Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    Designed by renowned graphic artist Fabien Baron to be the ultimate makeup how-to book, Makeup Your Mind is a comprehensive compilation of Before and After photographs, each containing instructional acetate overlays, covering almost every face type, complexion, eye color, and facial feature found on the runway today. Makeup Your Mind is also a revolutionary instruction manual on makeup from one of the most respected and imitated cosmetics artists in fashion today: a makeup book designed and constructed as a durable paperback companion suitable for the vanity or for the car, sliding in and out of its attractive hardcover binder as needed, containing precise instructional guides on clear plastic overlays indicating exactly what goes where, allowing you to see the finished effect for perfect results. Summarizing each chapter on "Eyes", "Lips", "Neutrals", "Shimmer", "Monochrome and Suntan", "Pastels", Color, and "Skincare" are François Nars’ trademarked guidelines on the technique of applying makeup for that dazzling NARS look. Showcasing the famous NARS look are today’s top models, including Karen Elson, Maggie Rizer, Naomi Campbell, Devon Aoki, Trish Goff, Erin O’Connor, Sophie Dahl, May Anderson, Ling, Aurelie, Missy Rayder, Elsa, Caroline Ribero, Eva Herzagova, and many others. Makeup Your Mind features these women and more in sixty-three stunning Before and After pictures. All of the models were shot sans makeup for the Before pictures, displaying their bare-naked faces replete with imperfections and idiosyncrasies. Their transformations in the After pictures span from natural and elegant to fun and outrageous. In superb four-color photographs and brilliant acetate instructional guides, Makeup Your Mind demonstrates how makeup can minimize flaws and maximize beauty potential for every woman.

    The vast majority of the material here is new, thanks to remembrances from Will.i.am, Smokey Robinson, Quincy Jones, Stevie Wonder, Sheryl Crow, Slash, Usher, LA Reid, Brooke Shields, Kenny Gamble, Wyclef Jean, Ne-Yo, Martin Scorsese, Glen Ballard, John Landis, plus the Rolling Stone staff. Also included are reprints of two classic Rolling Stone cover stories, one from 1973 by Ben Fong-Torres, and a 1983 piece by Gerri Hershey.

    Sometimes funny, sometimes poignant, this is the story of a young woman's accidental career as a cocktail lounge piano player, and the adventures and encounters that follow.