But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that.This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples.By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to:- How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief- Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for- Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions- Calculate distributions to see the range of your data- Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from themNext time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.

    Admittedly real life wasn’t like that. But only, they argued, because we didn’t have enough data to be certain.Then the cracks began to appear. It proved impossible to predict exactly how three planets orbiting each other would move. Meteorologists discovered that the weather was truly chaotic – so dependent on small variations that it could never be predicted for more than a few days out. And the final nail in the coffin was quantum theory, showing that everything in the universe has probability at its heart.That gives human beings a problem. We understand the world through patterns. Randomness and probability will always be alien to us. But it’s time to plunge into this fascinating, shadowy world, because randomness crops up everywhere. Probability and statistics are the only way to get a grip on nature’s workings. They may even seal the fate of free will and predict how the universe will end.Forget Newton’s clockwork universe. Welcome to Dice World.

    It's not just a list of "superfoods" or trendy exercises; the course takes a rigorous scientific approach to human vitality. Energy is a limited resource; learn to allocate yours in the best way possible to make the most of each day.

    "One of today's best popularizers of science." —Kirkus Reviews.Loyal readers of the monthly "Universe" essays in Natural History magazine have long recognized Neil deGrasse Tyson's talent for guiding them through the mysteries of the cosmos with stunning clarity and almost childlike enthusiasm. Here, Tyson compiles his favorite essays across a myriad of cosmic topics. The title essay introduces readers to the physics of black holes by explaining the gory details of what would happen to your body if you fell into one. "Holy Wars" examines the needless friction between science and religion in the context of historical conflicts. "The Search for Life in the Universe" explores astral life from the frontiers of astrobiology. And "Hollywood Nights" assails the movie industry's feeble efforts to get its night skies right. Known for his ability to blend content, accessibility, and humor, Tyson is a natural teacher who simplifies some of the most complex concepts in astrophysics while simultaneously sharing his infectious excitement about our universe.

    Topics covered in the book include linear equations, ratios, quadratic equations, special factorizations, complex numbers, graphing linear and quadratic equations, linear and quadratic inequalities, functions, polynomials, exponents and logarithms, absolute value, sequences and series, and much more!The text is structured to inspire the reader to explore and develop new ideas. Each section starts with problems, giving the student a chance to solve them without help before proceeding. The text then includes solutions to these problems, through which algebraic techniques are taught. Important facts and powerful problem solving approaches are highlighted throughout the text. In addition to the instructional material, the book contains well over 1000 problems.This book can serve as a complete Algebra I course, and also includes many concepts covered in Algebra II. Middle school students preparing for MATHCOUNTS, high school students preparing for the AMC, and other students seeking to master the fundamentals of algebra will find this book an instrumental part of their mathematics libraries.656About the author: Richard Rusczyk is a co-author of Art of Problem Solving, Volumes 1 and 2, the author of Art of Problem Solving's Introduction to Geometry. He was a national MATHCOUNTS participant, a USA Math Olympiad winner, and is currently director of the USA Mathematical Talent Search.

