The framework of probabilistic graphical models, presented in this book, provides a general approach for this task. The approach is model-based, allowing interpretable models to be constructed and then manipulated by reasoning algorithms. These models can also be learned automatically from data, allowing the approach to be used in cases where manually constructing a model is difficult or even impossible. Because uncertainty is an inescapable aspect of most real-world applications, the book focuses on probabilistic models, which make the uncertainty explicit and provide models that are more faithful to reality.Probabilistic Graphical Models discusses a variety of models, spanning Bayesian networks, undirected Markov networks, discrete and continuous models, and extensions to deal with dynamical systems and relational data. For each class of models, the text describes the three fundamental cornerstones: representation, inference, and learning, presenting both basic concepts and advanced techniques. Finally, the book considers the use of the proposed framework for causal reasoning and decision making under uncertainty. The main text in each chapter provides the detailed technical development of the key ideas. Most chapters also include boxes with additional material: skill boxes, which describe techniques; case study boxes, which discuss empirical cases related to the approach described in the text, including applications in computer vision, robotics, natural language understanding, and computational biology; and concept boxes, which present significant concepts drawn from the material in the chapter. Instructors (and readers) can group chapters in various combinations, from core topics to more technically advanced material, to suit their particular needs.

    The book documents the adverse environmental effects caused by the indiscriminate use of pesticides. Carson accused the chemical industry of spreading disinformation, and public officials of accepting the industry's marketing claims unquestioningly.The book appeared in September 1962 and the outcry that followed its publication forced the banning of DDT and spurred revolutionary changes in the laws affecting our air, land, and water. Carson’s book was instrumental in launching the environmental movement.

    Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today's model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work.The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation.By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling.Web ResourceThe book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author's website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

    Discovered by an 18th century mathematician and preacher, Bayes' rule is a cornerstone of modern probability theory. In this richly illustrated book, intuitive visual representations of real-world examples are used to show how Bayes' rule is actually a form of commonsense reasoning. The tutorial style of writing, combined with a comprehensive glossary, makes this an ideal primer for novices who wish to gain an intuitive understanding of Bayesian analysis. As an aid to understanding, online computer code (in MatLab, Python and R) reproduces key numerical results and diagrams.Stone's book is renowned for its visually engaging style of presentation, which stems from teaching Bayes' rule to psychology students for over 10 years as a university lecturer.

    I also hope that it will serve as a useful reference too for the many workers engaged in one type of solid state research activity or another, who may be without formal training in the subject.

    Its unique 'Frontiers' chapters cover materials science, nanotechnology, catalysis, and biological inorganic chemistry, and have been fully updated to reflect advances in these key areas of contemporary research and industrial application.

    Everything in Its Place is a celebration of Sacks's myriad interests, all told with his characteristic compassion, erudition, and luminous prose. From the celebrated case history of Spalding Gray that appeared in The New Yorker four months before his death to reflections on mental asylums; from piercing accounts of Schizophrenia to a reminiscence of Robin Williams; from the riveting tale of a medical colleague falling victim to Alzheimer's to the cinematography of Michael Powell, this volume celebrates and reflects the wondrous curiosity of Oliver Sacks.

    Unnikrishna Pillai of Polytechnic University. The book is intended for a senior/graduate level course in probability and is aimed at students in electrical engineering, math, and physics departments. The authors' approach is to develop the subject of probability theory and stochastic processes as a deductive discipline and to illustrate the theory with basic applications of engineering interest. Approximately 1/3 of the text is new material--this material maintains the style and spirit of previous editions. In order to bridge the gap between concepts and applications, a number of additional examples have been added for further clarity, as well as several new topics.

    In Peter Woit's view, superstring theory is just such an idea. In Not Even Wrong , he shows that what many physicists call superstring "theory" is not a theory at all. It makes no predictions, even wrong ones, and this very lack of falsifiability is what has allowed the subject to survive and flourish. Not Even Wrong explains why the mathematical conditions for progress in physics are entirely absent from superstring theory today and shows that judgments about scientific statements, which should be based on the logical consistency of argument and experimental evidence, are instead based on the eminence of those claiming to know the truth. In the face of many books from enthusiasts for string theory, this book presents the other side of the story.

