Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    He was eager to begin his first practice, but it turned out to be more than he bargained for. In just two years, in September, 1918, the entire village was sickened in rapid succession in the flu pandemic that killed quickly and indiscriminately throughout the world. It was wartime, and Nixon was unable to find help., This story is an up close and personal account of what it was like to be sick with the HINI type virus in 1918. It is a tale of a dedicated doctor whose selflessness, compassion and courage helped the villagers survive in the pandemic that killed more people in a year than the Black Death killed in a century...

    This book provides the first complete identification guides to the birds of this teeming tropical paradise. It gives descriptions of 820 regional species, illustrated in 88 specially commissioned color plates accompanied by notes detailing distinctive features and habitats. Entries cover nomenclature, plumage, markings, voice, global range, distribution and regional status, habits, and diet. The main text gives practical information on where to find many exotic species, citing major birdwatching locations. Introductory chapters discuss habitats, climate, land-use, and conservation concerns. Professional ornithologists and amateur bird watchers alike will find this the indispensable bird guide for eastern Malaysia and western Indonesia for many years to come. It is also an unrivalled source of information for casual travellers and ecotourists.

    "Interpersonal Communication, 2e" demonstrates how effective interpersonal communication can make students' lives better. With careful consideration given to the impact of computer-mediated communication, the program reflects the rapid changes of the modern world in which today's students live and interact. The program also helps students understand and build interpersonal skills and choices for their academic, personal, and professional lives.

    It is the history of who you are and how you came to be. It is unique to you, as it is to each of the 100 billion modern humans who have ever drawn breath. But it is also our collective story, because in every one of our genomes we each carry the history of our species births, deaths, disease, war, famine, migration, and a lot of sex. Since scientists first read the human genome in 2001, it has been subject to all sorts of claims, counterclaims, and myths. In fact, as Adam Rutherford explains, our genomes should be read not as instruction manuals, but as epic poems. DNA determines far less than we have been led to believe about us as individuals, but vastly more about us as a species. In this captivating journey through the expanding landscape of genetics, Adam Rutherford reveals what our genes now tell us about history, and what history tells us about our genes. From Neanderthals to murder, from redheads to race, dead kings to plague, evolution to epigenetics, this is a demystifying and illuminating new portrait of who we are and how we came to be."

    A number of studies show a link between vitamin K2, bone health and heart health. Is vitamin K2 a nutrient you need more of in your diet? As physicians, we feel everyone needs to be aware of the role this vitamin plays in health and wellness. This concise ebook explores the link between vitamin K2 and how it may protect against some of the most common diseases you’re at risk for as you age. Here are some of the questions this book will answer: The Role of Vitamin K in Your Body How Vitamin K2 Differs from Vitamin K1 and Why Most People Don’t Get Enough of It The Various Isoforms of Vitamin K2 and Which Ones Are Most Important for Health The Role Vitamin K2 Plays in Bone Health and Osteoporosis Prevention Vitamin K2 and Heart Disease: Can It Lower Your Risk or Even Reverse Atherosclerosis? Do You Need a Vitamin K2 Supplement? Vitamin K2 and Cancer: Is There a Link? The Role Vitamin K2 Plays in Dental Health Are You at Risk for Vitamin K Deficiency? Can You Get Enough Vitamin K2 Through Diet Alone? The Best Dietary Source of Vitamin K2 Why You Must Have Vitamin K2 if You Take a Vitamin D Supplement Are There Risks to Taking a Vitamin K2 Supplement? One Type of Vitamin K2 Supplement Source You Should Avoid You should have a better understanding of the health benefits of vitamin K2 once you finish.

    Why would a man, married to an attractive young woman, want to sexually assault and murder innocent little girls?In the late 1960s, Cannock Chase in Staffordshire became the centre of the biggest murder hunt in Britain.The bodies of five year old Diane Tift, six year old Margaret Reynolds, and seven year old Christine Darby were found dumped there.The killer thought he was cleverer than the police and slipped through the net four times.He would have continued with the killings but he made a big mistake.Find out what happened and how the police eventually caught up with him.

    

    It reviews the research from multiple perspectives, but emphasizes the implications of social roles, status, and gender-related traits, particularly for relationships and health-areas that are central to students' lives and that have a great impact on their day-to-day functioning. The text is designed for upper-level undergraduate/graduate-level gender-focused courses in a variety of departments.