    If we get it right it will make humans almost godlike. If we get it wrong... well, extinction is not the worst possible outcome.“Surviving AI” is a concise, easy-to-read guide to what's coming, taking you through technological unemployment (the economic singularity) and the possible creation of a superintelligence (the technological singularity).Here's what some of the leading thinkers in the field have to say about it:A sober and easy-to-read review of the risks and opportunities that humanity will face from AI. Jaan Tallinn – co-founder of Skype Understanding AI – its promise and its dangers – is emerging as one of the great challenges of coming decades and this is an invaluable guide to anyone who’s interested, confused, excited or scared. David Shukman – BBC Science Editor We have recently seen a surge in the volume of scholarly analysis of this topic; Chace impressively augments that with this high-quality, more general-audience discussion. Aubrey de Grey – CSO of SENS Research Foundation; former AI researcher It's rare to see a book about the potential End of the World that is fun to read without descending into sensationalism or crass oversimplification. Ben Goertzel – chairman of Novamente LLC Calum Chace is a prescient messenger of the risks and rewards of artificial intelligence. In “Surviving AI” he has identified the most essential issues and developed them with insight and wit – so that the very framing of the questions aids our search for answers. Chace’s sensible balance between AI’s promise and peril makes “Surviving AI” an excellent primer for anyone interested in what’s happening, how we got here, and where we are headed. Kenneth Cukier – co-author of “Big Data” If you’re not thinking about AI, you’re not thinking.  “Surviving AI” combines an essential grounding in the state of the art with a survey of scenarios that will be discussed with equal vigor at cocktail parties and academic colloquia. Chris Meyer – author of “Blur”, “It’s Alive”, and “Standing on the Sun” The appearance of Calum Chace's book is of some considerable personal satisfaction to me, because it signifies the fact that the level of social awareness of the rise of massively intelligent machines has finally reached the mainstream. If you want to survive the next few decades, you cannot afford NOT to read Chace's book. Prof. Dr. Hugo de Garis – former director of the Artificial Brain Lab, Xiamen University, China “Surviving AI” is an exceptionally clear, well-researched and balanced introduction to a complex and controversial topic, and is a compelling read to boot. Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh – executive director of Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk In “Surviving AI”, Calum Chace provides a marvellously accessible guide to the swirls of controversy that surround discussion of what is likely to be the single most important event in human history - the emergence of artificial super

    But in Art & Physics, Leonard Shlain tracks their breakthroughs side by side throughout history to reveal an astonishing correlation of visions.From teh classical Greek sculptors to Andy Warhol and Jasper Johns, and from Aristotle to Einstein, aritsts have foreshadowed the discoveries of scientists, such as when Money and Cezanne intuited the coming upheaval in physics that Einstein would initiate. In this lively and colorful narrative, Leonard Shlain explores how artistic breakthroughs could have prefigured the visionary insights of physicists on so many occasions throughtout history.Provacative and original, Art & Physics is a seamless integration of the romance of art and the drama of science...and exhilarating history of ideas.

    Claims that climate change isn't settled science, that evolution is "only a theory," and that scientists are conspiring to keep the truth about vaccines from the public are staples of some politicians' rhetorical repertoire. Defenders of science often point to its discoveries (penicillin! relativity!) without explaining exactly why scientific claims are superior. In this book, Lee McIntyre argues that what distinguishes science from its rivals is what he calls "the scientific attitude"--caring about evidence and being willing to change theories on the basis of new evidence. The history of science is littered with theories that were scientific but turned out to be wrong; the scientific attitude reveals why even a failed theory can help us to understand what is special about science.McIntyre offers examples that illustrate both scientific success (a reduction in childbed fever in the nineteenth century) and failure (the flawed "discovery" of cold fusion in the twentieth century). He describes the transformation of medicine from a practice based largely on hunches into a science based on evidence; considers scientific fraud; examines the positions of ideology-driven denialists, pseudoscientists, and "skeptics" who reject scientific findings; and argues that social science, no less than natural science, should embrace the scientific attitude. McIntyre argues that the scientific attitude--the grounding of science in evidence--offers a uniquely powerful tool in the defense of science.

    And having more than one person to help decide is good because the group benefits from the collective knowledge of all of its members, and this results in better decisions. Right?Back to reality. We’ve all been involved in group decisions—and they’re hard. And they often turn out badly. Why? Many blame bad decisions on “groupthink” without a clear idea of what that term really means.Now, Nudge coauthor Cass Sunstein and leading decision-making scholar Reid Hastie shed light on the specifics of why and how group decisions go wrong—and offer tactics and lessons to help leaders avoid the pitfalls and reach better outcomes. In the first part of the book, they explain in clear and fascinating detail the distinct problems groups run into:• They often amplify, rather than correct, individual errors in judgment• They fall victim to cascade effects, as members follow what others say or do• They become polarized, adopting more extreme positions than the ones they began with• They emphasize what everybody knows instead of focusing on critical information that only a few people knowIn the second part of the book, the authors turn to straightforward methods and advice for making groups smarter. These approaches include silencing the leader so that the views of other group members can surface, rethinking rewards and incentives to encourage people to reveal their own knowledge, thoughtfully assigning roles that are aligned with people’s unique strengths, and more.With examples from a broad range of organizations—from Google to the CIA—and written in an engaging and witty style, Wiser will not only enlighten you; it will help your team and your organization make better decisions—decisions that lead to greater success.

