But now, astonishing new research is revealing patterns in human behavior previously thought to be purely random. Precise, orderly, predictable patterns... Albert Laszlo Barabasi, already the world's preeminent researcher on the science of networks, describes his work on this profound mystery in Bursts, a stunningly original investigation into human nature. His approach relies on the digital reality of our world, from mobile phones to the Internet and email, because it has turned society into a huge research laboratory. All those electronic trails of time stamped texts, voicemails, and internet searches add up to a previously unavailable massive data set of statistics that track our movements, our decisions, our lives. Analysis of these trails is offering deep insights into the rhythm of how we do everything. His finding? We work and fight and play in short flourishes of activity followed by next to nothing. The pattern isn't random, it's "bursty." Randomness does not rule our lives in the way scientists have assumed up until now. Illustrating this revolutionary science, Barabasi artfully weaves together the story of a 16th century burst of human activity-a bloody medieval crusade launched in his homeland, Transylvania-with the modern tale of a contemporary artist hunted by the FBI through our post 9/11 surveillance society. These narratives illustrate how predicting human behavior has long been the obsession, sometimes the duty, of those in power. Barabási's astonishingly wide range of examples from seemingly unrelated areas include how dollar bills move around the U.S., the pattern everyone follows in writing email, the spread of epidemics, and even the flight patterns of albatross. In all these phenomena a virtually identical, mathematically described bursty pattern emerges.Bursts reveals what this amazing new research is showing us about where individual spontaneity ends and predictability in human behavior begins. The way you think about your own potential to do something truly extraordinary will never be the same.

    Properly understood, they can tell us how the teams we root for could employ better strategies, put more effective players on the field, and win more games. The revolution in baseball statistics that began in the 1970s is a controversial subject that professionals and fans alike argue over without end. Despite this fundamental change in the way we watch and understand the sport, no one has written the book that reveals, across every area of strategy and management, how the best practitioners of statistical analysis in baseball-people like Bill James, Billy Beane, and Theo Epstein-think about numbers and the game. Baseball Between the Numbers is that book. In separate chapters covering every aspect of the game, from hitting, pitching, and fielding to roster construction and the scouting and drafting of players, the experts at Baseball Prospectus examine the subtle, hidden aspects of the game, bring them out into the open, and show us how our favorite teams could win more games. This is a book that every fan, every follower of sports radio, every fantasy player, every coach, and every player, at every level, can learn from and enjoy.

    R is one of the most powerful and flexible statistical software packages available, and enables the user to apply a wide variety of statistical methods ranging from simple regression to generalized linear modelling. Statistics: An Introduction using R is a clear and concise introductory textbook to statistical analysis using this powerful and free software, and follows on from the success of the author's previous best-selling title Statistical Computing. * Features step-by-step instructions that assume no mathematics, statistics or programming background, helping the non-statistician to fully understand the methodology. * Uses a series of realistic examples, developing step-wise from the simplest cases, with the emphasis on checking the assumptions (e.g. constancy of variance and normality of errors) and the adequacy of the model chosen to fit the data. * The emphasis throughout is on estimation of effect sizes and confidence intervals, rather than on hypothesis testing. * Covers the full range of statistical techniques likely to be need to analyse the data from research projects, including elementary material like t-tests and chi-squared tests, intermediate methods like regression and analysis of variance, and more advanced techniques like generalized linear modelling. * Includes numerous worked examples and exercises within each chapter. * Accompanied by a website featuring worked examples, data sets, exercises and solutions: http: //www.imperial.ac.uk/bio/research/crawl... Statistics: An Introduction using R is the first text to offer such a concise introduction to a broad array of statistical methods, at a level that is elementary enough to appeal to a broad range of disciplines. It is primarily aimed at undergraduate students in medicine, engineering, economics and biology - but will also appeal to postgraduates who have not previously covered this area, or wish to switch to using R.

    Politicians and marketers present shoddy evidence for dubious claims all the time. But smart people make mistakes too, and when it comes to statistics, plenty of otherwise great scientists--yes, even those published in peer-reviewed journals--are doing statistics wrong."Statistics Done Wrong" comes to the rescue with cautionary tales of all-too-common statistical fallacies. It'll help you see where and why researchers often go wrong and teach you the best practices for avoiding their mistakes.In this book, you'll learn: - Why "statistically significant" doesn't necessarily imply practical significance- Ideas behind hypothesis testing and regression analysis, and common misinterpretations of those ideas- How and how not to ask questions, design experiments, and work with data- Why many studies have too little data to detect what they're looking for-and, surprisingly, why this means published results are often overestimates- Why false positives are much more common than "significant at the 5% level" would suggestBy walking through colorful examples of statistics gone awry, the book offers approachable lessons on proper methodology, and each chapter ends with pro tips for practicing scientists and statisticians. No matter what your level of experience, "Statistics Done Wrong" will teach you how to be a better analyst, data scientist, or researcher.

    Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today's model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work.The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation.By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling.Web ResourceThe book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author's website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

    In The Perfect Bet, mathematician and award-winning writer Adam Kucharski tells the astonishing story of how the experts have succeeded, revolutionizing mathematics and science in the process. The house can seem unbeatable. Kucharski shows us just why it isn't. Even better, he demonstrates how the search for the perfect bet has been crucial for the scientific pursuit of a better world.

    It is the technology behind photo tagging systems at Facebook and Google, self-driving cars, speech recognition systems on your smartphone, and much more.In particular, Deep learning excels at solving machine perception problems: understanding the content of image data, video data, or sound data. Here's a simple example: say you have a large collection of images, and that you want tags associated with each image, for example, "dog," "cat," etc. Deep learning can allow you to create a system that understands how to map such tags to images, learning only from examples. This system can then be applied to new images, automating the task of photo tagging. A deep learning model only has to be fed examples of a task to start generating useful results on new data.

