Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    This book was originally written by third-year medical students searching for the perfect review book--not finding it on the market, they wrote it themselves! Now in its third edition, Step-Up to Medicine boils down the full scope of tested pathology in a single ingenious tool. Each element is tailored for immediate content absorption, and an all-new, full-color interior differentiate elements for even faster, more efficient review. And, Step-Up to Medicine , third edition provides two types of self-assessment--the kinds of questions you will ask yourself as a clinician plus USMLE-style practice questions. This review book gives you just the Step-Up to the medicine clerkship, accompanying shelf exams, and USMLE Step 2 that you need! NEW Features for this blockbuster edition: Full-color, updated interior design brings the content to you in a rousing, memorable style. Full-color, updated art program illustrates concepts when a picture says it best--plenty of clinical images also supplement topics. New content on evidence-based medicine keeps you current and informed to guide your clinical decision making. Expanded content on drug dosing is added where relevant.CLASSIC Features students swear by: Complete coverage of high-yield medical topics ensures you are test ready Clinical Pearls boxes help you "file away" clinical medicine connections for handy retrieval at test time Quick Hits glimmering in the margins highlight highly testable material--just see how the sparks fly at test timeBONUS Material and study resources: eBook with the fully searchable text is available via thePoint . NEW 300 USMLE-style questions provide another means of self-assessment and practice for those exams NEW Audio clips of breath and heart sounds also available on thePoint

    A book to help everyone affected by disease of the gallbladder or bile ducts.If you are having gallbladder problems, whether you have already lost it or not, this book tells you what to do. Gallbladder disease can be painful and frightening, which explains why many people are rushed off to surgery to have their gallbladder removed. Is this the best thing to do? Are we panicking? These decisions are complex and serious and thus it takes an expert in liver and gallbladder problems like Dr Sandra Cabot to help you make sense of it.Your gallbladder is precious and supports optimal digestion and absorption of nutrients and some people have complications after surgery, some people still have the same pain after surgery some people never feel well after having their gallbladder removed.Thankfully, Dr Cabot has written this book to help you and your doctor make the best decisions.In most cases there are safe natural alternatives that can help you to save your gallbladder, dissolve stones and restore healthy gallbladder and liver function.In this book you will find the following information:Types of gallbladder disorders covered in this bookRisk factors for gallbladder diseaseSymptoms of gallbladder dysfunctionSymptoms of a gallbladder attackThe natural treatment of gallstonesThe seven essential strategies for treating gallbladder disease1. Keep the bile fluid and keep it moving - ie. prevent bile stasis and bile sludge2. The best foods and herbs for the gallbladderRaw vegetable juice for the gallbladderGreen goodness soup for the gallbladderRaw beetroot salad for the gallbladder3. Keep your bowel moving and avoid constipation4. Take the right nutrients necessary for healthy bile5. Reduce cholesterol6. Avoid problem foods and fix your digestionCoeliac disease and gallstonesFood allergies and gallstones7. Eat the right fatsFirst aid remedies for easing the pain of a gallbladder attackTo flush or not to flush: when is it safe and appropriate to do a gallbladder flush?Safe and effective gallbladder flushGallbladder remedies cheat sheetsummary of the most important pointsBasic structure and function of the gallbladderWhat goes wrong - why do gallstones form?Thick and stagnant bile - a recipe for stone formationDiagnosis of gallbladder diseaseBlood testsWhat if it’s not your gallbladder after all?The conventional medical treatment of gallstonesNon-surgical medical treatments for gallstonesSometimes it has to go!Signs and symptoms that indicate your gallbladder should come outOther conditions affecting the gallbladder or bile ducts.95Gallbladder conditions during pregnancyHow to live well without a gallbladderStrategies for maintaining good health without a gallbladderRecipes and Food IdeasSuper Quick Shopping Listwww.sandracabot.comwww.liverdoctor.comwww.cabothealth.com.au

    Written with Barnard’s cooperation and with input from dozens of associates, drivers and rivals, this biography tells the entire story, both personal and professional, of a British design genius. Barnard’s technical achievements are explored in detail — and in accessible language — with special emphasis on his brilliant initiatives while at McLaren (the first carbon-fibre composite chassis) and Ferrari (the first semi-automatic gearbox). The Perfect Car is also a human-interest story, telling a tale of innovation under intense pressure while Barnard endeavoured to maintain a stable family life. This is a landmark book that will be relished by anyone interested in motorsport and design.