    

    students on international comparisons of mathematics competency. Paradoxically, Chinese teachers receive far less education than U.S. teachers--11 to 12 years of schooling versus 16 to 18 years of schooling.Studies of U.S. teacher knowledge often document insufficient subject matter knowledge in mathematics. But, they give few examples of the knowledge teachers need to support teaching, particularly the kind of teaching demanded by recent reforms in mathematics education.This book describes the nature and development of the "profound understanding of fundamental mathematics" that elementary teachers need to become accomplished mathematics teachers, and suggests why such teaching knowledge is much more common in China than the United States, despite the fact that Chinese teachers have less formal education than their U.S. counterparts.The studies described in this book suggest that Chinese teachers begin their teaching careers with a better understanding of elementary mathematics than that of most U.S. elementary teachers. Their understanding of the mathematics they teach and--equally important--of the ways that elementary mathematics can be presented to students, continues to grow throughout their professional lives.Teaching conditions in the United States, unlike those in China, militate against the development of elementary teachers' mathematical knowledge and its organization for teaching. The concluding chapter of the book suggests changes in teacher preparation, teacher support, and mathematics education research that might allow teachers in the United States to attain profound understanding of fundamental mathematics.

    Once we become aware of this, we start seeing them everywhere—in ads, apps, political debates, legal arguments, logos, and euphemisms, to name just a few. At their very best, analogies inspire new ways of thinking, enable invention, and motivate people to action. Unfortunately, not every analogy that rings true is true. That’s why, at their worst, analogies can deceive, manipulate, or mislead us into disaster. The challenge? Spotting the difference before it’s too late.Rich with engaging stories, surprising examples, and a practical method to evaluate the truth or effectiveness of any analogy, Shortcut will improve critical thinking, enhance creativity, and offer readers a fresh approach to resolving some of today’s most intractable challenges.

    It is highly recommended for anyone planning to study advanced analysis, e.g., complex variables, differential equations, Fourier analysis, numerical analysis, several variable calculus, and statistics. It is also recommended for future secondary school teachers. A limited number of concepts involving the real line and functions on the real line are studied. Many abstract ideas, such as metric spaces and ordered systems, are avoided. The least upper bound property is taken as an axiom and the order properties of the real line are exploited throughout. A thorough treatment of sequences of numbers is used as a basis for studying standard calculus topics. Optional sections invite students to study such topics as metric spaces and Riemann-Stieltjes integrals.

    And in his multi-million download podcast, High Performance, he teams up with Professor Damian Hughes to examine the secrets of the world's highest-performing people.Now, Jake and Damian reveal how we can all become high performers. Drawing on interviews with leading sportspeople and entrepreneurs, they uncover the eight hidden principles that drive high performers to success: from taking absolute responsibility for their situation, to working out their non-negotiable 'trademark behaviours', to getting the very best out of their teammates. And they draw on cutting-edge psychology to reveal how to apply these principles in our day-to-day lives - whether on the pitch, in our careers, or at home.You too can harness the secrets of high performance. This book explains how.Drawing on interviews with: Ben Ainslie | Steven Bartlett | Lily Cole | Tom Daley | Rio Ferdinand | Steven Gerrard | Kelly Holmes | Steph Houghton | Chris Hoy | Eddie Jones | Kelly Jones | Siya Kolisi | Frank Lampard | Jo Malone | Matthew McConaughey | Ant Middleton | Tracey Neville | Phil Neville | Robin Van Persie | Nims Purja | Mauricio Pochettino | Jonny Wilkinson | Clive Woodward | and many more . . .

    Lorentz.