Essentially, you are estimating a probability, but then updating that estimate based on other things that you know. This book is designed to give you an intuitive understanding of how to use Bayes Theorem. It starts with the definition of what Bayes Theorem is, but the focus of the book is on providing examples that you can follow and duplicate. Most of the examples are calculated in Excel, which is useful for updating probability if you have dozens or hundreds of data points to roll in.

    

    These stars allegedly use Illuminati and satanic symbolism in their music videos and on their clothes that goes unnoticed by those not “in the know.”Since these stars appear in our livings rooms on family friendly mainstream shows like Good Morning America, Ellen, and dozens of others—and are loved by virtually all the kids—they couldn’t possibly have anything to do with the infamous Illuminati or anything “satanic,” could they? Some famous musicians have even publicly denounced the Illuminati in interviews or songs.Illuminati in the Music Industry takes a close look at some of today’s hottest stars and decodes the secret symbols, song lyrics, and separates the facts from the fiction in this fascinating topic. You may never see your favorite musicians the same way ever again. Includes 50 photographs.Discover why so many artists are promoting the Illuminati as the secret to success. Why an aspiring rapper in Virginia shot his friend as an “Illuminati sacrifice” hoping it would help him become rich and famous. How and why the founder of BET Black Entertainment Television became the first African American billionaire.Why popular female pop stars like Rihanna, Christina Aguilera, Kesha and others are promoting Satanism as cool, something that was once only seen in heavy metal and rock and roll bands. Some musicians like Korn’s singer Jonathan Davis, rapper MC Hammer, Megadeth’s frontman Dave Mustaine and others, have all denounced the Illuminati and artists promoting them. Les Claypool, singer of Primus wrote a song about the Bohemian Grove.Muse singer Matt Bellamy recants his belief that 9/11 was an inside job after getting a taste of mainstream success with his album, The Resistance. Bono said he attended an Illuminati meeting with other celebrities. Was he joking or serious?Why rap and hip hop is filled with Illuminati puppets and wannabes more than other genres of music.Learn about media effects, the power of celebrity, what the externalization of the hierarchy means and how you can break free from the mental enslavement of mainstream media and music. By the author of The Illuminati: Facts & Fiction-About the Author-Mark Dice is a media analyst, author, and political activist who, in an entertaining and educational way, gets people to question our celebrity obsessed culture and the role the mainstream media and elite secret societies play in shaping our lives. Mark's YouTube channel has received over 150 million views and his viral videos have been mentioned on the Fox News Channel, CNN, the Drudge Report, TMZ, the New York Daily News, the New York Post, and other media outlets around the world.He has been featured on various television shows including the History Channel's Decoded and America's Book of Secrets, Conspiracy Theory with Jesse Ventura, Secret Societies of Hollywood on E! Channel, America Declassified on the Travel Channel, and is a frequent guest on Coast to Coast AM, The Alex Jones Show, and more.Mark Dice is the author of several popular books on secret societies and conspiracies, including The Illuminati in Hollywood, Big Brother: The Orwellian Nightmare Come True, The New World Order, Facts & Fiction, Inside the Illuminat

    Featuring coverage of the Arduino Uno, Leonardo, and Due boards, Programming Arduino Next Steps: Going Further with Sketches shows you how to use interrupts, manage memory, program for the Internet, maximize serial communications, perform digital signal processing, and much more. All of the 75+ example sketches featured in the book are available for download.Learn advanced Arduino programming techniques, including how to:Use hardware and timer interruptsBoost performance and speed by writing time-efficient sketchesMinimize power consumption and memory usageInterface with different types of serial busses, including I2C, 1-Wire, SPI, and TTL SerialUse Arduino with USB, including the keyboard and mouse emulation features of the Leonardo and Due boardsProgram Arduino for the InternetPerform digital signal processingAccomplish more than one task at a time--without multi-threadingCreate and release your own code library

    This spell book contains an introduction to magic and an explanation of how it relates to the real world. Using this book, you can follow a journey of magical discovery. The magic spells are fun and easy to use, and can be applied to many situations. May you use it wisely!

