Essentially, you are estimating a probability, but then updating that estimate based on other things that you know. This book is designed to give you an intuitive understanding of how to use Bayes Theorem. It starts with the definition of what Bayes Theorem is, but the focus of the book is on providing examples that you can follow and duplicate. Most of the examples are calculated in Excel, which is useful for updating probability if you have dozens or hundreds of data points to roll in.

    this is one of those rare books that will change your beliefs - and in doing so will change your life. tHE ANt AND tHE FERRARI offers readers a clear, navigable path through the big questions that confront us all today. What is the meaning of life? Can we be ethical beings in today's world? Can we know if there is life after death? Is there such a thing as Absolute truth? What caused the Big Bang and why should you care?

    Beginning with the background and very nature of probability theory, the book then proceeds through sample spaces, combinatorial analysis, fluctuations in coin tossing and random walks, the combination of events, types of distributions, Markov chains, stochastic processes, and more. The book's comprehensive approach provides a complete view of theory along with enlightening examples along the way.

    The rise of the Internet and the wide availability of inexpensive computers have made it possible to gather and analyze network data on a large scale, and the development of a variety of new theoretical tools has allowed us to extract new knowledge from many different kinds of networks.The study of networks is broadly interdisciplinary and important developments have occurred in many fields, including mathematics, physics, computer and information sciences, biology, and the social sciences. This book brings together for the first time the most important breakthroughs in each of these fields and presents them in a coherent fashion, highlighting the strong interconnections between work in different areas.Subjects covered include the measurement and structure of networks in many branches of science, methods for analyzing network data, including methods developed in physics, statistics, and sociology, the fundamentals of graph theory, computer algorithms, and spectral methods, mathematical models of networks, including random graph models and generative models, and theories of dynamical processes taking place on networks.

    This is the currently used textbook for "Probabilistic Systems Analysis," an introductory probability course at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, attended by a large number of undergraduate and graduate students. The book covers the fundamentals of probability theory (probabilistic models, discrete and continuous random variables, multiple random variables, and limit theorems), which are typically part of a first course on the subject. It also contains, a number of more advanced topics, from which an instructor can choose to match the goals of a particular course. These topics include transforms, sums of random variables, least squares estimation, the bivariate normal distribution, and a fairly detailed introduction to Bernoulli, Poisson, and Markov processes. The book strikes a balance between simplicity in exposition and sophistication in analytical reasoning. Some of the more mathematically rigorous analysis has been just intuitively explained in the text, but is developed in detail (at the level of advanced calculus) in the numerous solved theoretical problems. The book has been widely adopted for classroom use in introductory probability courses within the USA and abroad.

    The nature of football continually changes, which means its analysis must also keep pace. This book is for students, thinkers, and theorists of the game.'Ted Hopkins - Carlton premiership player, author, and co-founder of Champion Data. Australian Rules football has been described as the most data-rich sport on Earth. Every time and everywhere an AFL side takes to the field, it is shadowed by an army of statisticians and number crunchers. The information they gather has become the sport's new language and currency. ABC journalist James Coventry, author of the acclaimed Time and Space, has joined forces with a group of razor-sharp analysts to decipher the data, and to use it to question some of football's long-held truisms. Do umpires really favour the home side? Has goal kicking accuracy deteriorated? Is Geelong the true master of the draft? Are blonds unfairly favoured in Brownlow medal voting? And are Victorians the most passionate fans? Through a blend of entertaining storytelling and expert analysis, this book will answer more questions about footy than you ever thought to ask. Praise for Time and Space:'Brilliant, masterful' - The Guardian'Arguably one of the most important books yet written on Australian Rules football.' - Inside History'Should find its way into the hands of every coach.' - AFL Record

    It's extremely selfish to think we are the only existing intelligent life. Science and religion are on the verge of discovering the truth. Super ancient societies and their archaeological evidence uncovered to this day is a vault of stored information waiting to be unlocked. All we need to do is find the key. Help us uncover the truth by learning about Ancient Earth Mysteries.

    Contemplation of time and the discoveries of modern science lead to the assertion that the mind is paramount and limitless.

