaining a customer-focused culture is a never-ending journey that takes hard work, dedication, and commitment. The Service Culture Handbook is an indispensable resource to help you and your employees stay headed in the right direction. Praise for The Service Culture Handbook: "The Service Culture Handbook provides the poignant inspiration and practical instruction for the difficult work of transforming a service culture into one that is distinctive, successful, and permanent." —Chip R. Bell, author of Kaleidoscope: Delivering Innovative Service That Sparkles "Though research continues to uncover the astonishing impact of customer-focused cultures on customer loyalty and business results, few organizations know how to get there. Jeff Toister unlocks that mystery through this practical (and fun to read!) guide to developing a culture that really works." —Brad Cleveland, founding partner and former CEO, International Customer Management Institute

    There are deep connections between stars and atoms, between the cosmos and the microworld. Just six numbers, imprinted in the "big bang," determine the essential features of our entire physical world. Moreover, cosmic evolution is astonishingly sensitive to the values of these numbers. If any one of them were "untuned," there could be no stars and no life. This realization offers a radically new perspective on our universe, our place in it, and the nature of physical laws.

    Hendry retired in 2012 with a record-breaking seven World Champion titles under his belt, a record that remains to this day. He's now ready to tell his life story for the first time - from a childhood spent climbing the ranks of the sport, through the highs of the '90s and lows of the 2000s, to his life now as a sports pundit and commentator.With an insight into the world of the man behind the cue, and what made him such a top-class player, this is the definitive autobiography of the legend that is Stephen Hendry.

    If You Don't Have Kindle You Can Still Read This Book On Your Web Browser using Amazon Free Cloud Reader This book contains proven steps and strategies on how to communicate using the basics of the Spanish language. Divided into 10 chapters (one chapter per day), this book is designed to provide a step by step learning guide on Spanish grammar, vocabulary, and pronunciation. Plus, it features a series of useful common everyday expressions. This book is written in a conversational style that’s easy to follow and understand. After reading this book, you’ll never have to say “No hablo Español” ever again! Here Is A Preview Of What You'll Learn After Downloading Spanish For Beginners The Spanish Alphabet (El Alfabeto Español) Saludos y Expresiones (Greetings & Expressions) Basic Vocabulary Spanish Plurals Gender Capitalization Artículos (Articles) Pronombres (Pronouns) El Verbos (Verbs) Adjetivos españoles (Spanish Adjectives) Much, much more! Take Action Right Away and START your journey with Spanish! Download your copy today for just $2.99!

    Heath's translation of the thirteen books of Euclid's Elements. In keeping with Green Lion's design commitment, diagrams have been placed on every spread for convenient reference while working through the proofs; running heads on every page indicate both Euclid's book number and proposition numbers for that page; and adequate space for notes is allowed between propositions and around diagrams. The all-new index has built into it a glossary of Euclid's Greek terms.Heath's translation has stood the test of time, and, as one done by a renowned scholar of ancient mathematics, it can be relied upon not to have inadvertantly introduced modern concepts or nomenclature. We have excised the voluminous historical and scholarly commentary that swells the Dover edition to three volumes and impedes classroom use of the original text. The single volume is not only more convenient, but less expensive as well.

    Traditional mathematics teaching is largely about solving exactly stated problems exactly, yet life often hands us partly defined problems needing only moderately accurate solutions. This engaging book is an antidote to the rigor mortis brought on by too much mathematical rigor, teaching us how to guess answers without needing a proof or an exact calculation.In Street-Fighting Mathematics, Sanjoy Mahajan builds, sharpens, and demonstrates tools for educated guessing and down-and-dirty, opportunistic problem solving across diverse fields of knowledge--from mathematics to management. Mahajan describes six tools: dimensional analysis, easy cases, lumping, picture proofs, successive approximation, and reasoning by analogy. Illustrating each tool with numerous examples, he carefully separates the tool--the general principle--from the particular application so that the reader can most easily grasp the tool itself to use on problems of particular interest. Street-Fighting Mathematics grew out of a short course taught by the author at MIT for students ranging from first-year undergraduates to graduate students ready for careers in physics, mathematics, management, electrical engineering, computer science, and biology. They benefited from an approach that avoided rigor and taught them how to use mathematics to solve real problems.Street-Fighting Mathematics will appear in print and online under a Creative Commons Noncommercial Share Alike license.

    They can defeat you or they can bring life. They can make the difference in your finances and your well-being. God created the universe by speaking it into existence and He has given you the same ability. Learn to turn your financial situation around by following the powerful principles of faith contained in this book. Don't live another day in lack - start releasing the ability of God through faith filled words! The God's Creative Power series has sold over 3 million copies, and now you can change your finances through the power of God's Word.

    30,000 first printing."

    From suburban Hopkinton, Massachusetts, to the center of metropolitan Boston, here are the mile-by-mile sights and sounds experienced by the runners. Interwoven throughout is the colorful history of the men and women of manifold skills who have competed in this preeminent event over the span of more than a century. Profusely illustrated with photographs and maps, 26 MILES TO BOSTON is a book for anyone who's ever wondered what it might be like to run the Boston Marathon.

    This is the story of the trials and exploits, the victories and defeats, of one of those units. This book takes us from the first ever assault against a terrorist ship carrying weapons of mass destruction to attack London, to the epic siege of the terrorist-held Qala-I-Janghi fortress in Afghanistan. In the interim, our half-a-dozen soldier-characters deliver suitcases stuffed with millions of dollars in cash to 'friendly' Afghan warlords; they penetrate the towering heights of the uncharted Naka Valley, where allied intelligence has identified the mother of all terrorist training camps; they fight in the labyrinthine tunnels running beneath the Afghan mountains; and they risk all to rescue their fellow soldiers from a downed aircraft stranded on a snow-blasted mountain peak. The book culminates in the single battle in which more terrorists were killed than any other in Afghanistan: the siege of Qala-I-Janghi, an ancient mud-walled fortress used to imprison the most dangerous Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters. The battle for Qala-I-Janghi would last a staggering eight days, from the moment of the first shots being fired at the start of the uprising to the hour that the fort yielded up the last Al Qaeda fighters. It is a battle in which over 500 terrorists would die - but which would also claim the life of a US serviceman and dozens of Northern Alliance allies, with scores of severely wounded British and American soldiers. And in the final denouement, this savage battlefield turns out to be populated by the most ultimately shocking enemy - John Walker Lindh, the white American Taliban who held out in the forts' bunker until the very last. At the same time as the story of the fort siege played out on TV screens all across the world, our band of British and American special forces were involved in a secret, deadly dual to rescue their fellow men - a duel that only one side could win.

    When a fly fishing guide discovers his favorite spot is in jeopardy and the secret it holds. Together with the son of his nemesis and a reluctant local woman, he sets out to save the Key.