However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice-freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You'll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you've mastered these techniques, you'll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes - Learning the Bayesian "state of mind" and its practical implications - Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference - Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses - Building and debugging models with PyMC - Testing your model's "goodness of fit" - Opening the "black box" of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works - Leveraging the power of the "Law of Large Numbers" - Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning - Using loss functions to measure an estimate's weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes - Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size - Overcoming the "exploration versus exploitation" dilemma: deciding when "pretty good" is good enough - Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing - Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.

    "More concretely," the authors explain, "it is the controlled manipulation of mathematical formulas, using a collection of techniques for solving problems."

    . ." and "The data bear this out. . . ." But the field of statistics is not just about data. Statistics is the entire process involved in gathering evidence to answer questions about the world, in cases where that evidence happens to be numerical data. Statistics For Dummies is for everyone who wants to sort through and evaluate the incredible amount of statistical information that comes to them on a daily basis. (You know the stuff: charts, graphs, tables, as well as headlines that talk about the results of the latest poll, survey, experiment, or other scientific study.) This book arms you with the ability to decipher and make important decisions about statistical results, being ever aware of the ways in which people can mislead you with statistics. Get the inside scoop on number-crunching nuances, plus insight into how you canDetermine the odds Calculate a standard score Find the margin of error Recognize the impact of polls Establish criteria for a good survey Make informed decisions about experiments This down-to-earth reference is chock-full of real examples from real sources that are relevant to your everyday life: from the latest medical breakthroughs, crime studies, and population trends to surveys on Internet dating, cell phone use, and the worst cars of the millennium. Statistics For Dummies departs from traditional statistics texts, references, supplement books, and study guides in the following ways:Practical and intuitive explanations of statistical concepts, ideas, techniques, formulas, and calculations. Clear and concise step-by-step procedures that intuitively explain how to work through statistics problems. Upfront and honest answers to your questions like, "What does this really mean?" and "When and how I will ever use this?" Chances are, Statistics For Dummies will be your No. 1 resource for discovering how numerical data figures into your corner of the universe.

    You proceed at your own rate and any difficulties you may encounter are resolved before you move on to the next topic. With a step-by-step programmed approach that is complemented by hundreds of worked examples and exercises, Advanced Engineering Mathematics is ideal as an on-the-job reference for professionals or as a self-study guide for students.Uses a unique technique-oriented approach that takes the reader through each topic step-by-step.Features a wealth of worked examples and progressively more challenging exercises.Contains Test Exercises, Learning Outcomes, Further Problems, and Can You? Checklists to guide and enhance learning and comprehension.Expanded coverage includes new chapters on Z Transforms, Fourier Transforms, Numerical Solutions of Partial Differential Equations, and more Complex Numbers.Includes a new chapter, Introduction to Invariant Linear Systems, and new material on difference equations integrated into the Z transforms chapter.

    Scholars and students need to be able to analyze, design and curate information into useful tools of communication, insight and understanding. This book is the starting point in learning the process and skills of data visualization, teaching the concepts and skills of how to present data and inspiring effective visual design. Benefits of this book: A flexible step-by-step journey that equips you to achieve great data visualization.A curated collection of classic and contemporary examples, giving illustrations of good and bad practice Examples on every page to give creative inspiration Illustrations of good and bad practice show you how to critically evaluate and improve your own work Advice and experience from the best designers in the field Loads of online practical help, checklists, case studies and exercises make this the most comprehensive text available

    Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "na�ve empiricism," but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. - The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. - Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. - Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. - Inequality estimators (Gini or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. - Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions. - Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.

    Many successful applications of machine learning exist already, including systems that analyze past sales data to predict customer behavior, recognize faces or spoken speech, optimize robot behavior so that a task can be completed using minimum resources, and extract knowledge from bioinformatics data. "Introduction to Machine Learning" is a comprehensive textbook on the subject, covering a broad array of topics not usually included in introductory machine learning texts. It discusses many methods based in different fields, including statistics, pattern recognition, neural networks, artificial intelligence, signal processing, control, and data mining, in order to present a unified treatment of machine learning problems and solutions. All learning algorithms are explained so that the student can easily move from the equations in the book to a computer program. The book can be used by advanced undergraduates and graduate students who have completed courses in computer programming, probability, calculus, and linear algebra. It will also be of interest to engineers in the field who are concerned with the application of machine learning methods.After an introduction that defines machine learning and gives examples of machine learning applications, the book covers supervised learning, Bayesian decision theory, parametric methods, multivariate methods, dimensionality reduction, clustering, nonparametric methods, decision trees, linear discrimination, multilayer perceptrons, local models, hidden Markov models, assessing and comparing classification algorithms, combining multiple learners, and reinforcement learning.

