In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Sometimes, the unscrupulous deliberately try to mislead us. Other times, the well-intentioned are blissfully unaware of the mischief they are committing. Today, data is so plentiful that researchers spend precious little time distinguishing between good, meaningful indicators and total rubbish. Not only do others use data to fool us, we fool ourselves.With the breakout success of Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise, the once humdrum subject of statistics has never been hotter. Drawing on breakthrough research in behavioral economics by luminaries like Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely and taking to task some of the conclusions of Freakonomics author Steven D. Levitt, Standard Deviations demystifies the science behind statistics and makes it easy to spot the fraud all around.

    Hand argues that extraordinarily rare events are anything but. In fact, they’re commonplace. Not only that, we should all expect to experience a miracle roughly once every month.     But Hand is no believer in superstitions, prophecies, or the paranormal. His definition of “miracle” is thoroughly rational. No mystical or supernatural explanation is necessary to understand why someone is lucky enough to win the lottery twice, or is destined to be hit by lightning three times and still survive. All we need, Hand argues, is a firm grounding in a powerful set of laws: the laws of inevitability, of truly large numbers, of selection, of the probability lever, and of near enough.     Together, these constitute Hand’s groundbreaking Improbability Principle. And together, they explain why we should not be so surprised to bump into a friend in a foreign country, or to come across the same unfamiliar word four times in one day. Hand wrestles with seemingly less explicable questions as well: what the Bible and Shakespeare have in common, why financial crashes are par for the course, and why lightning does strike the same place (and the same person) twice. Along the way, he teaches us how to use the Improbability Principle in our own lives—including how to cash in at a casino and how to recognize when a medicine is truly effective.     An irresistible adventure into the laws behind “chance” moments and a trusty guide for understanding the world and universe we live in, The Improbability Principle will transform how you think about serendipity and luck, whether it’s in the world of business and finance or you’re merely sitting in your backyard, tossing a ball into the air and wondering where it will land.

    

    Reveals mathematics' great power as an alternative language for understanding things and explores such concepts as logic as a computing tool, digital versus analog processes and communication as information transmission.

    This book reveals how anyone can begin to visualize the enigmatic 'imaginary numbers' that first baffled mathematicians in the 16th century.

    Big and informative, "The New York Times Book of Mathematics" gathers more than 110 articles written from 1892 to 2010 that cover statistics, coincidences, chaos theory, famous problems, cryptography, computers, and many other topics. Edited by Pulitzer Prize finalist and senior "Times" writer Gina Kolata, and featuring renowned contributors such as James Gleick, William L. Laurence, Malcolm W. Browne, George Johnson, and John Markoff, it's a must-have for any math and science enthusiast!

    Worked examples and exercises support the text. An ELBS/LPBB edition is available.

    As teen math prodigy Agnijo Banerjee and his teacher David Darling reveal, complex math surrounds us. If we think long enough about the universe, we're left not with material stuff, but a ghostly and beautiful set of equations. Packed with puzzles and paradoxes, mind-bending concepts, and surprising solutions, Weird Math leads us from a lyrical exploration of mathematics in our universe to profound questions about God, chance, and infinity. A magical introduction to the mysteries of math, it will entrance beginners and seasoned mathematicians alike.

    

    This book provides a modern introduction to the main principles that are foundational to thermal physics, thermodynamics and statistical mechanics. The key concepts are carefully presented in a clear way, and new ideas are illustrated with copious worked examples as well as a description of the historical background to their discovery. Applications are presented to subjects as diverse as stellar astrophysics, information and communication theory, condensed matter physics and climate change. Each chapter concludes with detailed exercises.

    Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today's model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work.The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation.By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling.Web ResourceThe book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author's website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

    The aim of the series is to give readers accessible and informative introductions to some of the most popular, most acclaimed and most influential novels of recent years - from ‘The Remains of the Day' to ‘White Teeth'. A team of contemporary fiction scholars from both sides of the Atlantic has been assembled to provide a thorough and readable analysis of each of the novels in question.