    Who Stole My Spandex? is a witty selection of stories from Doyle’s madcap world of menopausal pitfalls, wardrobe malfunctions, and a family full of pranksters. This clever compilation includes laugh-out-loud pieces like "Queen of Klutz,” "One Size Fits None," and "Hands off my Egg Roll!" From couples' colonoscopies to nightmare holidays to disappearing spandex, no topic—no matter how crazy or unimaginable—is too taboo. With a heavy dose of self-deprecating humor, and a dash of sentiment, this marvelous collection of anecdotes will resonate with anyone who’s ever felt the call of nature at exactly the wrong time. Welcome to the nuthouse that Marcia Kester Doyle calls home.

    Oboe entailed the pilot flying dead straight and level for ten minutes on the attack run. Suddenly a tremendous flash lit up the sky about 50 yards ahead of our nose and exactly at our altitude. Within a tenth of a second we were through the cloud of dirty yellowish-brown smoke and into the blackness beyond. I shall never forget the spontaneous reaction of both my pilot and myself. We turned our heads slowly and looked long and deep into one anothers eyes - no word was spoken - no words were needed.The Mosquito was probably World War IIs most versatile combat aircraft. This book contains hundreds of firsthand accounts from many of the twoman crews who flew in them; pilots and navigators. It portrays the dramatic experiences of flying in its many roles as pathfinder, night fighter, reconnaissance aircraft, precision bombing and low-level ground attack aircraft. It describes many of the RAFs most audacious raids on prime but difficult targets where carpet bombing by heavy bombers was likely to be ineffective and cause unnecessary casualties to civilians. It is a remarkable record of the aircraft and the men that flew them.

    . . . Put this one on your must-have list if you have software, love software, hate programmers, or even ARE a programmer, because Mr. Platt (who teaches programming) has set out to puncture the bloated egos of all those who think that just because they can write a program, they can make it easy to use. . . . This book is funny, but it is also an important wake-up call for software companies that want to reduce the size of their customer support bills. If you were ever stuck for an answer to the question, 'Why do good programmers make such awful software?' this book holds the answer."--John McCormick, Locksmith columnist, TechRepublic.com "I must say first, I don't get many computing manuscripts that make me laugh out loud. Between the laughs, Dave Platt delivers some very interesting insight and perspective, all in a lucid and engaging style. I don't get much of that either!"--Henry Leitner, assistant dean for information technology andsenior lecturer on computer science, Harvard University "A riotous book for all of us downtrodden computer users, written in language that we understand."--Stacy Baratelli, author's barber "David's unique take on the problems that bedevil software creation made me think about the process in new ways. If you care about the quality of the software you create or use, read this book."--Dave Chappell, principal, Chappell & Associates "I began to read it in my office but stopped before I reached the bottom of the first page. I couldn't keep a grin off my face! I'll enjoy it after I go back home and find a safe place to read."--Tsukasa Makino, IT manager "David explains, in terms that my mother-in-law can understand, why the software we use today can be so frustrating, even dangerous at times, and gives us some real ideas on what we can do about it."--Jim Brosseau, Clarrus Consulting Group, Inc. A Book for Anyone Who Uses a Computer Today...and Just Wants to Scream! Today's software sucks. There's no other good way to say it. It's unsafe, allowing criminal programs to creep through the Internet wires into our very bedrooms. It's unreliable, crashing when we need it most, wiping out hours or days of work with no way to get it back. And it's hard to use, requiring large amounts of head-banging to figure out the simplest operations.It's no secret that software sucks. You know that from personal experience, whether you use computers for work or personal tasks. In this book, programming insider David Platt explains why that's the case and, more importantly, why it doesn't have to be that way. And he explains it in plain, jargon-free English that's a joy to read, using real-world examples with which you're already familiar. In the end, he suggests what you, as a typical user, without a technical background, can do about this sad state of our software--how you, as an informed consumer, don't have to take the abuse that bad software dishes out.As you might expect from the book's title, Dave's expose is laced with humor--sometimes outrageous, but always dead on. You'll laugh out loud as you recall incidents with your own software that made you cry. You'll slap your thigh with the same hand that so often pounded your computer desk and wished it was a bad programmer's face. But Dave hasn't written this book just for laughs. He's written it to give long-overdue voice to your own discovery--that software does, indeed, suck, but it shouldn't.

