With boundless erudition and in delightfully clear prose, Surowiecki ranges across fields as diverse as popular culture, psychology, ant biology, behavioral economics, artificial intelligence, military history, and politics to show how this simple idea offers important lessons for how we live our lives, select our leaders, run our companies, and think about our world.

      Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence -- and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders. In The Art of Statistics, world-renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows readers how to derive knowledge from raw data by focusing on the concepts and connections behind the math. Drawing on real world examples to introduce complex issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether a notorious serial killer could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. The Art of Statistics not only shows us how mathematicians have used statistical science to solve these problems -- it teaches us how we too can think like statisticians. We learn how to clarify our questions, assumptions, and expectations when approaching a problem, and -- perhaps even more importantly -- we learn how to responsibly interpret the answers we receive. Combining the incomparable insight of an expert with the playful enthusiasm of an aficionado, The Art of Statistics is the definitive guide to stats that every modern person needs.

    In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Sometimes, the unscrupulous deliberately try to mislead us. Other times, the well-intentioned are blissfully unaware of the mischief they are committing. Today, data is so plentiful that researchers spend precious little time distinguishing between good, meaningful indicators and total rubbish. Not only do others use data to fool us, we fool ourselves.With the breakout success of Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise, the once humdrum subject of statistics has never been hotter. Drawing on breakthrough research in behavioral economics by luminaries like Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely and taking to task some of the conclusions of Freakonomics author Steven D. Levitt, Standard Deviations demystifies the science behind statistics and makes it easy to spot the fraud all around.

    Written in a way that even the financial novice can easily absorb, this is a new edition of the bestselling guide to understanding and using business accounts and accounting principles.

    Everything else can be made, bought or created. Our life is made up of around 600,000 hours and every second is of infinite value. We live in an attention economy where corporations are fighting for our time with the goal of monetizing our every second. The money we use loses value and devalues our time through inflation. When we work, we are exchanging our limited time for money whose quantity increases every year. It hasn’t always been this way. People used gold as money for a reason; it was also a limited resource. Now, what does the future hold?Valuing your time is the first step to improving your life. Knowing that your time is the only limited resource makes you more selective about the things you do, the people you spend your time with and the assets you choose to store your wealth in. Once you learn to appreciate your time, you will get busy doing the things you love and start making better financial choices.

    But do you know enough about these new consumers to convert them into customers?Do you know that:• There will be nearly one billion middle-class consumers in China and India within the next ten years?• More than 135 million Chinese and Indians will graduate from college in this timeframe, compared to just 30 million in the United States?• By 2020, 68 percent of Chinese households and 57 percent of Indian households will be in the middle and upper classes?• The number of billionaires in China has grown from 1 to 115 in the past decade alone?In The $10 Trillion Prize, bestselling author Michael J. Silverstein and his The Boston Consulting Group colleagues in China and India provide the first comprehensive profile of the emerging middle class, primed to transform the global marketplace. Already the world’s biggest buyers of cars, mobile phones, appliances, and more, these consumers are eager for more products and services. In fact, it’s estimated that by 2020, consumers in China and India will generate more than $10 trillion of total annual revenue for companies selling to them.This book explains who these consumers are—what they buy and why, how they think and shop, and how their needs and tastes are changing. It takes you into their lives so you can better understand what they want and what they’re looking for.Only by fully comprehending the forces driving this new generation of consumers will your company be able to capitalize on the opportunities their buying power represents. Insightful and backed by rigorous research, this book takes you inside the hearts and minds of today’s emerging Chinese and Indian consumers—both urban and rural, and across all income levels—positioning your company to win as the next wave of global affluence reaches the marketplace.

    No confusing jargon. No unnecessary mumbo-jumbo. Just clear, easy-to-understand explanations of more than 40 of the most popular option strategies broken down into a play-by-play format including: Play Name: Long Call, Short Call Spread, Iron Condor, etc. The Setup: The goals and reasons to run each play Who Should Run It: Rookies, Veterans or All-Stars, based on degree of difficulty When To Run It: Describes each play as bullish, bearish or neutral The Strategy: A detailed overview of each strategy, their risks and the specific costs associated with multi-leg strategies. description For the first-time option trader The Options Playbook features a "Rookie's Corner," addressing the basic definitions and concepts you need to understand this market, tips to avoid common beginner's mistakes, and suggested strategies to "get your feet wet." For more experienced option traders, an expanded section on implied volatility explains how this handy variable can be used to find the potential range of the stock over the options life. A detailed section on pricing variables (Greeks) helps you understand how an option's price is affected by changes in market conditions. You will also learn how time decay and a change in implied volatility can affect your trade after it's in place and how to recover if things don't go according to plan. The Options Playbook features Options Guy Tips from TradeKing Senior Analyst Brian Overby. Like any good coach, Overby's handy insights help you put theory into successful real-world trading. This expanded 2nd edition includes 10 new plays and 56 new pages of handy content describing a brief history of options, five common mistakes options traders make and how to avoid them, an expanded glossary, how to manage option positions by rolling to a different month and strike, to explaining the difference between index and stock options, managing early exercise and assignment and how to calculate position delta and use it to manage overall position risk of a multi-leg option strategy. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. It is possible to lose more money than invested. Before making any investment decisions, please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options that accompanies The Options Playbook and available at: tradeking.com/ODD. (c) 2015 TradeKing Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Securities offered through TradeKing, LLC, member FINRA and SIPC.

