Bayesian statistics is taught in most first-year statistics classes across the nation, but there is one major problem that many students (and others who are interested in the theorem) face. The theorem is not intuitive for most people, and understanding how it works can be a challenge, especially because it is often taught without visual aids. In this guide, we unpack the various components of the theorem and provide a basic overview of how it works - and with illustrations to help. Three scenarios - the flu, breathalyzer tests, and peacekeeping - are used throughout the booklet to teach how problems involving Bayes Theorem can be approached and solved. Over 60 hand-drawn visuals are included throughout to help you work through each problem as you learn by example. The illustrations are simple, hand-drawn, and in black and white. For those interested, we have also included sections typically not found in other beginner guides to Bayes Rule. These include: A short tutorial on how to understand problem scenarios and find P(B), P(A), and P(B|A). For many people, knowing how to approach scenarios and break them apart can be daunting. In this booklet, we provide a quick step-by-step reference on how to confidently understand scenarios.A few examples of how to think like a Bayesian in everyday life. Bayes Rule might seem somewhat abstract, but it can be applied to many areas of life and help you make better decisions. It is a great tool that can help you with critical thinking, problem-solving, and dealing with the gray areas of life. A concise history of Bayes Rule. Bayes Theorem has a fascinating 200+ year history, and we have summed it up for you in this booklet. From its discovery in the 1700’s to its being used to break the German’s Enigma Code during World War 2, its tale is quite phenomenal.Fascinating real-life stories on how Bayes formula is used in everyday life.From search and rescue to spam filtering and driverless cars, Bayes is used in many areas of modern day life. We have summed up 3 examples for you and provided an example of how Bayes could be used.An expanded definitions, notations, and proof section.We have included an expanded definitions and notations sections at the end of the booklet. In this section we define core terms more concretely, and also cover additional terms you might be confused about. A recommended readings section.From The Theory That Would Not Die to a few other books, there are a number of recommendations we have for further reading. Take a look! If you are a visual learner and like to learn by example, this intuitive booklet might be a good fit for you. Bayesian statistics is an incredibly fascinating topic and likely touches your life every single day. It is a very important tool that is used in data analysis throughout a wide-range of industries - so take an easy dive into the theorem for yourself with a visual approach!If you are looking for a short beginners guide packed with visual examples, this booklet is for you.

    Kurt Giidel maintained, and offered detailed proof, that in any arithmetic system, even in elementary parts of arithmetic, there are propositions which cannot be proved or disproved within the system. It is thus uncertain that the basic axioms of arithmetic will not give rise to contradictions. The repercussions of this discovery are still being felt and debated in 20th-century mathematics.The present volume reprints the first English translation of Giidel's far-reaching work. Not only does it make the argument more intelligible, but the introduction contributed by Professor R. B. Braithwaite (Cambridge University}, an excellent work of scholarship in its own right, illuminates it by paraphrasing the major part of the argument.This Dover edition thus makes widely available a superb edition of a classic work of original thought, one that will be of profound interest to mathematicians, logicians and anyone interested in the history of attempts to establish axioms that would provide a rigorous basis for all mathematics. Translated by B. Meltzer, University of Edinburgh. Preface. Introduction by R. B. Braithwaite.

    Based on her work at the Santa Fe Institute and drawing on its interdisciplinary strategies, Mitchell brings clarity to the workings of complexity across a broad range of biological, technological, and social phenomena, seeking out the general principles or laws that apply to all of them. Richly illustrated, Complexity: A Guided Tour--winner of the 2010 Phi Beta Kappa Book Award in Science--offers a wide-ranging overview of the ideas underlying complex systems science, the current research at the forefront of this field, and the prospects for its contribution to solving some of the most important scientific questions of our time.

