Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    It is a hands-on guide to learning about the natural environment of California. Subjects covered include California natural history and geology, native plants and animals, California's freshwater resources and ecosystems, forest and rangeland resources, conservation biology, and the effects of global warming on California's natural communities. The Handbook also discusses how to create and use a field notebook, natural resource interpretation, citizen science, and collaborative conservation and serves as the primary text for the California Naturalist Program.

    The New Keto-Friendly South Beach Diet combines the good fats and healthy carbs of the world-famous heart-healthy program with the advanced nutrition science of keto-all in a doctor-approved plan that is easier than strict keto diets.The original South Beach Diet defined the cutting edge of healthy weight loss. Now the creator of the classic plan combines his signature diet with the latest, most cutting-edge advances in healthy eating that are the basis for the ketogenic diet. With a new emphasis on good carbs, healthy fats, and quality proteins, The New Keto-Friendly South Beach Diet takes the powerful fundamentals of the original South Beach Diet and adds the fat-burning principles of keto. Dr. Arthur Agatston cuts through the confusion around keto and low carb diets and gives readers a step-by-step 28-day eating plan that increases satisfaction, decreases appetite, and makes it easy to lose weight and keep it off. He also explains why strict ketosis is not necessary to achieve results; the effectiveness of intermittent fasting; and the relationship between yo-yo-dieting and sugar addiction.This plan offers the benefits of keto and low carb without the pitfalls. As this new book reveals, you can boost your metabolism and put your body safely into fat-burning mode with a diet that's more flexible and more sustainable than traditional keto. And that's not all: in addition to long-term weight loss, the South Beach Keto-Friendly plan can boost mental sharpness, reduce inflammation and pain, increase your energy, and improve diabetes and heart health. Includes around 100 recipes, full-color photos, and an easy-to-follow 28-day meal plan.

    Wallace Wattles, one of the father of motivation and success, whose work inspired "the secret", is now complete in one great volume of 9 BOOKS: — The Science of Getting Rich — The Science of Being Great — The Science of Being Well — How to Get What You Want — A New Christ — Jesus: The Man and his Work — Making the Man who can (How to Promote Yourself) — The New Science of Living and Healing — Hellfire Harrison (a novel)

    But what if your canoeing partner brings along a satellite phone to use in case of an emergency? And, struck by the novelty of anywhere-on-earth communication, he proceeds to use the phone to check in with his law office, his wife, kids, sisters, father, and friends? Noted wilderness traveler and author Ted Kerasote deals with just such a situation as he journeys along the Horton River through the largest ice-free, roadless area left on Earth, a stunning wilderness of grizzly bears, caribou, and migrating birds. Between navigating rapids, slipping around musk ox and grizzlies, and being pinned down by Arctic storms, the two friends prod each other into a finer understanding of love, marriage, parenting, and the meaning of solitude in an increasingly wired world. Contrasting his own experiences with those of the regions earliest explorers--Sir John Franklin and Vilhjalmur Stefansson--Kerasote provides a compelling and humorous take on how travelers from any age adjust to being away from their civilizations and how getting "out there" has inevitably changed but has also remained the same--especially if you shut off the phone.

    Author Chad Waterbury offers the most current neuromuscular science to debunk the fitness myths and conventional wisdom that may be wreaking havoc on your workouts and inhibiting your gains. Forget lifting moderate weights slowly for lots and lots of sets and reps. The best way to get huge in a hurry is to use heavy weights and lift them quickly for fewer repetitions. Waterbury's groundbreaking programs will enable you to: -Add Mass and size. Gain as much as 16 pounds of muscle in 16 weeks--and add 1 full inch of upper arm circumference in half that time!-Get stronger...fast! Even seasoned lifters can realize a 5 percent increase in strength in the first few weeks. And in 12 weeks, you can boost your overall strength by up to 38 percent.-Build power and stamina. Increase your one-rep max in your core lifts by as much as 30 percent.-Shed fat fast. Burn off up to 10 pounds of body fat, losing up to 2 pounds of fat per week.With Men's Health Huge in a Hurry, you'll not only get bigger faster, you'll do it with less time wasted in the gym and with less post workout pain and a much lower injury risk.

