He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

    We cannot choose to avoid philosophy, we can only choose whether we understand it or not. Stefan Molyneux, host of Freedomain Radio – the largest and most popular philosophy show in the world, with over 600 million views and downloads – takes you on a spectacular journey through the most foundational philosophical questions of the ages, clearing up and clarifying the most thorny problems posed by philosophers throughout history: -How do we know what is real? -How do we know what is true? -How do we know what is right? -How do we know what is good? -How do we know we even have a choice? -How do we convince others? These are all questions that we – as individuals and societies – wrestle with every day. These questions have challenged, motivated and plagued mankind for thousands of years. “Essential Philosophy” answers these questions with rigourous, illuminating and entertaining logic, reasoning from deep first principles to spectacular final conclusions. There is no need for confusion, there is no need for despair, there is no need for fear – pick up this book now, absorb the true power of philosophy, and live a rational moral life to the fullest. And then, give “Essential Philosophy” to others, so that the world may one day live in reason and peace.

    In Burn Math Class, Jason Wilkes takes the traditional approach to how we learn math -- with its unwelcoming textbooks, unexplained rules, and authoritarian assertions-and sets it on fire. Focusing on how mathematics is created rather than on mathematical facts, Wilkes teaches the subject in a way that requires no memorization and no prior knowledge beyond addition and multiplication. From these simple foundations, Burn Math Class shows how mathematics can be (re)invented from scratch without preexisting textbooks and courses. We can discover math on our own through experimentation and failure, without appealing to any outside authority. When math is created free from arcane notations and pretentious jargon that hide the simplicity of mathematical concepts, it can be understood organically -- and it becomes fun! Following this unconventional approach, Burn Math Class leads the reader from the basics of elementary arithmetic to various "advanced" topics, such as time-dilation in special relativity, Taylor series, and calculus in infinite-dimensional spaces. Along the way, Wilkes argues that orthodox mathematics education has been teaching the subject backward: calculus belongs before many of its so-called prerequisites, and those prerequisites cannot be fully understood without calculus. Like the smartest, craziest teacher you've ever had, Wilkes guides you on an adventure in mathematical creation that will radically change the way you think about math. Revealing the beauty and simplicity of this timeless subject, Burn Math Class turns everything that seems difficult about mathematics upside down and sideways until you understand just how easy math can be.

    Amazon best-selling author and professional trader, Matthew Kratter will teach you everything you need to know to day trade stocks-- and to avoid getting wiped out. And if you ever get stuck, you can always reach out to him by email (provided inside of the book), and he will help you. To start making money today, scroll to the top of this page and click BUY NOW.

     * Compelling evidence that selling products on Amazon may be the best home-based business opportunity ever created * The Simple Profit Blueprint – How to Make $1,000 Per Day Clear Profit on Amazon with One Single $35 Product You Choose * The biggest obstacle in your way of achieving that goal and how I will help you overcome it (Hint: It's all in your head) * What selling products on Amazon is all about * The common misconceptions about selling products on Amazon * The powerful advantages to selling on Amazon as opposed to trying to sell products online on your own * The PRICELESS benefits to “Partnering” with Amazon * The basics of selling products on Amazon * The basics of finding profitable products to sell on Amazon * The two distinctly different methods to find the products you’ll be selling on Amazon * The “Retail Arbitrage” method of sourcing products to sell on Amazon * The “Private Label” method of sourcing products to sell on Amazon * Two distinctly different methods of Private Labeling products to sell on Amazon * Two distinctly different ways to sell your products on Amazon * Our (my partner and I) experience in our first year as Amazon sellers, exactly how much money we made and what it taught us * Retail Arbitrage vs. Private Label * The two major obstacles to making really big money with Retail Arbitrage * How to sign-up as an Amazon seller today for free and why you'll soon want to pay $39.99 per month to go "Pro" * You're creating "AZ Money Machines" (AMMs instead of ATMs) * How Amazon pays you and the breakdown of the check Amazon would be sending you every two weeks (or depositing directly into your bank account) * How the blueprint creates a self-perpetuating NET annual income of $360,720 * Why you should NOT make your goal $1,000 per day * How to become a cash millionaire in 3 simple steps * How building an enormously successful Amazon business is a simple step-by-step process * How to earn insanely high annualized returns on your product investments * How you can “fail” your way to success * The “Beyond Amazon” Bonus * How to scale your business up with three simple steps to where you are a bona fide cash millionaire * Can you really make more money in one week than you've ever made on your old job in one year? (Simple answer – YES!) * Where to get 100% of the money you need to grow your Amazon business as large as you want – at 0% interest * Where to find MORE money to build your business * Your Free* Training * Your Shortcut to the BIG Money * Your action steps to get started today * Chart your success to $1,000 per day – and more * The "Secret Sauce" that will supercharge your motivation and determination to succeed in this business Tags: Amazon Private Label FBA, FBA, Private Label FBA, Amazon FBA, Amazon FBA Secrets, Sell on Amazon, Retail Arbitrage, Physical Products, Private Label, FBA, Private Label, Home-Based Business, Amazing Selling Machine, Fulfillment by Amazon, Private La

