Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

     The Viking Age! A brief footprint in the course of history that impacted generations hundreds of years into the future. You will dive into the depths of Scandinavia to find out what made the Vikings the most feared group of people in the European Middle Ages. Experts at warfare and navigating the high seas, the Vikings were on a mission and would not let anyone stand in their way! Brutal conquerors they were, but the Vikings were no mere savages. The Vikings had a unique culture and society that spread much influence through transcontinental trade and exploration into unknown worlds. Navigate the Vikings' journey from their first encounters with the inhabitants of the British Isles to their discoveries of Greenland and North America. Along the way, meet some of the most famous Vikings to ever walk the face of the Earth. You will meet the infamous legend Ragnar Lothbrok whose very existence is shrouded in mystery. Step into the shoes of the first European explorer to step foot onto the lands of North America, Leif Erikson. Countless other warriors, kings, and explorers left their mark that paved the path the world has taken to this very day. Get your copy now! Relive their journeys through the eyes of a Viking and discover the makings of this fascinating civilization!

    Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today's model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work.The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation.By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling.Web ResourceThe book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author's website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

    In this exciting sequel, Barbara Hand Clow takes these teachings to a practical level so that we can all discover multidimensionality in our daily lives.Based on more than ten years of experience with students, and years of research into the new sciences that validate the breakthrough concepts in The Pleiadian Agenda, Clow presents each dimension in detail. Alchemy of Nine Dimensions reveals how the Pleiadians described the nine dimensionssharpens our understanding with scientific and historical explanationsoffers a startling interpretation of crop circleshelps you contact and work with beings in many dimensions, and provides meditations on how to ground these nine dimensions of awareness energetically into our bodiesFinally, Clow reveals the true significance of the date December 21, 2012--the end of the Mayan calendar--and tells you what you need to know to begin physical and spiritual preparation.

    In A Brief History of Mathematical Thought, Luke Heaton explores how the language of mathematics has evolved over time, enabling new technologies and shaping the way people think. From stone-age rituals to algebra, calculus, and the concept of computation, Heaton shows the enormous influence of mathematics on science, philosophy and the broader human story. The book traces the fascinating history of mathematical practice, focusing on the impact of key conceptual innovations. Its structure of thirteen chapters split between four sections is dictated by a combination of historical and thematic considerations. In the first section, Heaton illuminates the fundamental concept of number. He begins with a speculative and rhetorical account of prehistoric rituals, before describing the practice of mathematics in Ancient Egypt, Babylon and Greece. He then examines the relationship between counting and the continuum of measurement, and explains how the rise of algebra has dramatically transformed our world. In the second section, he explores the origins of calculus and the conceptual shift that accompanied the birth of non-Euclidean geometries. In the third section, he examines the concept of the infinite and the fundamentals of formal logic. Finally, in section four, he considers the limits of formal proof, and the critical role of mathematics in our ongoing attempts to comprehend the world around us. The story of mathematics is fascinating in its own right, but Heaton does more than simply outline a history of mathematical ideas. More importantly, he shows clearly how the history and philosophy of maths provides an invaluable perspective on human nature.

    To Taylor, self-fulfillment, although often expressed in self-centered ways, isn't necessarily a rejection of traditional values and social commitment; it also reflects something authentic and valuable in modern culture. Only by distinguishing what is good in this modern striving from what is socially and politically dangerous, Taylor says, can our age be made to deliver its promise.

    Republished in book form shortly thereafter, it has since gone through four hardcover and sixteen paperback printings. It is a revolutionary work, astounding in its foresight and contemporaneity. The University of Illinois Press is pleased and honored to issue this commemorative reprinting of a classic.

