Essentially, you are estimating a probability, but then updating that estimate based on other things that you know. This book is designed to give you an intuitive understanding of how to use Bayes Theorem. It starts with the definition of what Bayes Theorem is, but the focus of the book is on providing examples that you can follow and duplicate. Most of the examples are calculated in Excel, which is useful for updating probability if you have dozens or hundreds of data points to roll in.

    Titles in the set are I Am Number Four, The Power of Six, The Rise of Nine, The Fall of Five, The Revenge of Seven.

    He was called White Buffalo, and he would be the greatest medicine man the People had ever known.  The spirit of the ancient gods beat in him like a savage drum--a mystical power as old as the land, as primeval as primitive man himself.  But even as he fought to lead his people out of the darkness of the Stone Age, his world trembled on the brink of a great and terrible transformation.  It would be a century swept by the inevitable winds of change; a time when ignorant, evil men like the warrior Gray Wolf of the Head-Splitters would seek bloody vengeance, and when once man would fight against all odds to save his tribe and his heritage from brutal destruction.

    Fleeing from pirates, Robinson Crusoe is swept ashore in a storm possessing only a knife, a box of tobacco, a pipe-and the will to survive. His is the saga of a man alone: a man who overcomes self-pity and despair to reconstruct his life; who painstakingly teaches himself how to fashion a pot, bake bread, build a canoe; and who, after twenty-four agonizing years of solitude, discovers a human footprint in the sand... Consistently popular since its first publication in 1719, Daniel Defoe's story of human endurance in an exotic, faraway land exerts a timeless appeal.

    But Gregor Muir knew them at the start; his unique memoir chronicles the birth of Young British Art. Muir, YBA’s ‘embedded journalist’, happened to be in Shoreditch and Hoxton before Jay Jopling arrived with his White Cube Gallery, when this was still a semi-derelict landscape of grotty pubs and squats. There he witnessed, amid a whirl of drunkenness, scrapes and riotous hedonism, the coming-together of a remarkable array of young artists – Hirst, the Chapman brothers, Rachel Whiteread, Sam Taylor-Wood, Angus Fairhurst - who went on to produce a fresh, irreverent, often notorious form of art - Hirst’s shark, Sarah Lucas’s two fried eggs and a kebab. By the time of the seminal Sensation show at the Royal Academy YBA had changed the art world for ever.

    

    

    A traumatic delivery sends her into a coma, stranding her in a realm between the living and the dead. The sinister spirit of George Callahan is waiting for her there, prepared to capture her soul and use it to finally fulfill his revenge in the generations-long feud between the Fontenots and Callahans.Cade Beauregard is heartbroken, but determined to save his wife from eternal enslavement, even if he must confront his own horrors and employ the despised dark arts of voodoo to set her free.Trevor Callahan knows his father is up to no good, and he’s certain it involves the woman he still loves. He resolves to do whatever it takes to protect Caroline from Kenneth Callahan’s schemes against her family. While New Orleans celebrates Mardi Gras, Caroline, Cade, and Trevor work together to stop the threats once and for all. But with George attacking from the spiritual realm, and vengeful kin with ties to the mafia plotting deadly retaliation in the physical, will rescuing Caroline’s soul be enough? Can they ever break free of the demons in their families’ pasts and find happiness together?

    The nights are dark, the days a stumbling venture from one horror to the next. In one place, William Hill stands in the center of a town where the scattered remains of the dead lie next to the road like litter tossed from passing cars, where the search for the living fails to turn up even one soul. Infected by a parasite destined to steal his mind, hunted by the Chosen, and dogged by a beautiful woman who claims to be an elf, he sometimes wonders if life can get any stranger. Then Daniel offers a glimpse of the coming world, a place where cavorting beasts feast upon the dead, where dragons haunt nearby forests, where the hordes crawl from the ground by the millions and sweep across the earth. The elf says she needs his blood to repair the rift between worlds, to finally put an end to the madness. He doesn't mind donating a little to the cause, but the more he hears, the more he doubts her intentions and the more the ceremony sounds like a full-scale sacrifice. In the end, William discovers that he can count on nothing, not even his sanity.

    Tom had worked towards it, but when the newest member of his Hearth was threatened, things took a different turn. With his Hearth and those he trusted, Tom set out on a journey, an adventure, to find the fields of salt and the place of Canee’s dreams, an Eden. The journey took them to places where they made new friends and staved off many animal attacks. Then they found what everyone thought of as an Eden, an idyllic place that had all they wanted, and they set about settling. Then the winter came and with it some strangers, some of whom were anything but welcome.

    

    Discovering that Rachel, a sports journalist, had been doing a story on the brutal killing of a foreign tourist, they are puzzled by her interest in such a grisly crime. It emerges that Rachel’s investigation went far beyond a single murder, and their lives are soon under threat too.With a traumatic event from their teenage years coming back to haunt them, the trio realises that the mystery has its roots in their own past. In the midst of battling their personal demons, they make a desperate plan to flush out a sadistic killer in the sylvan setting of their old boarding school in the Himalayan foothills. With the body count rising and long-buried secrets tumbling out, will they succeed?

    Luckily for us he had an incredible memory and one his daughters wrote down those stories.

    

    1 bestselling Paranormal Ghost Story, The House on Poultney Road. 106 Poultney Road should have felt empty after the death of her husband Richard, but Ellen was far from living alone. Questioning whether or not she should move from a house that she believed her late husband's spirit could be trapped inside, she must face a few demons of her own. Who was the man in black? And why did he haunt her family? ***** Yvonne and Eric found their dream home in Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire months before their second daughter, Stephanie was due to be born. What they did not know was that they were taking on a house with a dark history of its own and that their daughter would be drawn into the depths of the nightmares that resided there. ***** Sometimes a soul can rest, another time it lingers between the living and the dead and it's when these two worlds collide that hauntings can have a traumatic effect on a family. Some people look for answers, they try to find a path in life to connect with the dead, but sometimes, through no choice of their own, the dead comes looking for them. IT FOUND ME