Essentially, you are estimating a probability, but then updating that estimate based on other things that you know. This book is designed to give you an intuitive understanding of how to use Bayes Theorem. It starts with the definition of what Bayes Theorem is, but the focus of the book is on providing examples that you can follow and duplicate. Most of the examples are calculated in Excel, which is useful for updating probability if you have dozens or hundreds of data points to roll in.

    The presentation is never awkward or dry, as it sometimes is in other "modern" textbooks; it is as unconventional as one has come to expect from the author. The book contains about 350 well placed and instructive problems, which cover a considerable part of the subject. All in all, this is an excellent work, of equally high value for both student and teacher." Zentralblatt f�r Mathematik

    Providing a concise introduction to abstract algebra, this work unfolds some of the fundamental systems with the aim of reaching applicable, significant results.

    

    Fishing, swimming, golf, tennis. Seems like the ideal location for a former secret agent posing as a retired police officer and part-time private investigator. Until people start disappearing. Suggested reading order for the Nicholas Colt series: COLT LADY 52 POCKET-47 CROSSCUT SNUFF TAG 9 KEY DEATH BLOOD TATTOO SYCAMORE BLUFF THE JACK REACHER FILES: FUGITIVE THE JACK REACHER FILES: VELOCITY (Novella) THE BLOOD NOTEBOOKS Note: Although published at a later date, the events in COLT and LADY 52 precede those in Jude Hardin's debut thriller POCKET-47. All of the books listed work as stand-alone thrillers, depending on reader preference. Nicholas Colt also appears in several short stories, including the one titled RATTLED and the one titled RACKED. Praise for Jude Hardin’s Thrillers: POCKET-47 sucked me in and held me enthralled. Author Jude Hardin keeps the pace frantic, the thrills non-stop, but best of all is his hero, the wonderfully ironic Nicholas Colt. This is a character I'm eager to follow through many adventures to come. —Tess Gerritsen, New York Times bestselling author of ICE COLD. The best PI debut I've read in years, fit to share shelf space with the best of Ross Macdonald, Sue Grafton, and Robert B. Parker. POCKET-47 is so hot you may burn your hands reading. Highly recommended. —J.A. Konrath, author of the Jack Daniels mysteries Hardin gets everything right in his powerhouse thriller debut, which introduces rock star–turned–PI Nicholas Colt. —Publishers Weekly on POCKET-47 KEY DEATH is an exhilarating thriller that punches way above its weight. It hits you hard and fast with crackling suspense, hair-raising twists and stunning revelations. Word of advice: don't start on this one unless you're prepared to stay up all night. —John Ling, author of THE BLASPHEMER Colt is a physical, no-holds-barred PI, reminiscent of Robert B. Parker's Spenser and Lee Child's Jack Reacher, and his debut is action-packed. With a hefty toll of dead bodies, some described in cringe-inducing detail, this is crime fiction at its rawest. Hard-boiled connoisseurs should make Colt's acquaintance now. —Booklist on POCKET-47 With CROSSCUT, Jude Hardin takes the PI novel and psychological suspense to a new, unrestrained level. Fast, fierce, and relentless. —David Morrell, New York Times bestselling creator of Rambo

    

    She's the Chief of Staff at a retirement home, which doesn't sound odd on its own, but when you consider it's a retirement home for witches and other paranormals, the strange factor ratchets up.  And, with a facility full of partly senile but still powerful witches, things go hilariously awry fast. This e-book contains the first three books in the Sunnyside Retired Witches Community series. Book 1: A Bottle Full of Djinn: Zoey Rivers has a pretty great job as Head of Staff at Sunnyside Retired Witches Community. She's good at handling the magical messes that are part and parcel of providing a home for elderly (and some slightly senile) witches. But when the messes turn from slightly sloppy to hugely horrible, Zoey realizes there's more involved than just her residents. If she doesn't figure out who's causing havoc at the Home, the place might not be standing for much longer. If you love crime capers with magic, mayhem, and mystery, you'll adore Zoey Rivers and her comical crew of witch retirees. Please note: This book is a crime caper, not a murder mystery. Book 2: Loony Town: Caring for elderly witches at the retirement home in Sunnyside, California is a full-time job for Zoey Rivers. But when one of them is blitzing, causing magic to act even weirder than normal, things get…well, downright wacky. And when a local insurance agent winds up dead, some of the people Zoey is responsible for become the prime suspects. As the zaniness of the magical blips continues and things get crazier and crazier, Zoey has to work fast and try to stay one step ahead to keep her charges out of jail, figure out who is causing the chaotic blitzing so she can fix it, and also figure out who the real killer is. It’s a tough job, but she's determined to do it. The people who live at Sunnyside Retired Witches Community are counting on her. And she’s not about to let them down now. Book 3: Mummy Issues: Sunnyside Retirement Witches Community gets its fair share of visitors. Some of them like the entertainment and others enjoy volunteering. But when one of the sight-seers ends up dead, Zoey Rivers has to figure out what happened. The residents come up with a fantastic idea: Since the retirement complex seems to have more than its fair share of murders, they figure it might be a good idea to have a psychic on staff. So, Zoey hires Iris. And all the information she pulls from the ghosts of the growing list of victims points to Zoey herself. Except the clues aren't pointing to her. They're fingering someone she'd thought was long dead.Sunnyside Retirement Witches Community gets its fair share of visitors. Some of them like the entertainment and others enjoy volunteering. But when one of the sight-seers ends up dead, Zoey Rivers has to figure out what happened. The residents come up with a fantastic idea: Since the retirement complex seems to have more than its fair share of murders, they figure it might be a good idea to have a psychic on staff. So, Zoey hires Iris. And all the information she pulls from the ghosts of the growing list of victims points to Zoey herself. Except the clues aren't pointing to her. They're fingering someone she'd thought was long dead.