    Part I asks: Is evolving Nature all there is – self-generated, self-sustaining, self-contained? Are human beings, as the topmost outgrowth of Nature, responsible to none other but themselves? That is the stance of naturalist and atheist Richard Dawkins. Or is evolving reality derived from, and dependent on, a transcendent Source and Destiny, to whom humans are accountable and whose benevolence reaches out to humans as persons because humans are persons? That is the conviction of the Christian faith. Part II shows that Dawkins’ interpretation of religion is deficient even in evolutionary terms and lacks the objectivity and impartiality of genuine science.Backed with in-depth study and thorough research, Richard Dawkins’ God Delusion: A repentant refutation is a masterfully written work that attempts to provide answers to believers and non-believers by presenting scientific and religious reasoning.

    This updated edition of Ross's classic bestseller provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes, and shows how probability theory can be applied to the study of phenomena in fields such as engineering, computer science, management science, the physical and social sciences, and operations research. With the addition of several new sections relating to actuaries, this text is highly recommended by the Society of Actuaries.This book now contains a new section on compound random variables that can be used to establish a recursive formula for computing probability mass functions for a variety of common compounding distributions; a new section on hiddden Markov chains, including the forward and backward approaches for computing the joint probability mass function of the signals, as well as the Viterbi algorithm for determining the most likely sequence of states; and a simplified approach for analyzing nonhomogeneous Poisson processes. There are also additional results on queues relating to the conditional distribution of the number found by an M/M/1 arrival who spends a time t in the system; inspection paradox for M/M/1 queues; and M/G/1 queue with server breakdown. Furthermore, the book includes new examples and exercises, along with compulsory material for new Exam 3 of the Society of Actuaries.This book is essential reading for professionals and students in actuarial science, engineering, operations research, and other fields in applied probability.

    Discovered by an 18th century mathematician and preacher, Bayes' rule is a cornerstone of modern probability theory. In this richly illustrated book, intuitive visual representations of real-world examples are used to show how Bayes' rule is actually a form of commonsense reasoning. The tutorial style of writing, combined with a comprehensive glossary, makes this an ideal primer for novices who wish to gain an intuitive understanding of Bayesian analysis. As an aid to understanding, online computer code (in MatLab, Python and R) reproduces key numerical results and diagrams.Stone's book is renowned for its visually engaging style of presentation, which stems from teaching Bayes' rule to psychology students for over 10 years as a university lecturer.

    From the classroom to the courtroom and from financial markets to supermarkets, Mlodinow's intriguing and illuminating look at how randomness, chance, and probability affect our daily lives will intrigue, awe, and inspire.

    Unnikrishna Pillai of Polytechnic University. The book is intended for a senior/graduate level course in probability and is aimed at students in electrical engineering, math, and physics departments. The authors' approach is to develop the subject of probability theory and stochastic processes as a deductive discipline and to illustrate the theory with basic applications of engineering interest. Approximately 1/3 of the text is new material--this material maintains the style and spirit of previous editions. In order to bridge the gap between concepts and applications, a number of additional examples have been added for further clarity, as well as several new topics.

    This is a book about how many of the 'big' philosophical and religious questions that have puzzled mankind for centuries can be answered by recent breakthroughs in science.

    D.E. Boyer takes us on a fascinating journey from the depths of despair to an amazing quantum world where anything is possible. First, we will learn how to defend ourselves against the chaos in our minds, then we will learn how to rekindle the magic in our hearts. Along the way, the wisdom of Socrates and the myth of Narcissus will transform the way we think and feel. Boyer then shows us how the military teaches their Navy Seal recruits how to handle their thoughts and feelings when someone is trying to kill them, so we can better handle our bosses, spouses, and children when it feels like they are trying to kill us. We will also get a glimpse of death through the eyes of someone who sees people die every day, giving us a much greater appreciation for life. With extremely amusing stories from her own life that touch on her dysfunctional upbringing and traumatizing career as an intensive care nurse, Boyer teaches us how to control our anxiety, boost our fragile self-esteem, and get into a state of flow so that we can spend most of our time loving life, rather than dreading it. She also gives us crucial health and nutrition tips so that we can live longer with our newfound peace and joy, and she shows us how to be more successful at life by being a better friend, spouse, and parent. With every step we take on this path, we'll find ourselves flirting with the hidden power of the mind, a power that often lies just beyond most people's reach. Only by mastering the basics of thinking and feeling can we gain access to this power. Once the door is unlocked, we will enter another dimension, a quantum world where time is irrelevant and the magic of our mind is waiting to be found.