    As one of the soldiers on the front line of Operation Iraqi Freedom, Lieutenant Scotti was taught that weakness is what gets you killed: no hesitation, focus your energies on your objective, and complete the mission. Upon returning from war, Scotti approached his new life the same way. He ignored the creeping depression and numbness he called "The Blue Cascade" and charged ahead toward his goal to get an MBA, secure a high-paying finance job, and retire young and rich. But he was being eaten away inside, and scenes of drunken emotion and raging violence were becoming more and more frequent. Years after returning from active combat, he eventually found himself contemplating suicide. Through a series of powerful events, Scotti was ultimately able to find a path to healing and begin his journey back to life, finally emerging with the following wisdom for fellow sufferers of post-traumatic stress: It's ok if you are not ok.

    Important-Process to Activate 1 year subscription: Obtain PIN from scratch-off pad; Go to the website link mentioned on the voucher; Enter PIN and follow instructions Note- this is the activation key card; Software needs to be downloaded from the link after following the instructions; Approximate size- 300 MB; Download speed depends on the internet connection Real time Anti Malware - Blocks/Prevents threats and issues like viruses, malware, Trojans, ransomware and spyware It has an adaptive Two-Way Firewall- which safeguards your system For Technical Assistance please contact McAfee India Support on McAfee-Customer Service Tel: 1 800 3000 2656 (Toll Free); 1800 3000 2454, for any activation issues use mcafee.com/activate 15 offers from 135.00

    The atomic bombs that came out of it brought an end to the war in the Pacific, but at a heavy loss of life in Japan and the opening of a Pandora's box that has tested international relations.This book traces the history of the Manhattan Project, from the first glimmerings of the possibility of such a catastrophic weapon to the aftermath of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It profiles the architects of the bomb and how they tried to reconcile their personal feelings with their ambition as scientists. It looks at the role of the politicians and it includes first-hand accounts of those who experienced the effects of the bombings.

    The world of golf is at a crossroads. As tech­nological innovations displace traditional philosophies, the golfing community has splintered into two deeply combative factions: the old-school teachers and players who believe in feel, artistry, and imagination, and the technical minded who want to remake the game around data. In Golf’s Holy War, Brett Cyrgalis takes readers inside the heated battle playing out from weekend hackers to PGA Tour pros. At the Titleist Performance Institute in Oceanside, California, golfers clad in full-body sensors target weaknesses in their biomechanics, while others take part in mental exercises designed to test their brain’s psychological resilience. Meanwhile, coaches like Michael Hebron purge golfers of all technical infor­mation, tapping into the power of intuitive physical learning by playing rudimentary games. From historic St. Andrews to manicured Augusta, experimental com­munes in California to corporatized conferences in Orlando, William James to Ben Hogan to theoretical physics, the factions of the spiritual and technical push to redefine the boundaries of the game. And yet what does it say that Tiger Woods has orchestrated one of the greatest comebacks in sports history without the aid of a formal coach? But Golf’s Holy War is more than just a book about golf—it’s a story about modern life and how we are torn between resisting and embracing the changes brought about by the advancements of science and technology. It’s also an exploration of historical legacies, the enriching bonds of education, and the many interpretations of reality.