    With exceptional clarity, Franz n gives careful, non-technical explanations both of what those theorems say and, more importantly, what they do not. No other book aims, as his does, to address in detail the misunderstandings and abuses of the incompleteness theorems that are so rife in popular discussions of their significance. As an antidote to the many spurious appeals to incompleteness in theological, anti-mechanist and post-modernist debates, it is a valuable addition to the literature." --- John W. Dawson, author of "Logical Dilemmas: The Life and Work of Kurt G del

    The term “complexity” can be misleading, however, because what makes West’s discoveries so beautiful is that he has found an underlying simplicity that unites the seemingly complex and diverse phenomena of living systems, including our bodies, our cities and our businesses. Fascinated by issues of aging and mortality, West applied the rigor of a physicist to the biological question of why we live as long as we do and no longer. The result was astonishing, and changed science, creating a new understanding of energy use and metabolism: West found that despite the riotous diversity in the sizes of mammals, they are all, to a large degree, scaled versions of each other. If you know the size of a mammal, you can use scaling laws to learn everything from how much food it eats per day, what its heart-rate is, how long it will take to mature, its lifespan, and so on. Furthermore, the efficiency of the mammal’s circulatory systems scales up precisely based on weight: if you compare a mouse, a human and an elephant on a logarithmic graph, you find with every doubling of average weight, a species gets 25% more efficient—and lives 25% longer. This speaks to everything from how long we can expect to live to how many hours of sleep we need. Fundamentally, he has proven, the issue has to do with the fractal geometry of the networks that supply energy and remove waste from the organism's body. West's work has been game-changing for biologists, but then he made the even bolder move of exploring his work's applicability to cities. Cities, too, are constellations of networks and laws of scalability relate with eerie precision to them. For every doubling in a city's size, the city needs 15% less road, electrical wire, and gas stations to support the same population. More amazingly, for every doubling in size, cities produce 15% more patents and more wealth, as well as 15% more crime and disease. This broad pattern lays the groundwork for a new science of cities. Recently, West has applied his revolutionary work on cities and biological life to the business world. This investigation has led to powerful insights into why some companies thrive while others fail. The implications of these discoveries are far-reaching, and are just beginning to be explored. Scale is a thrilling scientific adventure story about the elemental natural laws that bind us together in simple but profound ways. Through the brilliant mind of Geoffrey West, we can envision how cities, companies and biological life alike are dancing to the same simple, powerful tune, however diverse and unrelated they are to each other.From the Hardcover edition.

    The field is ready for a text that not only demonstrates how to use the algorithms that make up machine learning methods, but also provides the background needed to understand how and why these algorithms work. Machine Learning: An Algorithmic Perspective is that text.Theory Backed up by Practical ExamplesThe book covers neural networks, graphical models, reinforcement learning, evolutionary algorithms, dimensionality reduction methods, and the important area of optimization. It treads the fine line between adequate academic rigor and overwhelming students with equations and mathematical concepts. The author addresses the topics in a practical way while providing complete information and references where other expositions can be found. He includes examples based on widely available datasets and practical and theoretical problems to test understanding and application of the material. The book describes algorithms with code examples backed up by a website that provides working implementations in Python. The author uses data from a variety of applications to demonstrate the methods and includes practical problems for students to solve.Highlights a Range of Disciplines and ApplicationsDrawing from computer science, statistics, mathematics, and engineering, the multidisciplinary nature of machine learning is underscored by its applicability to areas ranging from finance to biology and medicine to physics and chemistry. Written in an easily accessible style, this book bridges the gaps between disciplines, providing the ideal blend of theory and practical, applicable knowledge."

    Introductory Graph Theory presents a nontechnical introduction to this exciting field in a clear, lively, and informative style. Author Gary Chartrand covers the important elementary topics of graph theory and its applications. In addition, he presents a large variety of proofs designed to strengthen mathematical techniques and offers challenging opportunities to have fun with mathematics. Ten major topics — profusely illustrated — include: Mathematical Models, Elementary Concepts of Graph Theory, Transportation Problems, Connection Problems, Party Problems, Digraphs and Mathematical Models, Games and Puzzles, Graphs and Social Psychology, Planar Graphs and Coloring Problems, and Graphs and Other Mathematics. A useful Appendix covers Sets, Relations, Functions, and Proofs, and a section devoted to exercises — with answers, hints, and solutions — is especially valuable to anyone encountering graph theory for the first time. Undergraduate mathematics students at every level, puzzlists, and mathematical hobbyists will find well-organized coverage of the fundamentals of graph theory in this highly readable and thoroughly enjoyable book.