    Just the right amount of science. Common sense and rational.” -- Wayne R. The greenhouse effect is always quoted—but that is a METAPHOR. What is the fundamental physical process that drives it? And how exactly does human activity play such a powerful role with it? How did we go from worrying about global warming to climate change…to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions? "Great book - should me mandatory reading for anyone that uses the term 'Climate Change' " - Amazon purchaser Macsugar Are there gases more powerful and influential in the greenhouse effect than CO2? Yes, by a lot! As you will learn in this book… Why aren’t we spending more time, money, and attention focusing on those? Smart people want to get to the point of a problem and solve it as quickly, inexpensively, and effortlessly as possible. They know about the Pareto Principle, and you will too after you read this book. It is also called the 80/20 rule. What happens when we apply that principle to the global climate change “consensus”? “Thank You! I always thought the numbers were small, but I never took the time to do the math.” -- Mike S. There are many books that are long, technical, and—frankly, irrelevant—on the topic of climate change. Here are the most important questions that nobody has bothered to answer in straightforward, simple and short language, until now: * What are basic facts about our planet’s atmosphere? And what do they tell us about the fundamental physics of climate change? * What are the basic physics and assumptions behind the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis or belief? Are they valid? * What element or compound is the single greatest factor in temperature control in our atmosphere? Hint—it isn’t carbon dioxide. How does carbon dioxide compare with this other chemical? "Takes less than an hour to read... A must-read for every official policy-maker at every level... This deserves 6 stars out of 5!" -- Terry Dunleavy (Amazon reviewer) “Brilliant, what a refreshing approach.” -- Christopher K. Before we spend more time, money, and emotional energy on the presumed EFFECTS and CONSEQUENCES of global warming and climate change (things like rising temperatures, rising sea levels, etc., etc.), shouldn’t we all have a BASIC UNDERSTANDING of the FUNDAMENTAL PROCESSES AND PHYSICS of our planet’s atmosphere? If you have any questions, or doubts about that, this book is for you. “Very good. I am a geophysicist.” -- Ben B. Even better, you’ll learn (or re-learn) a very simple and indisputable fact about our atmosphere that makes the entire controversy look ridiculous. Use this information as a test (or a bet) the next time you talk with someone on the “other side” of the climate change debate. “A very useful contribution to bringing sanity and reason back to the analysis of AGW.” – Tom P. The climate change threat is consuming more of our precious time, energy, and resources. So is the debate about what to do about it. Don’t allow yourself be a part of the problem—get this book so that you can be a part of the solution! If you are convinced that AGW is the biggest threat facing our planet, this book has facts and

    joins Ford Motor Co. in 1948, he has no idea the part he'll play in automotive history. Morsey's arrival comes as Henry Ford II and other titans in the industry are about to kill the vaunted V-8 engine. He sees it as his sole mission to talk them out of it. In The Man Who Saved the V-8, he shares the never-before-told story of how his crusade saved the engine that would go on to power iconic cars like the Ford Thunderbird and Mustang. "To this day, I have no idea how a young, newly hired manager like myself...had the nerve to challenge the most powerful men inside Ford Motor Company and tell them they were wrong," Morsey says. "But that is exactly what I did." The twenty-nine-year-old executive embarks on massive market research. He works with manufacturing experts to find ways to produce the V-8 engine more efficiently. After finding success, he goes on to continue playing a central role in some of the most pivotal decisions that would ensure Ford remains one of the powerhouses in the automotive industry. The Man Who Saved the V-8 tells the story of his successes and lessons learned.

    Probably most or even all of the above. The story of our home planet and the organisms spread across its surface is far more spectacular than any Hollywood blockbuster, filled with enough plot twists to rival a bestselling thriller. But only recently have we begun to piece together the whole mystery into a coherent narrative. Drawing on his decades of field research and up-to-the-minute understanding of the latest science, renowned geologist Andrew H. Knoll delivers a rigorous yet accessible biography of Earth, charting our home planet's epic 4.6 billion-year story. Placing twenty first-century climate change in deep context, A Brief History of Earth is an indispensable look at where we’ve been and where we’re going.Features original illustrations depicting Earth history and nearly 50 figures (maps, tables, photographs, graphs).

    To some, nuclear deterrence appeared as utter madness, and was in fact commonly referred to as M.A.D. The concept of Mutually Assured Destruction provoked protests and marches, and the architect of M.A.D, General Curtis LeMay, became a symbol of madness himself.

    Half of Americans reject the theory of evolution and "Intelligent Design" campaigns are gaining ground. Classroom by classroom, creationism is overthrowing biology.In Why Darwin Matters, bestselling author Michael Shermer explains how the newest brand of creationism appeals to our predisposition to look for a designer behind life's complexity. Shermer decodes the scientific evidence to show that evolution is not "just a theory" and illustrates how it achieves the design of life through the bottom-up process of natural selection. Shermer, once an evangelical Christian and a creationist, argues that Intelligent Design proponents are invoking a combination of bad science, political antipathy, and flawed theology. He refutes their pseudoscientific arguments and then demonstrates why conservatives and people of faith can and should embrace evolution. He then appraises the evolutionary questions that truly need to be settled, building a powerful argument for science itself.Cutting the politics away from the facts, Why Darwin Matters is an incisive examination of what is at stake in the debate over evolution.

    Cases, datasets, and examples allow for a more real-world perspective and explore relevant uses of regression techniques in business today.