Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

     Barbara Robinette Moss grew up in the red clay hills of Alabama, the fourth of eight children, in a childhood defined by close sibling alliances, staggering poverty, and uncommon abuse at the hands of her wild-eyed, charismatic, alcoholic father. In Fierce, Moss looks at what happens when a child of such a family grows up. At once poetic and plainspoken, Moss, a "powerful writer" (Chicago Tribune), paints a vivid, moving portrait of her persistent quest to reinvent her life and rebel against the rural indigence, addiction, and broken dreams she inherited from her parents. With warmth, insight, and candor, Moss tells the poignant story of finally leaving everything she knew in Alabama to fulfill her ambition to become an artist. It is an odyssey filled with gritty improvisation (bringing her son, Jason, to her night job to sleep on the floor), bittersweet pragmatism (filling her purse on a dinner date with shrimp, rolls, and even a doily, to bring home to a waiting eight-year-old), and staunch conviction and pride (chasing a mail carrier down the street to defend her use of food stamps). As with many other children of alcoholics, the legacy of her father's alcoholism catches up with Moss, and an abusive relationship -- an inheritance and addiction of its own sort -- threatens to destroy all that she has accomplished. But as Moss learns to cope with her anger and pain, parenthood helps her discover true strength. Ultimately, Fierce is a warm, honest, and triumphant story, from a writer celebrated for her Southern lyricism, about a woman determined to make it on her own -- to shrug off the handicaps of her childhood and raise her son responsibly and well.

    Tantalized by the legend of the Driver—the anonymous, possibly nonexistent organizer of the world's ultimate secret race—Roy set out to become a force to be reckoned with. At speeds approaching 200 mph, he sped from London to Morocco, from Budapest to Rome, from San Francisco to Miami, in his highly modified BMW M5, culminating in a new record for the infamous Los Angeles to New York run: 32:07.Sexy, funny, and shocking, The Driver is a never-before-told insider's look at an unbelievably fast and dangerous society that has long been off-limits to ordinary mortals.

    Interviewed and hired by what seemed like a bona fide recruitment agency, Timea left her home on the promise she would earn good money to send home to her family. She had no idea that she'd been lured by a ring of international human traffickers. Upon her arrival in Toronto, she was forced into sex labour in some of the city's seediest nightclubs and kept by her "agents" for three months until she escaped.This is her captivating, heartbreaking but ultimately redemptive story. It will take readers from the early years of Timea's life in Communist Hungary, offering a look inside an austere but complicated world ruled by community, restriction and struggle; then, to the dark, abusive three months working as a sex slave in a country that Timea once believed would offer her freedom and opportunity; and, finally, in riveting detail, through the heart-pounding escape Timea plots.Compelling and sweeping, balancing a tragic and unbelievable experience with a powerful story of grace, Timea Nagy's journey is one that will stay with you long after you read the last page.

    There is nothing wrong with that desire. But you must have known the secrets of avoiding losses. Share Market is a field that has of late developed overwhelmingly. Millions of people invest in it with enthusiasm and are interested in knowing details about this grey area. Sadly, not everyone who invests in it earn profits. Some people who constantly learn end up earning, but those who do not know anything about it and put their trust on luck lose miserably. This book shows the way to avoid losses and increase gains in share market. This comprehensive book touches upon every aspect of stock market investment. A fantastic starting point for anyone aspiring to enter into the unknown world of share market. Even for investors who are already in the market, this book can serve a guide. People say, you either earn or learn in share market. This book preaches the secrets of learning and earning at the same time. This work takes you through an introduction about shares, functioning of share markets, relevance of stock market indices and different approaches for primary & secondary market investments. In also talks about the real qualities of an investor and how he differs from a speculator in the marketplace. Relationship between inflation & investments and the need for achieving inflation adjusted returns are stressed upon. Various stock selection processes, approaches to adapt for different market conditions and more more importantly the art of avoiding losses are discussed in details. You will learn how to analyse a company, its shares, market dynamics, how to value a business, what price to pay for a company etc. All important parameters, numbers and ratios are explained with interesting real time illustrations. Difference between value investing and growth oriented stock selection process is analysed thoroughly, Likewise, fundamental analysis and technical analysis are compared in a rational way. On top of these, this books describe the qualities that differentiate successful investors from ordinary ones. Those qualities are analysed in detail. More importantly, the book stresses the importance of identifying bad companies and unethical management, and teaches how to stay away from them.

