The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

    From 5K to ultramarathon, a power meter can make you faster—but only if you know how to use it. Just viewing your numbers is not enough; you can only become a faster, stronger, more efficient runner when you know what your key numbers mean for your workouts, races, and your season-long training. In Run with Power, TrainingBible coach Jim Vance offers the comprehensive guide you need to find the speed you want.Run with Power demystifies the data and vocabulary so you can find and understand your most important numbers. You’ll set your Running Power Zones so you can begin training using 8 power-based training plans for 5K, 10K, half-marathon, and marathon. Vance shows you how you can compare wattage, heart rate, pace, and perceived exertion to gain the maximum insight into your performances, how you respond to training, and how you can train more effectively. Run with Power will revolutionize how you train and race. Armed with Vance’s guidance, you can train more specifically for races, smooth your running technique, accurately measure your fitness, predict a fitness plateau, monitor injuries, know exactly how hard you’re training, get more fitness from every workout, recover fully, perfect your tapers, warm up without wasting energy, pace your race on any terrain, know when to open the throttle, and create an unprecedented picture of yourself as an athlete.If you’re just glancing at the number on your wrist or computer monitor, you’ve got a lot more speed potential. Knowledge is power and understanding your power numbers can open the gate to new methods and new PRs. Run with Power introduces the use of power meters to the sport of running and will show you how to break through to all-new levels of performance.Key concepts explored in Run with Power: 3/9 Test, 30-minute Time Trial Test, Running Functional Threshold Power (rFTPw), Running Functional Threshold Pace (rFTPa), Averaged and Normalized Power (NP), Intensity Factor (IF), Peak Power, Variability Index, Efficiency Index (EI), speed per watt, Vance’s Power Zones for Running, Training Stress Score (TSS), and Periodization with Power. Includes 6 testing methods and 8 power-based training schedules and workouts for 5K, 10K, half-marathon, and marathon.

    Jay Withgott and new co-author Matt Laposata present the latest coverage of environmental science and introduce new FAQ sections to address common student misconceptions. Note: This is the standalone book if you want the book/access card order the ISBN below: 0321752546 / 9780321752543 Essential Environment: The Science behind the Stories Plus MasteringEnvironmentalScience with eText -- Access Card Package Package consists of: 0321752902 / 9780321752901 Essential Environment: The Science behind the Stories 0321754077 / 9780321754073 MasteringEnvironmentalScience with Pearson eText -- Valuepack Access Card -- Essential Environment: The Science behind the Stories (ME component) "

    What if everything in life could be reduced to a simple formula? What if numbers were able to tell us which partners we were best matched with – not just in terms of attractiveness, but for a long-term committed marriage? Or if they could say which films would be the biggest hits at the box office, and what changes could be made to those films to make them even more successful? Or even who out of us is likely to commit certain crimes, and when? This may sound like the world of science-fiction, but in fact it is just the tip of the iceberg in a world that is increasingly ruled by complex algorithms and neural networks.In The Formula, Luke Dormehl takes you inside the world of numbers, asking how we came to believe in the all-conquering power of algorithms; introducing the mathematicians, artificial intelligence experts and Silicon Valley entrepreneurs who are shaping this brave new world, and ultimately asking how we survive in an era where numbers can sometimes seem to create as many problems as they solve.

    It was not until moments before landing that anything went wrong. Coming in to Heathrow Airport, the plane suffered inexplicable loss of power to both engines, and it was suddenly likely that the plane would plough into a built-up area outside the airport, with the loss of all lives on board. Peter tells us in graphic detail his thoughts and actions when he managed to help save the plane at the last moment thanks to a flash of inspiration that led him to change the position of the wing flaps, which appeared to gain the vehicle enough precious time to make it over the perimeter fence and land on the grass, short of the runway. For both Maria and Peter, their lives following the crash have resulted in experiences that they never would have expected to have happened. There isn't a handbook with rules to follow after a crash so the subsequent aftermath was laced with events that could have been handled better from all sides, which lead to Maria and Peter having to find strength inside them that they had never needed before. A little more than a year later, they have used these strengths to begin a new chapter in their lives; starting with leaving British Airways and celebrating a second chance to enjoy life.But there are still nights when they find themselves awake, crying about what could have happened on that fateful day.