    He was eager to begin his first practice, but it turned out to be more than he bargained for. In just two years, in September, 1918, the entire village was sickened in rapid succession in the flu pandemic that killed quickly and indiscriminately throughout the world. It was wartime, and Nixon was unable to find help., This story is an up close and personal account of what it was like to be sick with the HINI type virus in 1918. It is a tale of a dedicated doctor whose selflessness, compassion and courage helped the villagers survive in the pandemic that killed more people in a year than the Black Death killed in a century...

    This book provides the first complete identification guides to the birds of this teeming tropical paradise. It gives descriptions of 820 regional species, illustrated in 88 specially commissioned color plates accompanied by notes detailing distinctive features and habitats. Entries cover nomenclature, plumage, markings, voice, global range, distribution and regional status, habits, and diet. The main text gives practical information on where to find many exotic species, citing major birdwatching locations. Introductory chapters discuss habitats, climate, land-use, and conservation concerns. Professional ornithologists and amateur bird watchers alike will find this the indispensable bird guide for eastern Malaysia and western Indonesia for many years to come. It is also an unrivalled source of information for casual travellers and ecotourists.

    Craig Canapari became a father, he realized that all his years of 36-hour hospital shifts didn't even come close to preparing him for the sleep deprivation that comes with parenthood. The difference is that parents don’t get a break—it’s hard to know if there’s a night of uninterrupted sleep anywhere in the foreseeable future. Sleepless nights for kids mean sleepless nights for the rest of the family—and a grumpy group around the breakfast table in the morning.   In It's Never Too Late to Sleep Train, Canapari helps parents harness the power of habit to chart a clear path to high-quality sleep for their children. The result is a streamlined two-step sleep training plan that focuses on cues and consequences, the two elements that shape all habits and that take on special importance when it comes to kids’ bedtime routines.   Dr. Canapari distills years of clinical research and experience to make sleep training simple and stress-free. Even if you’ve been told that you’ve missed the optimal "window" for sleep training, Dr. Canapari is here to prove that it's never too late, whether your child is 6 months or 6 years old. He's on your side in the battle against bedtime, and with his advice, parents and children alike can expect a lifetime of healthy sleep.

    Cohen show us that the antidote to our ever-growing rates of obesity and chronic diseases, such as heart disease and diabetes, lies not in our medical care system or in more health education but rather in how our environment affects our behavior.

    Furthermore, the current epidemic of chronic illness demands a new care standard that can break down the existing structural barriers to full resolution. It requires functional medicine. The Evolution of Medicine provides step-by-step instruction for building a successful "community micropractice," one that engages both the patient and practitioner in a therapeutic partnership focused on the body as a whole rather than isolated symptoms. This invaluable handbook will awaken health professionals to exciting new career possibilities. At the same time, it will alleviate the fear of abandoning a conventional medical system that is bad for doctors, patients, and payers, as well as being ineffectual in the treatment of chronic ailments. Welcome to a new world of modern medical care, delivered in a community setting. It's time to embrace the Evolution of Medicine and reignite your love for the art of healing.

    Thanks to the astonishing results it provides--glowing skin, a flatter stomach, enhanced immunity, and full-body detox--the practice of manually stimulating the lymphatic system has become one of the most popular wellness practices today. Lymphatic drainage works because the lymphatic system--a complex geography of rivers that snake throughout the body just beneath the surface of the skin--connects every other bodily system. When lymph flows, everything else flows, too.In this first-of-its-kind guide, veteran lymphatic drainage practitioner, educator, and advocate Lisa Levitt Gainsley explains how to maintain lymphatic health, sharing the five-minute self-massage techniques she originally developed for her high-powered Los Angeles clientele. These simple sequences are tailored to address a number of specific and common issues: bloating, headaches, digestive problems, immune health, anxiety, weight loss, acne, inflammation, and more.Whether you just want to look and feel your best or are facing a more serious health issue such as cancer treatment or recovery, The Book of Lymph offers educational and practical instruction to help you cultivate a body free of pain and lethargy, activate a calmer state of being, and boost overall glow--in just five minutes a day.