     Written with Sarah Rayner's trademark warmth and humour, this new edition of Making Friends with the Menopause has been updated to reflect the latest National Institute for Health and Care guidelines on diagnosis and management of the menopause. Together with Dr Patrick Fitzgerald, she explores why stopping menstruating causes such profound chemical changes in the body, leading us to react in a myriad of ways physically and mentally. There is practical advice on hot flushes and night sweats, anxiety and mood swings, muscular aches and loss of libido, early-onset menopause, hysterectomy and more, plus a simple explanation of each stage of the menopause so you'll know what to expect in the years before, during and after. You’ll find details of the treatment options available and their pros and cons, together with tips and insights from women keen to share their wisdom on a subject many still find hard to talk about. Whether you’re worried about feeling invisible, weight gain or loss of fertility, or simply want to take care of yourself well, knowledge is power, and Making Friends with the Menopause will give you a greater understanding of the process, so you can enjoy your body and your sexuality as you age. * From the author of the international bestselling novel One Moment, One Morning * And the word-of-mouth success Making Friends with Anxiety, a warm, supportive book to ease worry and panic * Includes advice on all the major health issues that can arise as a result of hormone change * Thoroughly researched and bang-up-to-date * Includes traditional and complementary medicine * Gives guidance on how to get the most from your GP appointments and finding good alternative practitioners * Useful links throughout, plus details of helplines and recommended reads * Fully illustrated with photographs by the author * Ongoing online support group available PRAISE FOR MAKING FRIENDS WITH ANXIETY 'Simple, lucid advice on how to accept your anxiety' Matt Haig, bestselling author of Reasons to Stay Alive 'Reads like chatting with an old friend; one with wit, wisdom and experience' ,Brighton and Hove Independent PRAISE FOR SARAH RAYNER: ‘Explores an emotive subject with great sensitivity’ Sunday Express ‘You'll want to inhale it in one breath' Easy Living 'Brilliant... Warm and approachable' Essentials ‘Carefully crafted and empathetic’ The Sunday Times ‘Brilliant…Warm and approachable’ Essentials ‘A sympathetic insight into the causes and effects of mental ill-health as it affects ordinary people. Powerful’ My Weekly

    A war that ranges from the dry bushveld of Southern Africa to the capitals of Europe and the Middle East, to the sweltering cities of Southeast Asia. Worth more than gold, heroin or cocaine, the rhino's horn, meant for protection, is the catalyst behind their relentless struggle to save this species from eventual extinction.

    His heroic legacy of being shot down while preparing to rescue a fallen teammate began long before this tragic day.An Apache aviator said of Mark's final battle: ..."I have never witnessed such an act of heroism in my three years of fighting in combat. I have over 2,700 hours total time with 1,500 hours of combat time in both Iraq and Afghanistan...JAG 28 continued to advance on the enemy while taking intense enemy fire, and continuously fired his weapon in an attempt to get to his fallen teammate and destroy the enemy."Mark chose to enlist in the Air Force as a Special Operations Combat Controller after he received his Bachelor's degree from The University of Alabama. Because of his above average grades and near-photographic memory, his Business Finance degree would have done him well. But, he felt a higher calling; one that put him between us and the enemies bent on our destruction.Even though he had pledged that freedom must be preserved, his greatest desire was to marry the right girl and have a family-Mark never got that chance. Instead he selflessly gave his life for the country he loved.Since Mark's death, his family's eyes and hearts have been opened to multiple examples of selflessness and patriotism by meeting his teammates and leaders in the military. The family has witnessed first-hand the ability for them to turn off their stern, professional personae and turn on compassion, love, support and acceptance. The author feels a strong desire to Honor our Heroes. This book highlights one hero, SrA Mark A. Forester, and also helps recognize many other men and women who volunteer to fight for our freedom.My Brother in Arms is not a memorial in print, but a biography for continuing Mark's legacy of perseverance, determination and accomplishing our missions on earth. We each have different missions, but what's important is for us to recognize ours and work to accomplish it. In the end, don't we all want to go out while moving forward?