    

    The nature of football continually changes, which means its analysis must also keep pace. This book is for students, thinkers, and theorists of the game.'Ted Hopkins - Carlton premiership player, author, and co-founder of Champion Data. Australian Rules football has been described as the most data-rich sport on Earth. Every time and everywhere an AFL side takes to the field, it is shadowed by an army of statisticians and number crunchers. The information they gather has become the sport's new language and currency. ABC journalist James Coventry, author of the acclaimed Time and Space, has joined forces with a group of razor-sharp analysts to decipher the data, and to use it to question some of football's long-held truisms. Do umpires really favour the home side? Has goal kicking accuracy deteriorated? Is Geelong the true master of the draft? Are blonds unfairly favoured in Brownlow medal voting? And are Victorians the most passionate fans? Through a blend of entertaining storytelling and expert analysis, this book will answer more questions about footy than you ever thought to ask. Praise for Time and Space:'Brilliant, masterful' - The Guardian'Arguably one of the most important books yet written on Australian Rules football.' - Inside History'Should find its way into the hands of every coach.' - AFL Record

    The volume also includes two contemporary and conflicting reviews by Roger Hughes and Pauline Kael, a detailed glossary of nadsat and reproductions of stills from the film.

    Since 2011, more than one million visitors have read and shared Leonard's writing, making Semi-Rad.com stories some of the most viral outdoor content on the internet. Funny Shit in the Woods collects 40 of Semi-Rad's most popular stories in one volume: a single portable archive without the mouse clicks or internet searches-complete with all-new amateurish illustrations hand-drawn by the author, usually while in the front seat of a moving car. If you've ever considered the absurdity of sleeping on the ground in a place where bears live, pooping in a bag on a glacier, or trying to teach someone you love a sport that could scare them to the point of loudly threatening to kill you in front of strangers-or if you find yourself inexplicably drawn to adjust the burning logs in a campfire every two minutes, Funny Shit in the Woods will make you laugh, and might inspire you to get outside a little bit more.

    After his death, the contents of his studio, including thousands of glass negatives, were sold off for five dollars. For years the fragile negatives sat forgotten and deteriorating in cardboard boxes in an open carport. How did it happen, then, that the most implausible of events took place? That Disfarmer’s haunting portraits were retrieved from oblivion, that today they sell for upwards of $12,000 each at posh New York art galleries; his photographs proclaimed works of art by prestigious critics and journals and exhibited around the world? The story of Disfarmer’s rise to fame is a colorful, improbable, and ultimately fascinating one that involves an unlikely assortment of individuals. Would any of this have happened if a young New York photographer hadn't been so in love with a pretty model that he was willing to give up his career for her; if a preacher’s son from Arkansas hadn't spent 30 years in the Army Corps of Engineers mapping the U.S. from an airplane; if a magazine editor hadn't felt a strange and powerful connection to the work? The cast of characters includes these, plus a restless and wealthy young Chicago aristocrat and even a grandson of FDR. It’s a compelling story which reveals how these diverse people were part of a chain of events whose far-reaching consequences none of them could have foreseen, least of all the strange and reclusive genius of Heber Springs. Until now, the whole story has not been told.

    Recollections of Farrar's father are prominent throughout the stories. Ultimately, it is music and musicians that are given the most space and the final word since music has been the creative impetus and driving force for the past 35 years of his life.In writing these stories, he found a natural inclination to focus on very specific experiences; a method analogous to the songwriting process. The highlights and pivotal experiences from that musical journey are all represented as the binding thread in these stories, illustrated throughout with photography from his life. If life is a movie, then these stories are the still frames.

    These stories tell of the vision behind Dubai’s meteoric growth from a small and bustling trading port to an international metropolis at the heart of global business. They record the evolution of the United Arab Emirates from a shared ideal to a nation where more than 195 nationalities live and work in peace, harmony and prosperity. And they reveal insights from a man whose drive, determination and will to succeed have become legendary. Within these stories lies the heart of Sheikh Mohammed the statesman, the equestrian, the poet and the leader. They are written with the intent to inspire and inform new generations of readers, and to celebrate the achievements of this young and vibrant nation and the people who shaped it. This celebration of a life in service is unavoidably incomplete. As Sheikh Mohammed himself indicates, there is still so much left to do. As a record of the first fifty years alone, however, it forms part of a remarkable legacy. Other titles written by Sheikh Mohammed and published by Explorer include Zayed, Reflections on Happiness & Positivity, Flashes of Verse and Two Great Leaders.

    

    

    It focuses on walking in the divine as a lifestyle, shaping one's attitudes and worldview.