Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.

    However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice-freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You'll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you've mastered these techniques, you'll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes - Learning the Bayesian "state of mind" and its practical implications - Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference - Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses - Building and debugging models with PyMC - Testing your model's "goodness of fit" - Opening the "black box" of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works - Leveraging the power of the "Law of Large Numbers" - Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning - Using loss functions to measure an estimate's weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes - Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size - Overcoming the "exploration versus exploitation" dilemma: deciding when "pretty good" is good enough - Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing - Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.

    You'll learn how to combine small, yet powerful, command-line tools to quickly obtain, scrub, explore, and model your data.To get you started--whether you're on Windows, OS X, or Linux--author Jeroen Janssens introduces the Data Science Toolbox, an easy-to-install virtual environment packed with over 80 command-line tools.Discover why the command line is an agile, scalable, and extensible technology. Even if you're already comfortable processing data with, say, Python or R, you'll greatly improve your data science workflow by also leveraging the power of the command line.Obtain data from websites, APIs, databases, and spreadsheetsPerform scrub operations on plain text, CSV, HTML/XML, and JSONExplore data, compute descriptive statistics, and create visualizationsManage your data science workflow using DrakeCreate reusable tools from one-liners and existing Python or R codeParallelize and distribute data-intensive pipelines using GNU ParallelModel data with dimensionality reduction, clustering, regression, and classification algorithms

    And how to move all of this data becomes nearly as important as the data itself. If you� re an application architect, developer, or production engineer new to Apache Kafka, this practical guide shows you how to use this open source streaming platform to handle real-time data feeds.Engineers from Confluent and LinkedIn who are responsible for developing Kafka explain how to deploy production Kafka clusters, write reliable event-driven microservices, and build scalable stream-processing applications with this platform. Through detailed examples, you� ll learn Kafka� s design principles, reliability guarantees, key APIs, and architecture details, including the replication protocol, the controller, and the storage layer.Understand publish-subscribe messaging and how it fits in the big data ecosystem.Explore Kafka producers and consumers for writing and reading messagesUnderstand Kafka patterns and use-case requirements to ensure reliable data deliveryGet best practices for building data pipelines and applications with KafkaManage Kafka in production, and learn to perform monitoring, tuning, and maintenance tasksLearn the most critical metrics among Kafka� s operational measurementsExplore how Kafka� s stream delivery capabilities make it a perfect source for stream processing systems

    

    This updated edition includes all the changes in Python 3, itself a significant shift from earlier versions of Python.The book begins with basic but useful programs that teach the core features of syntax, control flow, and data structures. It then moves to larger applications involving code management, object-oriented programming, web development, and converting code from earlier versions of Python.True to his audience of experienced developers, the author covers common programming language features concisely, while giving more detail to those features unique to Python.Purchase of the print book comes with an offer of a free PDF, ePub, and Kindle eBook from Manning. Also available is all code from the book.

    Politicians and marketers present shoddy evidence for dubious claims all the time. But smart people make mistakes too, and when it comes to statistics, plenty of otherwise great scientists--yes, even those published in peer-reviewed journals--are doing statistics wrong."Statistics Done Wrong" comes to the rescue with cautionary tales of all-too-common statistical fallacies. It'll help you see where and why researchers often go wrong and teach you the best practices for avoiding their mistakes.In this book, you'll learn: - Why "statistically significant" doesn't necessarily imply practical significance- Ideas behind hypothesis testing and regression analysis, and common misinterpretations of those ideas- How and how not to ask questions, design experiments, and work with data- Why many studies have too little data to detect what they're looking for-and, surprisingly, why this means published results are often overestimates- Why false positives are much more common than "significant at the 5% level" would suggestBy walking through colorful examples of statistics gone awry, the book offers approachable lessons on proper methodology, and each chapter ends with pro tips for practicing scientists and statisticians. No matter what your level of experience, "Statistics Done Wrong" will teach you how to be a better analyst, data scientist, or researcher.

    His goal was to help shift the focus in Japanese education from memorization to critical thinking, by adapting some of the techniques he had learned as an elite McKinsey consultant.He was amazed to discover that adults were hungry for his fun and easy guide to problem solving and decision making. The book became a surprise Japanese bestseller, with more than 370,000 in print after six months. Now American businesspeople can also use it to master some powerful skills.Watanabe uses sample scenarios to illustrate his techniques, which include logic trees and matrixes. A rock band figures out how to drive up concert attendance. An aspiring animator budgets for a new computer purchase. Students decide which high school they will attend.Illustrated with diagrams and quirky drawings, the book is simple enough for a middleschooler to understand but sophisticated enough for business leaders to apply to their most challenging problems.

    Full of insights, arguments and philosophical perspectives, the book covers an amazing array of topics. Beginning in antiquity with Democritus, it progresses through logic and set theory, computability and complexity theory, quantum computing, cryptography, the information content of quantum states and the interpretation of quantum mechanics. There are also extended discussions about time travel, Newcomb's Paradox, the anthropic principle and the views of Roger Penrose. Aaronson's informal style makes this fascinating book accessible to readers with scientific backgrounds, as well as students and researchers working in physics, computer science, mathematics and philosophy.