    Linear algebra is tightly integrated into the text.

      “An unexpectedly intimate look into a highly accomplished man, his colleagues and friends, the development of a new field of geometric analysis, and a glimpse into a truly uncommon mind.”—Nina MacLaughlin, Boston Globe “Engaging, eminently readable . . . For those with a taste for elegant and largely jargon-free explanations of mathematics, The Shape of a Life promises hours of rewarding reading.”—Judith Goodstein, American Scientist  Harvard geometer and Fields medalist Shing-Tung Yau has provided a mathematical foundation for string theory, offered new insights into black holes, and mathematically demonstrated the stability of our universe. In this autobiography, Yau reflects on his improbable journey to becoming one of the world’s most distinguished mathematicians. Beginning with an impoverished childhood in China and Hong Kong, Yau takes readers through his doctoral studies at Berkeley during the height of the Vietnam War protests, his Fields Medal–winning proof of the Calabi conjecture, his return to China, and his pioneering work in geometric analysis. This new branch of geometry, which Yau built up with his friends and colleagues, has paved the way for solutions to several important and previously intransigent problems. With complicated ideas explained for a broad audience, this book offers readers not only insights into the life of an eminent mathematician, but also an accessible way to understand advanced and highly abstract concepts in mathematics and theoretical physics.

     Learn the essential concepts using concrete analogies and vivid diagrams, not mechanical definitions. Calculus isn't a set of rules, it's a specific, practical viewpoint we can apply to everyday thinking. Frustrated With Abstract, Mechanical Lessons? I was too. Despite years of classes, I didn't have a strong understanding of calculus concepts. Sure, I could follow mechanical steps, but I had no lasting intuition. The classes I've seen are too long, taught in the wrong order, and without solid visualizations. Here's how this course is different: 1) It gets to the point. A typical class plods along, saving concepts like Integrals until Week 8. I want to see what calculus can offer by Minute 8. Each compact, tightly-written lesson can be read in 15 minutes. 2) Concepts are taught in their natural order. Most classes begin with the theory of limits, a technical concept discovered 150 years after calculus was invented. That's like putting a new driver into a Formula-1 racecar on day 1. We can begin with the easy-to-grasp concepts discovered 2000 years ago. 3) It has vivid analogies and visualizations. Calculus is usually defined as the "study of change"... which sounds like history or geology. Instead of an abstract definition, we'll see calculus a step-by-step viewpoint to explore patterns. 4) It's written by a human, for humans. I'm not a haughty professor or strict schoolmarm. I'm a friend who saw a fun way to internalize some difficult ideas. This course is a chat over coffee, not a keep-your-butt-in-your-seat lecture. The goal is to help you grasp the Aha! moments behind calculus in hours, not a painful semester (or a decade, in my case). Join Thousands Of Happy Readers Here's a few samples of anonymous feedback as people went through the course. The material covers a variety of levels, whether you're looking for intuitive appreciation or the specifics of the rules. "I've done all of this stuff before, and I do understand calculus intuitively, but this was the most fun I've had going through this kind of thing. The informal writing and multitude of great analogies really helps this become an enjoyable read and the rest is simple after that - you make this seem easy, but at the same time, you aren't doing it for us…This is what math education is supposed to be like :)" "I have psychology and medicine background so I relate your ideas to my world. To me the most useful idea was what each circle production feels like. Rings are natural growth…Slices are automatable chunks and automation cheapens production… Boards in the shape on an Arch are psychologically most palatable for work (wind up, hard part, home stretch). Brilliant and kudos, from one INTP to another." "I like how you're introducing both derivatives and integrals at the same time - it's really helps with understanding the relationship between them. Also, I appreciate how you're coming from such a different angle than is traditionally taken - it's always interesting to see where you decide to go next." "That was breathtaking. Seriously, mail my air back please, I've grown used to it. Beautiful work, thank you. Lesson 15 was masterful. I am starting to feel calculus. "d/dx is good" (sorry, couldn't resist!)."