    Along the way we’ll learn how selection bias can explain why your boss doesn’t know he sucks (even when everyone else does); how to use Bayes’ Theorem to decide if your partner is cheating on you; and why Mark Zuckerberg should never be used as an example for anything. See the world in a whole new light, and make better decisions and judgements without ever going near a t-test. Think. Think Statistically.

    Covering Sid's early years in South Africa and life as a ladies' hairdresser, his obsession with gambling and women, his questioning by Scotland Yard in a murder case, Hancock's Half Hour and the Carry On films, and Sid's death on stage at the age of 63, Cliff Goodwin reveals the amazing truth behing the legend.

    He asks how today's scientists can claim to predict future climate events when even three-day forecasts prove a serious challenge. Can we predict and control epidemics? Can we accurately foresee our financial future? Or will we only find out about tomorrow when tomorrow arrives?

    World History

    Language is informal, examples are vivid and lively, and the perspectivie is fresh. Based on lectures delivered to engineering students, this work will also be valued by scientists, engineers, technicians, businessmen, anyone facing energy challenges of the future.

    A modern classic by an accomplished mathematician and best-selling author has been updated to encompass and explain the recent headline-making advances in the field in non-technical terms.

    And that evolution has huge implications for everything we see, buy and do online. Rejecting the zero-sum, vending-machine model of ecommerce practiced by other leading internet retailers, who view the Internet purely as a facilitator of speed and profit, Hiroshi Mikitani argues for an alternate model that benefits merchants, consumers, and communities alike by empowering players at every step in the process. He envisions retail "ecosystems," where small and mid-sized brick-and-mortar businesses around the world partner with online marketplaces to maximize their customer bases and service capabilities, and he shows why emphasizing collaboration over competition, customization over top-down control, and long-term growth over short-term revenue is by far the best use of the Internet's power, and will define the 3.0 era.Rakuten has already pioneered this new model, and Marketplace 3.0 offers colorful examples of its success in Japan and around the world. Mikitani reveals how the company enforces a global mindset (including the requirement that all its employees speak English, even in Tokyo); how it incorporates new acquisitions rather than seeking to completely remake or sell them for a quick profit; and how it competes with other retailers on speed and quality, without sacrificing the public good. Marketplace 3.0 is an exciting new vision for global commerce, from a company that's challenging all the accepted wisdom.

    But guess what? It really does depend. The key to becoming a great poker player is in knowing exactly what it depends on. At last there’s a book that gives you that answer. Poker is a game of so many variables: table position, flop texture, the number of players in a hand, the personalities of your opponents, and so much more. Decide to Play Great Poker teaches you how to identify and analyze those variables, interchange them within basic game-situation templates, and become knowledgeable, comfortable, and confident in any poker situation. Instead of just dictating a bunch of rules that work only some of the time, this book teaches you to become a great poker thinker and strategist, so that you can expertly navigate any poker challenge that you encounter. Most players think that the goal of poker is to make money. They’re wrong! The goal of poker is to make good decisions. Money is simply the way you measure how well you’re meeting that objective. So if you’re ready to start making world-class decisions at the poker table—and to reap the substantial rewards that those decisions will yield—all you have to do is decide: Decide to Play Great Poker now. You’ll never be vexed by “it depends” again.

    Indeed, if God knows everything, why do we need to learn through pain and suffering? If God is omnipotent, why are we needed to do good? If the universe is fundamentally good, why are wars, crime, and injustice all around us? In modern society, orthodox science takes the rational high-ground and tackles these contradictions by denying the very need for, and the existence of, meaning. Indeed, many of us implicitly accept the notion that rationality somehow contradicts spirituality. That is a modern human tragedy, not only for its insidiousness, but for the fact that it is simply not true. In this book, the author constructs a coherent and logical argument for the meaning of existence, informed by science itself. A framework is laid out wherein all aspects of human existence have a logical, coherent reason and role, including the ones often perceived as negative. The powerful logic of this framework inescapably leads to insightful and inspiring guidelines for living a purposeful and meaningful life.

    Beyond the shallow waters of new-age, "law of attraction" and conventional motivational psychology there is a deep well from which you derive unbending determination and strength. That source is within you and can be awakened to achieve anything. The Reality Creation Technique is the most speedily effective method to help you make your dreams come true.