    Sam Low, the author, has sailed with us on three voyages, written numerous articles and now, after ten years of work, has finished Hawaiki Rising. This book is an important part of our 'olelo, our history, and it contains the mana of all those who helped create and sail Hokule'a." Nainoa Thompson

    Jay Withgott and new co-author Matt Laposata present the latest coverage of environmental science and introduce new FAQ sections to address common student misconceptions. Note: This is the standalone book if you want the book/access card order the ISBN below: 0321752546 / 9780321752543 Essential Environment: The Science behind the Stories Plus MasteringEnvironmentalScience with eText -- Access Card Package Package consists of: 0321752902 / 9780321752901 Essential Environment: The Science behind the Stories 0321754077 / 9780321754073 MasteringEnvironmentalScience with Pearson eText -- Valuepack Access Card -- Essential Environment: The Science behind the Stories (ME component) "

    Fields Cookies... What backward messages on records are really trying to tell you... Frank Sinatra's real age... Why you can't counterfeit a lottery ticket... Barbra Streisand's blue movie... The other Boy Scout rituals... Ingmar Bergman's soap commercials... The formula for Play-Doh... and more.

    It was in their steep Himalayan villages that McHugh came to know another culture, witnessing and learning the Buddhist appreciation for equanimity in moments of precious joy and inevitable sorrow.Love and Honor in the Himalayas is McHugh's gripping ethnographic memoir based on research among the Gurungs conducted over a span of fourteen years. As she chronicles the events of her fieldwork, she also tells a story that admits feeling and involvement, writing of the people who housed her in the terms in which they cast their relationship with her, that of family. Welcomed to call her host Ama and become a daughter in the household, McHugh engaged in a strong network of kin and friendship. She intimately describes, with a sure sense of comedy and pathos, the family's diverse experiences of life and loss, self and personhood, hope, knowledge, and affection. In mundane as well as dramatic rituals, the Gurungs ever emphasize the importance of love and honor in everyday life, regardless of circumstances, in all human relationships. Such was the lesson learned by McHugh, who arrived a young woman facing her own hardships and came to understand--and experience--the power of their ways of being.While it attends to a particular place and its inhabitants, Love and Honor in the Himalayas is, above all, about human possibility, about what people make of their lives. Through the compelling force of her narrative, McHugh lets her emotionally open fieldwork reveal insight into the privilege of joining a community and a culture. It is an invitation to sustain grace and kindness in the face of adversity, cultivate harmony and mutual support, and cherish life fully.

    ‘Hollywood: Did You Know?’ is a collection of tidbits of information about the content or making of around 400 movies, ranging from the earliest days of the silent era to the present time. I have utilised anecdotes and comments from scores of biographies (authorised and unauthorised), as well as Internet sources, magazine articles, interviews and TV appearances. If, like me, you are fascinated by the world of movies, particularly the days of the studio system, I think you shall find more than enough items here to satisfy your curiosity. I am currently researching a second volume along similar lines. For elderly readers I should point out that there is a considerable amount of ‘bad language’ herein, simply because I quote actors and actresses verbatim. For many of them (even the so-called ‘greats’), peppering their reminiscences with expletives is commonplace. I make no apology for this, however, for I think it is important to present these individuals as they really were, minus the studio hype that tended to elevate them to the status of flawless gods and godesses. Very few lived up to their glowing reputations, I’m afraid. Having said that, I believe that the temptations ever present for these men and women who were suddenly faced with enormous wealth and universal adoration, would test the resolve of most of us, saints and all. And saints have always been few and far between in Tinsel Town. When I published my first book (Hollywood Warts ‘n’ All Volume 1) in 2005, I was accused of ‘muck-raking’, of tarnishing the reputations of deceased stars who could no longer defend themselves. I still get the occasional brickbat along those lines even today, but times have changed. Over the past 20 years or so, hundreds of books have been published about the ‘good old days’ of the studio system; not only stars’ biographies, but accounts from a diverse range of previously unheard from sources. Maids, bodyguards, chauffeurs, secretaries, bell-hops, agents, family members and acquaintances of the rich and famous etc, now put their memories into print, confirming much of what I have been writing about for almost a decade and a half. Of course, there are still those who rail against anyone who deigns to question the ‘snow-jobs’ churned out by studio publicity departments down the decades; the standard complaint being the usual one – the dead cannot defend themselves. Well, there have been more books written about Napoleon Bonaparte and Hitler than most anyone else, yet no-one complains of either man being unable to defend himself. So, again I make no apolgies for anything included in this publication, unless the reader comes across an unforseen error I may have accidentally overlooked, in which case I apologise unreservedly.

    Sgt. Charles Black is a 35 year veteran of the Iowa State Patrol during those years he has had many experiences and he shares his favorites in this book. In 35 years I have seen a lot of changes from the name of the organization to the primary function. From hearses to ambulances to rescue units with EMT's. From paper list of stolen cars to computers.From no recorders to body cameras. From fist fights to gun fights.But human nature and the effects of drugs and alcohol remain the same.