    First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as self-evident." --Arthur SchopenhauerThe Ponzi Factor is the most comprehensive research ever compiled on the negative-sum nature of capital gains (non-dividend stocks). The book shows why, as a whole, ALL investors will lose money from buying and selling stocks.Most people don’t realize that profits from buying and selling stocks come from other investors who are also buying and selling stocks. When one investor buys low and sells high, another investor is also buying high and needs to sell for even higher. Companies like Google, Telsa, Facebook never pay their investors. Their investors’ profits are dependent on the inflow of money from new investors, which by definition, is how a Ponzi scheme works.This book is not for everyone. If you are a finance junkie who wants to rationalize why companies don’t have to pay their investors and believe a system that shuffles money between investor can magically create more money than people contribute, then this book is not for you. On the other hand, if you understand why we can’t create money by shuffling it with imaginary paper, and that investors invest because they want money, not value, then you will learn something you will never forget: The mechanics of how the stock market works and what really makes a stock price move.A stock without dividends is a Ponzi asset. It’s not how equity instruments were designed to work historically and not how ownership instruments are supposed to work logically. The Ponzi Factor is not a perspective or an opinion. It is a proof that is based on definition, logic, and it is supported by observable facts and history. This is not a story that will disappear after another market crash. It is an idea that will remain relevant for as long as the stock market exists.Lastly, to critics, the naysayer, and the finance junkies who think the imaginary value = cash. The author will award $20,000 to anyone who can show why non-dividend stocks DO NOT meet the definition of a Ponzi scheme. That’s $20,000 in cash, not value. (Details on this book's website. The Ponzi Factor. Proof by Definition.)

    

    His illuminating explanation is addressed to the person who wants to understand the place of mathematics in modern civilization but who has been intimidated by its supposed difficulty. Mathematics is the language of size, shape, and order—a language Hogben shows one can both master and enjoy.

    An extremely clever account.--The New Yorker.

    Professor Drezner takes you behind the headlines and into the debates to dispel common myths about prosperity and get at deeper truths. By taking a broad view of economics that includes psychology, sociology, political science, and history, his lectures lead you to fundamental insights about how the modern world works and a deeper understanding of the functioning of the U.S., European, Chinese, and other major economies, as well as an appreciation for the special problems faced by underdeveloped nations. You'll examine dozens of case histories that illustrate what works and doesn't work in the drive to increase economic growth. You'll also learn about intriguing examples of prosperity won or lost, including the Dutch tulip mania in 1637, the era of globalization that started in the 1850s and lasting through World War I, and Ukraine's economic missteps after the breakup of the Soviet Union. As a start on your own road to greater prosperity, take this step to invest in an unparalleled explanation of the prerequisites to achieve it.

    With these new unabridged and inexpensive editions, Wiley hopes to extend the life of these important works by making them available to future generations of mathematicians and scientists.Currently available in the Series: Emil ArtinGeometnc Algebra R. W. CarterSimple Groups Of Lie Type Richard CourantDifferential and Integrai Calculus. Volume I Richard CourantDifferential and Integral Calculus. Volume II Richard Courant & D. HilbertMethods of Mathematical Physics, Volume I Richard Courant & D. HilbertMethods of Mathematical Physics. Volume II Harold M. S. CoxeterIntroduction to Modern Geometry. Second Edition Charles W. Curtis, Irving ReinerRepresentation Theory of Finite Groups and Associative Algebras Nelson Dunford, Jacob T. Schwartzunear Operators. Part One. General Theory Nelson Dunford. Jacob T. SchwartzLinear Operators, Part Two. Spectral Theory--Self Adjant Operators in Hilbert Space Nelson Dunford, Jacob T. SchwartzLinear Operators. Part Three. Spectral Operators Peter HenriciApplied and Computational Complex Analysis. Volume I--Power Senes-lntegrauon-Contormal Mapping-Locatvon of Zeros Peter Hilton, Yet-Chiang WuA Course in Modern Algebra Harry HochstadtIntegral Equations Erwin KreyszigIntroductory Functional Analysis with Applications P. M. PrenterSplines and Variational Methods C. L. SiegelTopics in Complex Function Theory. Volume I --Elliptic Functions and Uniformizatton Theory C. L. SiegelTopics in Complex Function Theory. Volume II --Automorphic and Abelian Integrals C. L. SiegelTopics In Complex Function Theory. Volume III --Abelian Functions & Modular Functions of Several Variables J. J. StokerDifferential Geometry

    In The Master Algorithm, Pedro Domingos lifts the veil to give us a peek inside the learning machines that power Google, Amazon, and your smartphone. He assembles a blueprint for the future universal learner--the Master Algorithm--and discusses what it will mean for business, science, and society. If data-ism is today's philosophy, this book is its bible.