    In 1895 her great-great aunt, Pauline Gross, a seamstress in Ann Arbor, Michigan, confided to a pathology professor at the local university that she expected to die young, like so many others in her family. Rather than dismiss her fears, the pathologist chose to enlist Pauline in the careful tracking of those in her family tree who had died of cancer. Pauline's premonition proved true--she died at 46--but because of her efforts, her family (who the pathologist dubbed 'Family G') would become the longest and most detailed cancer genealogy ever studied in the world. A century after Pauline's confession, researchers would identify the genetic mutation responsible for the family's woes. Now known as Lynch syndrome, the genetic condition predisposes its carriers to several types of cancer, including colorectal, endometrial, ovarian and pancreatic. In 2001, as a young mother with two sons and a keen interest in survival, Ami McKay was among the first to be tested for Lynch syndrome. She had a feeling she'd test positive: her mother's side of the family was riddled with early deaths and her own mother was being treated for the disease. When the test proved her fears true, she began living in "an unsettling state between wellness and cancer," and she's been there ever since. Intimate, candid, and probing, her genetic memoir tells a fascinating story, teasing out the many ways to live with the hand you are dealt.

    Flight Attendant Memoir is an intriguing, inside view of the not-so-friendly skies seen through the eyes of former flight attendant, Margo Anderson; if you are a frequent flier or plan to fly in the near future, fasten your seat belts for a turbulent read!

    By drawing from a decade of experience as a techie, he has created a concise and practical book 'How to Write Effective Emails at Work' You’ll learn: - three important aspects of an email - four situations when we should not write - five tools to get attention - how to smartly respond to emails - the most important benefit of an email - how to get more work done using emails Learn the Six Keys and take your email writing skills to the next level. Pick up a copy of this book and enjoy this quick read.

    Just the right amount of science. Common sense and rational.” -- Wayne R. The greenhouse effect is always quoted—but that is a METAPHOR. What is the fundamental physical process that drives it? And how exactly does human activity play such a powerful role with it? How did we go from worrying about global warming to climate change…to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions? "Great book - should me mandatory reading for anyone that uses the term 'Climate Change' " - Amazon purchaser Macsugar Are there gases more powerful and influential in the greenhouse effect than CO2? Yes, by a lot! As you will learn in this book… Why aren’t we spending more time, money, and attention focusing on those? Smart people want to get to the point of a problem and solve it as quickly, inexpensively, and effortlessly as possible. They know about the Pareto Principle, and you will too after you read this book. It is also called the 80/20 rule. What happens when we apply that principle to the global climate change “consensus”? “Thank You! I always thought the numbers were small, but I never took the time to do the math.” -- Mike S. There are many books that are long, technical, and—frankly, irrelevant—on the topic of climate change. Here are the most important questions that nobody has bothered to answer in straightforward, simple and short language, until now: * What are basic facts about our planet’s atmosphere? And what do they tell us about the fundamental physics of climate change? * What are the basic physics and assumptions behind the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis or belief? Are they valid? * What element or compound is the single greatest factor in temperature control in our atmosphere? Hint—it isn’t carbon dioxide. How does carbon dioxide compare with this other chemical? "Takes less than an hour to read... A must-read for every official policy-maker at every level... This deserves 6 stars out of 5!" -- Terry Dunleavy (Amazon reviewer) “Brilliant, what a refreshing approach.” -- Christopher K. Before we spend more time, money, and emotional energy on the presumed EFFECTS and CONSEQUENCES of global warming and climate change (things like rising temperatures, rising sea levels, etc., etc.), shouldn’t we all have a BASIC UNDERSTANDING of the FUNDAMENTAL PROCESSES AND PHYSICS of our planet’s atmosphere? If you have any questions, or doubts about that, this book is for you. “Very good. I am a geophysicist.” -- Ben B. Even better, you’ll learn (or re-learn) a very simple and indisputable fact about our atmosphere that makes the entire controversy look ridiculous. Use this information as a test (or a bet) the next time you talk with someone on the “other side” of the climate change debate. “A very useful contribution to bringing sanity and reason back to the analysis of AGW.” – Tom P. The climate change threat is consuming more of our precious time, energy, and resources. So is the debate about what to do about it. Don’t allow yourself be a part of the problem—get this book so that you can be a part of the solution! If you are convinced that AGW is the biggest threat facing our planet, this book has facts and

    It was a New York Times best seller for over eight years. These blinks explain how society raises people to conform to a strict set of rules and how, with a little effort and commitment, you can set your own guidelines for life. PLEASE NOTE: This is a summary and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Our summaries aim to teach you important lessons in a time-efficient and cost-effective manner. They are coherent, concise, and comprehensive, highlighting the main ideas and concepts found in the original books. Unessential information is removed to save the reader hours of reading time. Save time and money while completing your reading list.