    The algorithms you'll use most often as a programmer have already been discovered, tested, and proven. If you want to take a hard pass on Knuth's brilliant but impenetrable theories and the dense multi-page proofs you'll find in most textbooks, this is the book for you. This fully-illustrated and engaging guide makes it easy for you to learn how to use algorithms effectively in your own programs.Grokking Algorithms is a disarming take on a core computer science topic. In it, you'll learn how to apply common algorithms to the practical problems you face in day-to-day life as a programmer. You'll start with problems like sorting and searching. As you build up your skills in thinking algorithmically, you'll tackle more complex concerns such as data compression or artificial intelligence. Whether you're writing business software, video games, mobile apps, or system utilities, you'll learn algorithmic techniques for solving problems that you thought were out of your grasp. For example, you'll be able to:Write a spell checker using graph algorithmsUnderstand how data compression works using Huffman codingIdentify problems that take too long to solve with naive algorithms, and attack them with algorithms that give you an approximate answer insteadEach carefully-presented example includes helpful diagrams and fully-annotated code samples in Python. By the end of this book, you will know some of the most widely applicable algorithms as well as how and when to use them.

    In an instructive and conversational tone, Cody clearly explains how to program SAS, illustrating with one or more real-life examples and giving a detailed description of how the program works.

    With a new introduction, three new chapters, modernized language and methods throughout, and an appendix of challenging and enjoyable practice problems, Calculus Made Easy has been thoroughly updated for the modern reader.

    It is designed as a reference for students in the physical sciences and engineering.

    This is a very old science and its gems have lost their charm for us through everyday use. We have tried in this book to refresh them for you. The main part of the book is made up of problems. The best way to deal with them is: Solve the problem by yourself - compare your solution with the solution in the book (if it exists) - go to the next problem. However, if you have difficulties solving a problem (and some of them are quite difficult), you may read the hint or start to read the solution. If there is no solution in the book for some problem, you may skip it (it is not heavily used in the sequel) and return to it later. The book is divided into sections devoted to different topics. Some of them are very short, others are rather long. Of course, you know arithmetic pretty well. However, we shall go through it once more, starting with easy things. 2 Exchange of terms in addition Let's add 3 and 5: 3+5=8. And now change the order: 5+3=8. We get the same result. Adding three apples to five apples is the same as adding five apples to three - apples do not disappear and we get eight of them in both cases. 3 Exchange of terms in multiplication Multiplication has a similar property. But let us first agree on notation.

    With this book, you'll learn how to load data, assemble and disassemble data objects, navigate R's environment system, write your own functions, and use all of R's programming tools.RStudio Master Instructor Garrett Grolemund not only teaches you how to program, but also shows you how to get more from R than just visualizing and modeling data. You'll gain valuable programming skills and support your work as a data scientist at the same time.Work hands-on with three practical data analysis projects based on casino gamesStore, retrieve, and change data values in your computer's memoryWrite programs and simulations that outperform those written by typical R usersUse R programming tools such as if else statements, for loops, and S3 classesLearn how to write lightning-fast vectorized R codeTake advantage of R's package system and debugging toolsPractice and apply R programming concepts as you learn them

    R in a Nutshell provides a quick and practical way to learn this increasingly popular open source language and environment. You'll not only learn how to program in R, but also how to find the right user-contributed R packages for statistical modeling, visualization, and bioinformatics.The author introduces you to the R environment, including the R graphical user interface and console, and takes you through the fundamentals of the object-oriented R language. Then, through a variety of practical examples from medicine, business, and sports, you'll learn how you can use this remarkable tool to solve your own data analysis problems.Understand the basics of the language, including the nature of R objectsLearn how to write R functions and build your own packagesWork with data through visualization, statistical analysis, and other methodsExplore the wealth of packages contributed by the R communityBecome familiar with the lattice graphics package for high-level data visualizationLearn about bioinformatics packages provided by Bioconductor"I am excited about this book. R in a Nutshell is a great introduction to R, as well as a comprehensive reference for using R in data analytics and visualization. Adler provides 'real world' examples, practical advice, and scripts, making it accessible to anyone working with data, not just professional statisticians."

    The R language provides everything you need to do statistical work, but its structure can be difficult to master. This collection of concise, task-oriented recipes makes you productive with R immediately, with solutions ranging from basic tasks to input and output, general statistics, graphics, and linear regression.Each recipe addresses a specific problem, with a discussion that explains the solution and offers insight into how it works. If you're a beginner, R Cookbook will help get you started. If you're an experienced data programmer, it will jog your memory and expand your horizons. You'll get the job done faster and learn more about R in the process.Create vectors, handle variables, and perform other basic functionsInput and output dataTackle data structures such as matrices, lists, factors, and data framesWork with probability, probability distributions, and random variablesCalculate statistics and confidence intervals, and perform statistical testsCreate a variety of graphic displaysBuild statistical models with linear regressions and analysis of variance (ANOVA)Explore advanced statistical techniques, such as finding clusters in your dataWonderfully readable, R Cookbook serves not only as a solutions manual of sorts, but as a truly enjoyable way to explore the R language--one practical example at a time.--Jeffrey Ryan, software consultant and R package author