    Crease tells the stories behind ten of the greatest equations in human history. Was Nobel laureate Richard Feynman really joking when he called Maxwell's electromagnetic equations the most significant event of the nineteenth century? How did Newton's law of gravitation influence young revolutionaries? Why has Euler's formula been called "God's equation," and why did a mysterious ecoterrorist make it his calling card? What role do betrayal, insanity, and suicide play in the second law of thermodynamics?The Great Equations tells the stories of how these equations were discovered, revealing the personal struggles of their ingenious originators. From "1 + 1 = 2" to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, Crease locates these equations in the panoramic sweep of Western history, showing how they are as integral to their time and place of creation as are great works of art.

    Science and politics collide in this thrilling account of America's struggle for protection against the deadly threat of violent weather. Warnings tells the dramatic true stories of the unsung weather warriors who save innocent lives, often by risking their own.

    Provides a review of introductory noncalculus-based physics for those who do not have a strong background in mathematics.

    Our inaugural effort is OpenIntro Statistics. Probability is optional, inference is key, and we feature real data whenever possible. Files for the entire book are freely available at openintro.org, and anybody can purchase a paperback copy from amazon.com for under $10.The future for OpenIntro depends on the involvement and enthusiasm of our community. Visit our website, openintro.org. We provide free course management tools, including an online question bank, utilities for creating course quizzes, and many other helpful resources.CERTAIN CONTENT THAT APPEARS ON THIS SITE COMES FROM AMAZON SERVICES LLC. THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED ‘AS IS’ AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE OR REMOVAL AT ANY TIME.Can’t find it here? Search Amazon.com Search: All Products Apparel & AccessoriesBabyBeautyBooksCamera & PhotoCell Phones & ServiceClassical MusicComputersComputer & Video GamesDVDElectronicsGourmet FoodHome & GardenMiscellaneousHealth & Personal CareJewelry & WatchesKitchen & HousewaresMagazine SubscriptionsMusicMusical InstrumentsSoftwareSports & OutdoorsTools & HardwareToys & GamesVHS Keywords:

    Len Fisher turns his attention to the science of cooperation in his lively and thought-provoking book. Fisher shows how the modern science of game theory has helped biologists to understand the evolution of cooperation in nature, and investigates how we might apply those lessons to our own society. In a series of experiments that take him from the polite confines of an English dinner party to crowded supermarkets, congested Indian roads, and the wilds of outback Australia, not to mention baseball strategies and the intricacies of quantum mechanics, Fisher sheds light on the problem of global cooperation. The outcomes are sometimes hilarious, sometimes alarming, but always revealing. A witty romp through a serious science, Rock, Paper, Scissors will both teach and delight anyone interested in what it what it takes to get people to work together.

    Collected from the series of blog posts starting at: https://bartoszmilewski.com/2014/10/2...Hardcover available at: http://www.blurb.com/b/9008339-catego...

    Darrell Huff runs the gamut of every popularly used type of statistic, probes such things as the sample study, the tabulation method, the interview technique, or the way the results are derived from the figures, and points up the countless number of dodges which are used to fool rather than to inform.

    From manhole covers to bubbles to subway maps, each page gives you a glimpse of the world through renowned mathematicians' eyes and reveals how their theorems and equations can be applied to nearly everything you encounter. Covering dozens of your favorite math topics, you'll find fascinating answers to questions like:How are the waiting times for buses determined?Why is Romanesco Broccoli so mesmerizing?How do you divide a cake evenly?Should you run or walk to avoid rain showers?Filled with compelling mathematical explanations, Math Geek sheds light on the incredible world of numbers hidden deep within your day-to-day life.

    Game Theory is the mathematical formalization of interactive decision-making - it assumes that each player's goal is to maximize his/her benefit, whatever it may be. Players may be friends, foes, political parties, states, or any entity that behaves interactively, whether collectively or individually. One of the problems with game analysis is the fact that, as a player, it's very hard to know what would benefit each of the other players; some of us are not even clear about our own goals or what might actually benefit us. Haim Shapira uses multiple examples to explain what Game Theory is and how the different interactions between decision-makers can play out. In this book you will: Meet the Nobel Laureate John F Nash and familiarize yourself with his celebrated equilibrium Learn the basic ideas of the art of negotiation Visit the gladiators' ring and apply for a coaching position Build an airport and divide inheritance Issue ultimatums and learn to trust

    1: Elementary Theory and Problems contains the essential material that is usually covered in required courses of strength of materials in our engineering schools. Strength of Materials - Part. 2: Advanced Theory and Problems contains the later developments that are of practical importance in the fields of strength of materials, and theory of elasticity. Complete derivations of problems of practical interest are given in most cases. The books are illustrated with a number of problems to which solutions are presented. In many cases, the problems are chosen so as to widen the field covered by the text and to illustrate the application of the theory in the solution of design problems.