Discovered by an 18th century mathematician and preacher, Bayes' rule is a cornerstone of modern probability theory. In this richly illustrated book, intuitive visual representations of real-world examples are used to show how Bayes' rule is actually a form of commonsense reasoning. The tutorial style of writing, combined with a comprehensive glossary, makes this an ideal primer for novices who wish to gain an intuitive understanding of Bayesian analysis. As an aid to understanding, online computer code (in MatLab, Python and R) reproduces key numerical results and diagrams.Stone's book is renowned for its visually engaging style of presentation, which stems from teaching Bayes' rule to psychology students for over 10 years as a university lecturer.

    Explaining how, why, and when the techniques can be expected to work, the Seventh Edition places an even greater emphasis on building readers' intuition to help them understand why the techniques presented work in general, and why, in some situations, they fail. Applied problems from diverse areas, such as engineering and physical, computer, and biological sciences, are provided so readers can understand how numerical methods are used in real-life situations. The Seventh Edition has been updated and now addresses the evolving use of technology, incorporating it whenever appropriate.

    The Nephilim. Does the bible really talk about Giants? Did they really exist?The Truth and The Lie series. There are so many interesting things in the Bible that much of our modern world doesn’t even realize are there. We are going to explore many of these areas in this series. We will search for the truth and the reality of what the word of God really says, as well as addressing the misconceptions that are held about it in our modern days. The word of God contains the reality of the scientific creation that is extravagantly miraculous and still completely understandable. We will be Exploring The truth about biblical giants. The reality of fallen angels. Who is Lucifer really? Is there really good and evil? What did Jesus (Yeshua) tell us to be watching for? Can we actually know what is “truth?” If The Word Of God Is True… That Changes Everything!What if the Bible isn’t just a seemingly quaint collection of myths and self-righteous moral codes? What if it isn’t an antiquated tribal religious document like any other primitive myth? And what if it isn’t a simplistic story of primitive people trying to understand their world, a people who we judgingly suppose were without the benefit of our modern science and unable to have our modern insight? And what if this modern insight is not what it is supposed to be? We Need To Know! Where did everything come from? Who is really in charge? How old is the earth? Is there more in the bible than I’ve been told? What about the other ancient cultures?” Modern atheistic science freely admits that there is so much about the universe we don’t know, and yet can’t even conceive that there is something beyond us that is responsible for all this. Our modern science is beginning to take a peek into the unseen like never before. Quantum and dimensional physics shows us that there is indeed a supernatural realm - other dimensions of existence! The further science explores, the more it becomes apparent that the universe is more like a grand thought than a grand thing. All we see is made from what we cannot see - exactly as the Bible has maintained from the beginning. The reality of every new discovery points more and more towards a highly complex interwoven dimensional reality that is closer to a digital hologram than is comfortable to admit. We know that time is part of the space time matter realm we occupy and that it has a beginning and an end, that there is more beyond time. YHVH, Elohim God, exists outside of time. Yet science isn’t likely to offer any forthcoming admission to this possibility anytime soon.Yes, if it is true, if there is one creator God, the God of the Bible, then that changes everything! We will explore the fascinating reality that the word of God is true. It explains everything and brings our world - back - into a perspective that makes sense. It is scientifically accurate, it is realistically possible, and it is an amazing reality! You Will Learn The Truth. The truth about world history! What we have been taught isn’t all there is. The truth about ancient culture, Their legends and myths. The truth about how everything really got here The reality about the players behind world events The true existence of a supernatural world, proven by science.

    His night would start out much like any other, as he stops off for a beer or two after work, and to meet up with friends if they’re there that night.But his life is turned upside down, as the most beautiful woman he’d ever laid eyes on walks into the bar scantily clad and right up to him, and he learns he isn’t quite as human as he’d always thought. In fact, he was a demigod, and the woman that’s doing his father a favor… well, she’s a goddess. The goddess of love, pleasure, beauty, and fertility in fact, and she needs a champion. It all seems pretty insane to him even as he accepts, especially the part about his godly stepmother wanting him dead. It only gets crazier from there and the insane ride never stops. He hopes it’ll slow down soon, even though a lot of it is insanely enjoyable and beyond surreal, if not his mind can always catch up when he’s dead…Author Warning: This is an Urban Fantasy adventure featuring a mixed monster girl and demigoddess harem and polyamory theme, with some MF to MFF scenes of an explicit nature. If that’s not your cup of tea, don’t read this book. You have been warned. This is also loosely based on Greek mythology. I’m sure I got some things wrong, and I know I made some changes to the myths fit my story.