    The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile,and The Bed of Procrustes.

    I did it all by myself, and I did it all inside a tiny niche. This isn't some get-rich-quick scheme or "push a button and make money" type approach. Rather, it's about understanding how to enhance your personal brand, how to leverage LinkedIn's built-in advantages and how to apply the specific type of selling psychology that generates nonstop leads and customers when done correctly. The simple formula I’ll teach you works in any niche, takes just a few minutes a day to apply and drives targeted, ready-to-buy prospects to your virtual front door. It doesn’t matter what your experience level is when it comes to LinkedIn – literally anyone can do this! Find out RIGHT NOW just how easy it is! Inside This Book You’ll Discover: - How to ensure your LinkedIn profile ranks #1 in your niche or industry - How to instantly locate your ideal prospects on LinkedIn no matter what industry you’re in - How to engage your ideal prospects on LinkedIn by creating instant likability and trust - How to create content on LinkedIn that establishes your credibility and attracts your ideal prospects - How to turn LinkedIn Groups into your own personal ATM Machine - How to move new LinkedIn connections from prospects to paying customers as quickly as possible ABOUT THE AUTHOR JOHN NEMO is a former Associated Press Reporter, Award-Winning PR Director and Social Media Consultant who generated more than $135,000 in revenue for his business in just 90 days using LinkedIn. He is the creator of www.LinkedInRiches.com, an online training course that helps brands, businesses and individuals leverage LinkedIn to generate more sales leads, add new clients and increase revenue. In addition to public speaking, live trainings and presentations, Nemo also offers 1-on-1 coaching and consulting services to clients worldwide in a variety of business development, marketing and lead generation areas. The author of five previous books, John Nemo has written for nearly 150 different national and regional publications over the past 20 years, including Sports Illustrated online, The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Chicago Sun-Times and The Arizona Republic. He lives near St. Paul, Minnesota with his wife, Sara, their three sons and Rosie the dog.

    In adollars-and-cents, bottom-line world, where numbers influenceeverything, none of us can afford to let our math skills atrophy.This step-by-step personal math trainer:Refreshes practical math skills for your personal andprofessional needs, with examples based on everyday situations. Offers straightforward techniques for working with decimals and fractions. Demonstrates simple ways to figure discounts, calculatemortgage interest rates, and work out time, rate, and distance problems. Contains no complex formulas and no unnecessary technical terms.

    It can be used in a variety of disciplines and is ideal for an introductory comprehensive undergraduate or graduate level course. Through its conversational, informal style it makes material that is often challenging for students both accessible and understandable. The Research Methods Knowledge Base, 3e covers everything from the development of a research question to the writing of a final report, describing both practical and technical issues of sampling, measurement, design and analysis.

    The Calculus Lifesaver provides students with the essential tools they need not only to learn calculus, but to excel at it.All of the material in this user-friendly study guide has been proven to get results. The book arose from Adrian Banner's popular calculus review course at Princeton University, which he developed especially for students who are motivated to earn A's but get only average grades on exams. The complete course will be available for free on the Web in a series of videotaped lectures. This study guide works as a supplement to any single-variable calculus course or textbook. Coupled with a selection of exercises, the book can also be used as a textbook in its own right. The style is informal, non-intimidating, and even entertaining, without sacrificing comprehensiveness. The author elaborates standard course material with scores of detailed examples that treat the reader to an inner monologue--the train of thought students should be following in order to solve the problem--providing the necessary reasoning as well as the solution. The book's emphasis is on building problem-solving skills. Examples range from easy to difficult and illustrate the in-depth presentation of theory.The Calculus Lifesaver combines ease of use and readability with the depth of content and mathematical rigor of the best calculus textbooks. It is an indispensable volume for any student seeking to master calculus.Serves as a companion to any single-variable calculus textbookInformal, entertaining, and not intimidatingInformative videos that follow the book--a full forty-eight hours of Banner's Princeton calculus-review course--is available at Adrian Banner lecturesMore than 475 examples (ranging from easy to hard) provide step-by-step reasoningTheorems and methods justified and connections made to actual practiceDifficult topics such as improper integrals and infinite series covered in detailTried and tested by students taking freshman calculus

    Most of the time this math works quietly behind the scenes . . . until it doesn't. All sorts of seemingly innocuous mathematical mistakes can have significant consequences.Math is easy to ignore until a misplaced decimal point upends the stock market, a unit conversion error causes a plane to crash, or someone divides by zero and stalls a battleship in the middle of the ocean.Exploring and explaining a litany of glitches, near misses, and mathematical mishaps involving the internet, big data, elections, street signs, lotteries, the Roman Empire, and an Olympic team, Matt Parker uncovers the bizarre ways math trips us up, and what this reveals about its essential place in our world. Getting it wrong has never been more fun.

    Kathryn Schulz, editor of Grist magazine, argues that error is the fundamental human condition and should be celebrated as such. Guiding the reader through the history and psychology of error, from Socrates to Alan Greenspan, Being Wrong will change the way you perceive screw-ups, both of the mammoth and daily variety, forever.

    Whether they bind computers, economies, or terrorist organizations, networks are everywhere in the real world, yet only recently have scientists attempted to explain their mysterious workings.From epidemics of disease to outbreaks of market madness, from people searching for information to firms surviving crisis and change, from the structure of personal relationships to the technological and social choices of entire societies, Watts weaves together a network of discoveries across an array of disciplines to tell the story of an explosive new field of knowledge, the people who are building it, and his own peculiar path in forging this new science.