    This updated edition of Ross's classic bestseller provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes, and shows how probability theory can be applied to the study of phenomena in fields such as engineering, computer science, management science, the physical and social sciences, and operations research. With the addition of several new sections relating to actuaries, this text is highly recommended by the Society of Actuaries.This book now contains a new section on compound random variables that can be used to establish a recursive formula for computing probability mass functions for a variety of common compounding distributions; a new section on hiddden Markov chains, including the forward and backward approaches for computing the joint probability mass function of the signals, as well as the Viterbi algorithm for determining the most likely sequence of states; and a simplified approach for analyzing nonhomogeneous Poisson processes. There are also additional results on queues relating to the conditional distribution of the number found by an M/M/1 arrival who spends a time t in the system; inspection paradox for M/M/1 queues; and M/G/1 queue with server breakdown. Furthermore, the book includes new examples and exercises, along with compulsory material for new Exam 3 of the Society of Actuaries.This book is essential reading for professionals and students in actuarial science, engineering, operations research, and other fields in applied probability.

    And then we wonder why software is notorious for being delivered late and full of bugs, while other engineers routinely deliver finished bridges, automobiles, electrical appliances, etc., on time and with only minor defects. This book sets out to redress this imbalance. Members of my advanced development team at Adobe who took the course based on the same material all benefited greatly from the time invested. It may appear as a highly technical text intended only for computer scientists, but it should be required reading for all practicing software engineers." --Martin Newell, Adobe Fellow"The book contains some of the most beautiful code I have ever seen." --Bjarne Stroustrup, Designer of C++"I am happy to see the content of Alex's course, the development and teaching of which I strongly supported as the CTO of Silicon Graphics, now available to all programmers in this elegant little book." --Forest Baskett, General Partner, New Enterprise Associates"Paul's patience and architectural experience helped to organize Alex's mathematical approach into a tightly-structured edifice--an impressive feat!" --Robert W. Taylor, Founder of Xerox PARC CSL and DEC Systems Research Center Elements of Programming provides a different understanding of programming than is presented elsewhere. Its major premise is that practical programming, like other areas of science and engineering, must be based on a solid mathematical foundation. The book shows that algorithms implemented in a real programming language, such as C++, can operate in the most general mathematical setting. For example, the fast exponentiation algorithm is defined to work with any associative operation. Using abstract algorithms leads to efficient, reliable, secure, and economical software.This is not an easy book. Nor is it a compilation of tips and tricks for incremental improvements in your programming skills. The book's value is more fundamental and, ultimately, more critical for insight into programming. To benefit fully, you will need to work through it from beginning to end, reading the code, proving the lemmas, and doing the exercises. When finished, you will see how the application of the deductive method to your programs assures that your system's software components will work together and behave as they must.The book presents a number of algorithms and requirements for types on which they are defined. The code for these descriptions--also available on the Web--is written in a small subset of C++ meant to be accessible to any experienced programmer. This subset is defined in a special language appendix coauthored by Sean Parent and Bjarne Stroustrup.Whether you are a software developer, or any other professional for whom programming is an important activity, or a committed student, you will come to understand what the book's experienced authors have been teaching and demonstrating for years--that mathematics is good for programming, and that theory is good for practice.

    "Monitoring Monitoring" explains what makes your monitoring less than stellar, and provides a practical approach to designing and implementing a monitoring strategy, from the application down to the hardware in the datacenter and everything in between.In the world of technical operations, monitoring is core to everything you do. In today s changing landscape of microservices, cloud infrastructure, and more, monitoring is experiencing a new surge of growth, bringing along new methodologies, new ways of thinking, and new tools.Complete with a primer on statistics and a monitoring vocabulary, this book helps you identify the main areas you need to monitor and shows you how to approach them. It s ideal for operations engineers, system administrators, system and software engineers, site reliability engineers, network engineers, and other operations professionals."