    With this comprehensive guide, Mr. Spreadsheet shows you how to maximize your Excel experience using professional spreadsheet application development tips from his own personal bookshelf.Featuring a complete introduction to Visual Basic for Applications and fully updated for the new features of Excel 2010, this essential reference includes an analysis of Excel application development and is packed with procedures, tips, and ideas for expanding Excel's capabilities with VBA.Offers an analysis of Excel application development and a complete introduction to Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) Features invaluable advice from Mr. Spreadsheet himself (bestselling author John Walkenbach), who demonstrates all the techniques you need to create large and small Excel applications Provides tips, tricks, and techniques for expanding Excel's capabilities with VBA that you won't find anywhere else Includes a CD with templates and worksheets from the book This power-user's guide is packed with procedures, tips, and ideas for expanding Excel's capabilities with VBA. Note: CD-ROM/DVD and other supplementary materials are not included as part of eBook file.

    As scale and demand increase, so does Complexity. Fortunately, scalability and simplicity are not mutually exclusive—rather than using some trendy technology, a different approach is needed. Big data systems use many machines working in parallel to store and process data, which introduces fundamental challenges unfamiliar to most developers.Big Data shows how to build these systems using an architecture that takes advantage of clustered hardware along with new tools designed specifically to capture and analyze web-scale data. It describes a scalable, easy to understand approach to big data systems that can be built and run by a small team. Following a realistic example, this book guides readers through the theory of big data systems, how to use them in practice, and how to deploy and operate them once they're built.Purchase of the print book comes with an offer of a free PDF, ePub, and Kindle eBook from Manning. Also available is all code from the book.

    Now he's sharing his collection of antipatterns--the most common errors he's identified in those thousands of requests for help. Most developers aren't SQL experts, and most of the SQL that gets used is inefficient, hard to maintain, and sometimes just plain wrong. This book shows you all the common mistakes, and then leads you through the best fixes. What's more, it shows you what's behind these fixes, so you'll learn a lot about relational databases along the way. Each chapter in this book helps you identify, explain, and correct a unique and dangerous antipattern. The four parts of the book group the anti​patterns in terms of logical database design, physical database design, queries, and application development. The chances are good that your application's database layer already contains problems such as Index Shotgun, Keyless Entry, Fear of the Unknown, and Spaghetti Query. This book will help you and your team find them. Even better, it will also show you how to fix them, and how to avoid these and other problems in the future. SQL Antipatterns gives you a rare glimpse into an SQL expert's playbook. Now you can stamp out these common database errors once and for all. Whatever platform or programming language you use, whether you're a junior programmer or a Ph.D., SQL Antipatterns will show you how to design and build databases, how to write better database queries, and how to integrate SQL programming with your application like an expert. You'll also learn the best and most current technology for full-text search, how to design code that is resistant to SQL injection attacks, and other techniques for success.

    Its popularity among open-source developers makes Git a necessary tool for professional programmers, but it can also do wonders for your personal coding workflow. You’ll be able to experiment with new ideas, radically refactor existing code, and efficiently share changes with other developers—all without the slightest worry towards breaking your project.This comprehensive guide will walk you through the entire Git library, writing code and executing commands every step of the way. You'll create commits, revert snapshots, navigate branches, communicate with remote repositories, and experience core Git concepts first-hand.Designed for newcomers to distributed development, Ry's Git Tutorial presents this complex subject in simple terms that anyone can understand. Beginner and veteran programmers alike will find this book to be a fun, fast, and friendly introduction to Git-based revision control.

    The R language provides everything you need to do statistical work, but its structure can be difficult to master. This collection of concise, task-oriented recipes makes you productive with R immediately, with solutions ranging from basic tasks to input and output, general statistics, graphics, and linear regression.Each recipe addresses a specific problem, with a discussion that explains the solution and offers insight into how it works. If you're a beginner, R Cookbook will help get you started. If you're an experienced data programmer, it will jog your memory and expand your horizons. You'll get the job done faster and learn more about R in the process.Create vectors, handle variables, and perform other basic functionsInput and output dataTackle data structures such as matrices, lists, factors, and data framesWork with probability, probability distributions, and random variablesCalculate statistics and confidence intervals, and perform statistical testsCreate a variety of graphic displaysBuild statistical models with linear regressions and analysis of variance (ANOVA)Explore advanced statistical techniques, such as finding clusters in your dataWonderfully readable, R Cookbook serves not only as a solutions manual of sorts, but as a truly enjoyable way to explore the R language--one practical example at a time.--Jeffrey Ryan, software consultant and R package author

    But few of us realize just how many oversights, biases, and downright ethical nightmares are baked inside the tech products we use every day. It’s time we change that.In Technically Wrong, Sara Wachter-Boettcher demystifies the tech industry, leaving those of us on the other side of the screen better prepared to make informed choices about the services we use—and to demand more from the companies behind them.