Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    It can teach anyone to play, we promise! Includes instruction CD with 99 tracks. We guarantee this book will get you started playing bluegrass banjo.

    Ridges, makes Acts through Revelation come alive in The New Testament Made Easier, Part 2. In-the-verse notes provide a unique teaching tool which allows you to read the complete King James Bible text of Acts through Revelation while, at the same time, being taught the meaning of difficult Bible words and phrases, symbolism, doctrine, culture and setting. Occasional notes between the verses clarify and alert you to major concepts and messages.

    When a resurgent Phil Mickelson won the Tour Championship in September 2009, he was quick to credit a series of simple putting lessons from veteran golf champion and instructor Dave Stockton. As a top coach, Stockton has taught a long list of pro players-including Annika Sorenstam, Yani Tseng (winner of four LPGA tournaments), Adam Scott (Texas Open champion), Hunter Mahan (Phoenix Open champion), and Morgan Pressel (World Ladies Championship of Japan winner)-the putting strategies that finessed their game.Stockton's breakthrough concept is that every player has their own Signature Stroke, which is unconscious. Good putting comes from the mind, Stockton says, not from a series of stiff mechanical positions. With visualization, the right frame of mind, an efficient pre-putt routine, and connection to the individual internal stroke signature, any player can make far more putts. Putting has always been taught as an offshoot to the full swing, when in reality it is far different- almost a different game. Unconscious Putting will help players get out of the rigid, mechanical, overthinking trap.In Unconscious Putting, Stockton shows how players at every handicap level-from pros to weekend golfers-can putt effortlessly and with confidence by integrating a new mental approach with a few simple physical routines that will keep them locked on target. Readers will also gain invaluable advice on reading greens and equipment. Illustrated throughout and filled with anecdotes about how Stockton's lessons have helped today's leading players, Unconscious Putting is a must-have golf book and a category classic-in-the-making.

    1 bestselling authors of MUMS KNOW BEST.

    Jacqueline demystifies the latest research, giving you up-to-the-minute guidance to get the most from your 5:2 Diet. 800 calorie ‘diet’ days Overnight fasting New junk food rules Over 100 new and revised recipes 800 Calorie Meal Plans This essential and easy-to-follow guide is choc-full of advice and help to get you started with The New 5:2 Diet. Bestselling diet author Jacqueline Whitehart makes the 5:2 Diet easier than ever before.

    You'll also learn tips and tricks to help you unlock the true potential of your device. Here are just some of the essentials you'll learn from this book: - Master the settings of your Kindle Fire HD device - Drastically reduce charge time & boost battery life - Setting up and using wireless networks - Utilizing security features to safeguard your device - Increase productivity: Skype, Email, Cloud Storage, Reading Documents, File Explorer - Sync your Kindle Fire HD to your computer, transfer your music and video seamlessly - Enhance your shopping and entertainment experience on Amazon and more... Kindle Fire HD Manual: The Complete Guide To Getting The Most Out Of Your Kindle Device is a comprehensive step-by-step, no fluff guide to help you master your device in no time. Get it while it's still available at this low price! **Scroll to the top of the page and click the buy button on the right to download this book now!**

    Everything a busy traveler needs is easy to access: a neighborhood overview, city walks and tours, sights, handy food and accommodations charts, an appendix packed with information on trip planning and practicalities, and a fold-out city map.Rick Steves Pocket Barcelona includes the following walks and tours:• Ramblas Ramble• Barri Gotic and Cathedral Tour• Picasso Museum Tour• Eixample Walk• Sagrada Familia Tour

    Bass MethodThe critically acclaimed Hal Leonard Electric Bass Method Second Edition in a handy composite edition Contains 3 books and 3 CDs for Levels 1, 2 and 3.

    Enjoy a thrilling intergalactic tour as Andrew Thomas redefines the force of gravity and introduces a brave new view of the universe!

    This book can be cut, drawn in, folded into shapes and will even take you to the fourth dimension. So join stand-up mathematician Matt Parker on a journey through narcissistic numbers, optimal dating algorithms, at least two different kinds of infinity and more.

    This crafty revision of English vocabulary posits that Platypus should signify “to give your cat pigtails;” that Flemish should mean “rather like snot;” and that Celtic is in fact a prison for fleas. With nearly 600 new definitions, this side-splitting resource pushes the boundaries of the English language to riotous new limits.

    Write books FASTER. Write BETTER books. Write MORE books. #1 Kindle Bestseller in Authorship, Writing Skills, and Business Writing - Jan. 2015! The Kindle self-publishing revolution is here! Are you in? Why spin your wheels struggling to write bulky, bloated books the traditional publishing way when you can turbo-charge your Kindle author platform with greater freedom, flexibility, and chances for success? This game-changing guide is for aspiring authors AND established publishing pros alike who want to shake-up their routine and embrace a powerful new approach to self-publishing non-fiction. Are you ready to Write Short Kindle Books? You'll learn: Why writing shorter Kindle books is the best approach for many non-fiction authors The benefits of boosting your volume with many shorter, high-quality books How to price your short ebooks for maximum success Ideal word counts for Kindle books How to break larger book ideas down into numerous smaller books How to brainstorm, outline, and write books faster and more efficiently How to save money on covers, editing, and Kindle book formatting Why building a team of Beta Readers is crucial How to bring your book from final draft to launch And much more! Click on "Look Inside" to Learn More!

    Is stoicism right for you? What can you learn from these ancient masters? Stoicism: Ultimate Handbook to Stoic Philosophy, Wisdom and Way of Life describes the core philosophies of the stoics: • Control What You Can • Emotions and Outcomes Exist Within • Honesty is a Virtue • Hope Never Dies • Knowledge Will Save You • Mindfulness is Important • Seek Morals, Not Awards • Stop On Time • Every Day Is A New Day You'll also learn the 4 Cardinal Virtues Of Stoicism: • Wisdom • Courage • Justice • Temperance What can Stoicism do for you in your everyday life? Stoicism: Ultimate Handbook to Stoic Philosophy, Wisdom and Way of Life also describes how Stoicism can help you in today's world. This ancient tradition can help you through tough times by teaching you to build your mental and physical strength and be a great leader. Also, you'll find that most religions agree with the philosophies and practices of Stoicism. Practicing Stoicism can help you cope with many negative emotions: • Stress • Judgment • Anger • Worry • Incompetence • Disappointment Download Stoicism: Ultimate Handbook to Stoic Philosophy, Wisdom and Way of Life NOW to find out about this amazing tradition that has stood the test of time. You'll be so glad you did!

    She founded the Facebook group Extreme Couponing and Bargains UK (the second largest Facebook group in the world) and is on TikTok, Youtube and Instagram helping as many people as possible to save money too.This book contains all her best hacks and tips to save money and make money - simple, life-changing ideas for everyone.Holly has included her favourite hacks from the Extreme Couponing and Bargains UK community too, who inspired her to write this book. And has asked all her money-saving expert friends to contribute tips too.All the costly moments of everyday life are included, from supermarket shops to kids parties - even special occasions like weddings and Christmas.Discover lots of fun ways to get saving, find the bargains and make your money go further.