    But now, astonishing new research is revealing patterns in human behavior previously thought to be purely random. Precise, orderly, predictable patterns... Albert Laszlo Barabasi, already the world's preeminent researcher on the science of networks, describes his work on this profound mystery in Bursts, a stunningly original investigation into human nature. His approach relies on the digital reality of our world, from mobile phones to the Internet and email, because it has turned society into a huge research laboratory. All those electronic trails of time stamped texts, voicemails, and internet searches add up to a previously unavailable massive data set of statistics that track our movements, our decisions, our lives. Analysis of these trails is offering deep insights into the rhythm of how we do everything. His finding? We work and fight and play in short flourishes of activity followed by next to nothing. The pattern isn't random, it's "bursty." Randomness does not rule our lives in the way scientists have assumed up until now. Illustrating this revolutionary science, Barabasi artfully weaves together the story of a 16th century burst of human activity-a bloody medieval crusade launched in his homeland, Transylvania-with the modern tale of a contemporary artist hunted by the FBI through our post 9/11 surveillance society. These narratives illustrate how predicting human behavior has long been the obsession, sometimes the duty, of those in power. Barabási's astonishingly wide range of examples from seemingly unrelated areas include how dollar bills move around the U.S., the pattern everyone follows in writing email, the spread of epidemics, and even the flight patterns of albatross. In all these phenomena a virtually identical, mathematically described bursty pattern emerges.Bursts reveals what this amazing new research is showing us about where individual spontaneity ends and predictability in human behavior begins. The way you think about your own potential to do something truly extraordinary will never be the same.

    We nevertheless muddle through even in the absence of theories of how to act. But how do we do it?In Probably Approximately Correct, computer scientist Leslie Valiant presents a masterful synthesis of learning and evolution to show how both individually and collectively we not only survive, but prosper in a world as complex as our own. The key is “probably approximately correct” algorithms, a concept Valiant developed to explain how effective behavior can be learned. The model shows that pragmatically coping with a problem can provide a satisfactory solution in the absence of any theory of the problem. After all, finding a mate does not require a theory of mating. Valiant’s theory reveals the shared computational nature of evolution and learning, and sheds light on perennial questions such as nature versus nurture and the limits of artificial intelligence.Offering a powerful and elegant model that encompasses life’s complexity, Probably Approximately Correct has profound implications for how we think about behavior, cognition, biological evolution, and the possibilities and limits of human and machine intelligence.

    His investigations shed light on what we can ultimately know about the universe and the very nature of life. In an infectious and enthusiastic narrative, Chaitin delineates the specific intellectual and intuitive steps he took toward the discovery. He takes us to the very frontiers of scientific thinking, and helps us to appreciate the art—and the sheer beauty—in the science of math.

    Its humorous title begins with the punch line of a classic joke about someone who is baffled by technology. It was written by a 40-year computer veteran who wants to take the mystery out of computers and allow everyone to gain a true understanding of exactly what computers are, and also what they are not. Years of writing, diagramming, piloting and editing have culminated in one easy to read volume that contains all of the basic principles of computers written so that everyone can understand them. There used to be only two types of book that delved into the insides of computers. The simple ones point out the major parts and describe their functions in broad general terms. Computer Science textbooks eventually tell the whole story, but along the way, they include every detail that an engineer could conceivably ever need to know. Like Momma Bear's porridge, But How Do It Know? is just right, but it is much more than just a happy medium. For the first time, this book thoroughly demonstrates each of the basic principles that have been used in every computer ever built, while at the same time showing the integral role that codes play in everything that computers are able to do. It cuts through all of the electronics and mathematics, and gets right to practical matters. Here is a simple part, see what it does. Connect a few of these together and you get a new part that does another simple thing. After just a few iterations of connecting up simple parts - voilà! - it's a computer. And it is much simpler than anyone ever imagined. But How Do It Know? really explains how computers work. They are far simpler than anyone has ever permitted you to believe. It contains everything you need to know, and nothing you don't need to know. No technical background of any kind is required. The basic principles of computers have not changed one iota since they were invented in the mid 20th century. "Since the day I learned how computers work, it always felt like I knew a giant secret, but couldn't tell anyone," says the author. Now he's taken the time to explain it in such a manner that anyone can have that same moment of enlightenment and thereafter see computers in an entirely new light.