    He is also the Head Teaching Fellow for the most popular course at Harvard, “Positive Psychology,” which is taken by more than 1,000 students per semester and led by Professor Tal Ben-Shahar.  Shawn received his B.A. in English from Harvard and a Master’s from Harvard Divinity School in Christian and Buddhist Ethics. Part of his interest in positive psychology stems from a troubling fact: studies have shown that many of Harvard’s undergraduates suffer from depression at some point in their college careers. One Day University is a unique educational experience  that brings intellectuals together to learn from top rated professors at Yale, Harvard, Stanford, Columbia and other prestigious universities. Chosen for their excellent teaching abilities as rated by their students, these great thinkers represent a wide variety of academic disciplines and share their knowledge in 60 minute, highly entertaining lectures. Offering the ability to learn the highlights of academic thought in world affairs, politics, history, science, art, and more; One Day University is a way to truly enjoy the thrill of learning without the pressures of tests and the high price tag of college tuition. Once reserved only for students who could attend the lectures in New York and other major cities, One Day University courses are now available to everyone from the comfort of their own homes in Kindle format.

     Author Paul Teutul, Jr., is arguably the most creative builder of custom "chopper" motorcycles in the world. His talents were revealed to millions of TV viewers worldwide on American Chopper, as well as later on a spinoff series, American Chopper Senior vs Junior. The Build gives the reader at Paul Jr.'s life behind the camera, which included volcanic conflict with his father and business mentor, Paul Sr. Using his own story of improbable success as an illustration, Paul Jr. offers insights on how anyone can find and activate often hidden talents. In a charming, often humorous way, The Build is a rallying cry to unleash God-designed creativity and live life to the fullest.

    Evangelical Christians living in booming Austin, Texas, in the mid-1990s, they were respected leaders in their church and community. As Roger diligently worked his way up the high-tech corporate ladder, Penny kept a pristine home and coached similarly devout young women on how to be perfect wives. But on a windy March evening, this godly woman met the devil head-on. And when the police discovered her lifeless body—repeatedly bludgeoned with a lead pipe, then mutilated with a knife from her own spotless kitchen—they were shocked by the rage and savagery behind her slaying.The Good Wife is a startling true story of greed, hatred, betrayal, and an unimaginable murder—a tale of the dark decay that can be hidden behind a facade of saintliness when a marriage seemingly made in heaven descends into hell.

    . . The possibility of encountering more NVA troops moving through our area was high, as we had pushed a very great stick into their nest. But our demonstrated ability to find the enemy and wait for the most opportune time to hit him, while remaining totally undetected, gave us reason to be pleased. It also gave the NVA reason for concern.In Force Recon Diary, 1970, Bruce "Doc" Norton offers a harrowing sequel to his best-selling Force Recon Diary, 1969, continuing the true story of a navy corpsman who became a Force Recon Team Leader behind enemy lines in the jungles of Vietnam. In the midst of a war set deep in the jungle, the Force Recon Marines often found themselves lacking food, drinkable water, explosives, or even enough radio batteries. Armed with only their own courage, skills, and loyalty to their brothers in arms, the Marines used stealth and cunning to survive in the harsh conditions of Vietnam, where one mistake could prove fatal not just for an individual Marine, but for the entire unit."