    In Longevity Now, Wolfe exposes the number-one cause of all degenerative illness and aging: calcification. Caused by an excess of calcium and the presence of nanobacteria, calcification can be found in some degree in virtually every adult and even some children. It leads to a plethora of illnesses and manifests as achy joints, hardened arteries, cellulite, cysts, kidney stones, gallstones, dental plaque, cataracts, and bone spurs, among many other health problems. By breaking down calcification and removing parasites, heavy metals, and other "unwanted guests" from your system, you can reverse the aging process and eliminate the prospect of degenerative disease from your future.Part 1 of the Longevity Now Program focuses on supplements to dissolve the buildup of calcium in your system, leading to freer movement, a clearer head, and a lighter step. Part 2 focuses on boosting your immunity, using a variety of supplements to make your body as resilient as possible. Part 3 focuses on rejuvenating each and every cell of your body with nutrient-packed supplements and superfoods. Part 4 focuses on using special electromagnetic grounding technologies to eliminate parasites and reconnect you with the rhythmic cycles of Earth's energy field. Part 5 focuses on deep-tissue bodywork and yoga, so that you can move blocked energy around and break up stagnation in typically unaccessed parts of the body.In addition to all this, Wolfe offers abundant additional information to help you more fully live the Longevity Now lifestyle, such as foods to avoid, healthful alternative sweeteners, delicious recipes, and more tips and tricks to keep you on the path of rejuvenation, radiant health, and full-throttle vitality.From the Hardcover edition.

     During fourteen years, from 1955 to 1969, the Soviet Union and the United States of America were engaged in a dramatic race against each other to conquer space. This period encompassed dramatic victories, humbling defeats, and more than one tragedy. This is a story of human courage and ingenuity at its best and political maneuvering at its worst, of almost unbelievable technological progress undertaken with the object not just of advancing human knowledge but also of proving the superiority of one country over another. Inside you will read about... ✓ From Missiles to Rockets ✓ Russia Takes the Lead ✓ Early American Failures ✓ The First Men in Space ✓ Fatalities on Both Sides ✓ The Moon Landing And much more! The space race culminated in man setting foot upon the moon, but each milestone on the way to that final goal was bitterly contested. Two powerful nations pledged a substantial part of their national resources to beat the other in a scientific and technological race to be the first to achieve new records. In terms of contests between major powers, there has never been anything quite as dramatic, public, and sustained as the space race; it remains one of the most fascinating and engaging episodes of the Cold War.

    The sixteenth and seventeenth centuries witnessed the Copernican Revolution, which bodychecked the Earth as the pivot point of creation and joined us with the rest of the cosmos as one planet among many orbiting the Sun. Three centuries later came the second great scientific revolution: the Darwinian Revolution. It removed us from a distinct, divine biological status to place us wholly in the ebb and flow of all terrestrial life. This book describes how we’re in the midst of a third great scientific revolution, five centuries in the making: the Stardust Revolution. It is the merging of the once-disparate realms of astronomy and evolutionary biology, and of the Copernican and Darwinian Revolutions, placing life in a cosmic context. This book takes readers on a grand journey that begins on the summit of California’s Mount Wilson, where astronomers first realized that the universe is both expanding and evolving, to a radio telescope used to identify how organic molecules—the building blocks of life—are made by stars. It’s an epic story told through a scientific cast that includes some of the twentieth century’s greatest minds—including Nobel laureate Charles Townes, who discovered cosmic water—as well as the most ambitious scientific explorers of the twenty-first century, those racing to find another living planet. Today, an entirely new breed of scientists—astrobiologists and astrochemists—are taking the study of life into the space age. Astrobiologists study the origins, evolution, and distribution of life, not just on Earth, but in the universe. Stardust science is filling in the missing links in our evolutionary story, ones that extend our family tree back to the stars.

    Now in Over the Edge of the World, biographer and journalist Laurence Bergreen entwines a variety of candid, firsthand accounts, bringing to life this groundbreaking and majestic tale of discovery that changed both the way explorers would henceforth navigate the oceans and history itself.

    Still broody, but not really wanting to add to her family, she realised that becoming a midwife was her true vocation. It was a long journey to get the education and qualifications she needed, especially with a young family, but she was determined and never doubted her decision. Following her training, she spent two years working within the NHS, but her naturally independent spirit fought against the constraints of the system and fourteen years ago she decided to set up on her own. Virginia works with mothers who want to give birth at home naturally, something which Virginia believes in passionately. 350 births later, Virginia still loves what she does.The Baby's Coming is Virginia's memoir and tells the stories of her training as a midwife as well as some of the most memorable births: the most dramatic, the most touching. Virginia particularly remembers the births of her own grandchildren whose arrivals in the world were some of the most special moments for her as both a midwife and grandmother.