    Luenberger, known for his ability to make complex ideas simple, presents essential ideas of investments and their applications, offering students the most comprehensive treatment of the subject available.

    

    And yet, we are the safest and healthiest humans in history. Irrational fear seems to be taking over, often with tragic results. For example, in the months after 9/11, when people decided to drive instead of fly—believing they were avoiding risk—road deaths rose by more than 1,500. In this fascinating, lucid, and thoroughly entertaining examination of how humans process risk, journalist Dan Gardner had the exclusive cooperation of Paul Slovic, the world renowned risk-science pioneer, as he reveals how our hunter gatherer brains struggle to make sense of a world utterly unlike the one that made them. Filled with illuminating real world examples, interviews with experts, and fast-paced, lean storytelling, The Science of Fear shows why it is truer than ever that the worst thing we have to fear is fear itself.

    Dozens of examples in innumeracy show us how it affects not only personal economics and travel plans, but explains mis-chosen mates, inappropriate drug-testing, and the allure of pseudo-science.

    Politicians and marketers present shoddy evidence for dubious claims all the time. But smart people make mistakes too, and when it comes to statistics, plenty of otherwise great scientists--yes, even those published in peer-reviewed journals--are doing statistics wrong."Statistics Done Wrong" comes to the rescue with cautionary tales of all-too-common statistical fallacies. It'll help you see where and why researchers often go wrong and teach you the best practices for avoiding their mistakes.In this book, you'll learn: - Why "statistically significant" doesn't necessarily imply practical significance- Ideas behind hypothesis testing and regression analysis, and common misinterpretations of those ideas- How and how not to ask questions, design experiments, and work with data- Why many studies have too little data to detect what they're looking for-and, surprisingly, why this means published results are often overestimates- Why false positives are much more common than "significant at the 5% level" would suggestBy walking through colorful examples of statistics gone awry, the book offers approachable lessons on proper methodology, and each chapter ends with pro tips for practicing scientists and statisticians. No matter what your level of experience, "Statistics Done Wrong" will teach you how to be a better analyst, data scientist, or researcher.

    Even if your dream is perhaps more modest, and you simply want to have a second income trading the forex markets, then again, this book is for you.How it will help youIt has been written with one clear objective in mind. To explain how and why currency markets move in the way they do, using the combined power of relational, technical and fundamental analysis. Combine this with a three-dimensional approach to trading itself, using multiple time frames and multiple chart analysis, and the world of foreign exchange will become crystal clear. Many aspiring traders, simply do not realize that the forex market sits at the heart of the financial world, which, when you think about it logically, is really common sense. After all, this is the biggest money market in the world, and if the financial markets are about one thing, they are about money. Making it, protecting it, or increasing the return. What you will discoverIn the book, you will discover how changes in market sentiment in the primary markets of commodities, stocks, bonds, and equities, are then reflected in the currency markets. This is something which often surprises novice traders. After all, why look at a stock index, or the price of gold, or a bond market? The answer is very simple. It is in these markets where you will find all the clues and signals, which reveal money flow. After all, the financial markets are all about risk. In other words, higher returns for higher risk, or lower returns for lower risk. You will trade with confidenceA Three Dimensional Approach To Forex Trading will empower you with knowledge. Knowledge and confidence go hand in hand. Confidence breeds success, and success breeds money, which will then flow from reading this book.

    It can almost be summed up by the button on every page: "Buy now with one click."Why has Amazon been so successful? Much of it has to do with Jeff Bezos, the CEO and founder, whose unique combination of character traits and business strategy have driven Amazon to the top of the online retail world.Richard Brandt charts Bezos's rise from computer nerd to world- changing entrepreneur. His success can be credited to his forward-looking insights and ruthless business sense. Brandt explains: Why Bezos decided to allow negative product reviews, correctly guessing that the earned trust would outweigh possible lost sales. Why Amazon zealously guards some patents yet freely shares others. Why Bezos called becoming profitable the "dumbest" thing they could do in 1997. How Amazon.com became one of the only dotcoms to survive the bust of the early 2000s. Where the company is headed next.Through interviews with Amazon employees, competitors, and observers, Brandt has deciphered how Bezos makes decisions. The story of Amazon's ongoing evolution is a case study in how to reinvent an entire industry, and one that anyone in business today ignores at their peril.

    That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics—we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us.” If we can toss aside our fears and learn to approach them clearly—understanding how our own preconceptions lead us astray—statistics can point to ways we can live better and work smarter.As “perhaps the best popular economics writer in the world” (New Statesman), Tim Harford is an expert at taking complicated ideas and untangling them for millions of readers. In The Data Detective, he uses new research in science and psychology to set out ten strategies for using statistics to erase our biases and replace them with new ideas that use virtues like patience, curiosity, and good sense to better understand ourselves and the world. As a result, The Data Detective is a big-idea book about statistics and human behavior that is fresh, unexpected, and insightful.