    The ship contains an experimental quantum device, lost while en route to a research colony on Europa. On Earth, powerful corporate forces are moving to resume unrestricted, inter-AI communications, their objective being to gain complete dominion over the colonized solar system. But the outer worlds are mobilizing to prevent them from achieving their objective, a fight back which is being led by Solomon, a sentient quantum intelligence (QI), also on Europa. However, once word of the crew’s discovery gets out, they soon realize that ownership of this technology could fundamentally change the balance of power within the solar system, and they now find themselves at the very nexus of a system-wide conflict. Their fight for survival plays out across the solar system, from the mining outposts of the asteroid belt to the moons of Jupiter and Saturn, and from the great Martian city of Jezero to the irradiated wastelands on Earth. This is an epic tale of humanity’s struggle for survival and meaning in a time when artificial intelligence has finally out-paced our own ability to control it. About The Belt: The story is set a century or so into the future where humanity has colonized most of the inner solar system. The asteroid belt (The Belt) is now a hive of mining activity and ships ply the trade routes to Earth and Mars. The technology depicted, for the most part, is what I consider to be technically plausible, although I do stretch it a little with quantum entanglement. That said, you won’t need a calculator or a slide-rule to enjoy the story.

    The Dying Hour 2. Every Fear 3. A Perfect Grave. Meet Jason Wade, a rookie crime reporter with The Seattle Mirror, a loner who grew up in the shadow of a brewery in one of the city's blue-collar neighborhoods. BOOK 1 THE DYING HOUR: After its publication, the International Thriller Writers (ITW) selected The Dying Hour as a Finalist for a 2006 Thriller Award in the category of Best Paperback Original. The book introduces Jason Wade who is working at The Seattle Mirror, in a competition for the single full-time job being offered through the paper's intense intern program. But unlike the program's other young reporters, who attended big name schools and worked at big metro dailies, Wade put himself through community college, and lacked the same experience. Wade struggles with his troubled past as he pursues the story of Karen Harding, a college student whose car was found abandoned on a lonely stretch of highway in the Pacific Northwest. How could this beloved young woman with the altruistic nature simply vanish? Wade battles mounting odds and cut-throat competition to unearth the truth behind Karen Harding's disturbing case. Her disappearance is a story he cannot give up, never realizing the toll it could exact from him. The Dying Hour is a bone-chilling, mesmerizing page-turner that introduces readers to an all-too-human young hero who journeys into the darkest regions of the human heart to confront a nightmare. BOOK 2 EVERY FEAR: On an ordinary morning Maria Colson takes her baby son Dylan to the corner store. She turns her back for only a few seconds. When she looks again, she sees his empty stroller as Dylan is being abducted into a waiting van. Maria climbs into the van but is violently thrown to the road where she is left for dead as the vehicle vanishes without a trace. As Maria fights for her life and her anguished young husband keeps a beside vigil, the FBI and police across metro Sea-Tac and Washington State search for Dylan. Seattle Mirror reporter Jason Wade is under pressure to bring in a big story, and the Colson kidnapping could be it. It’s a bizarre case with pieces that just don’t add up: The Colsons are a hard-working couple. Former high school sweethearts. No problems. No enemies. Then Jason and his dad, a private detective haunted by his former life as a cop, discover a grisly murder of a young woman that is somehow connected to the Colsons. Now, in a dark Seattle underground of desperate dreamers and ex-convicts, Jason embarks on an investigation that parallels one led by Homicide Detective Grace Garner. They're both hunting for the one piece of the puzzle that connects the baby’s disappearance with a spine-tingling case of revenge. And time is running out, because whoever took little Dylan Colson is more dangerous than anyone could ever imagine. Every Fear takes suspense to a whole new level in a heart-pounding story that moves like a true crime case torn from today's headlines. BOOK 3 A PERFECT GRAVE: Rookie crime reporter Jason Wade, a loner from the wrong side of the tracks, pursues the story of a murdered Seattle nun. The case leads him to a hermit nun who founded a mysterious religious order; and ultimately to the dark secret that has tormented his ex-cop father for decades. It culminates in a life-and-death struggle against the clock. With time running out, Jason and his father battle the odds to confront a terrible truth.

     Dreamed of roping your own sexy cowboy? How about Six stories by award winning and best-selling Western Romance authors? These tales delight with romance, Wranglers and Stetsons. The Heartsong Cowboy by Melissa Keir- Can two people, one horse and the power of love cure a little girl? Ride of his Life by Deb Julienne-Battling your own demons is easier than fighting family. Clayton and Andie learn this the hard way... Radio Rose by Stephanie Berget- Cowboys and aliens … on a dark, deserted highway, it can be hard to tell the difference. 119 Days by RaeAnne Hadley- Divorced for five years, Celeste Howard was happy with her life. The only thing she missed was a man's touch. Sean Mison fit her ideal of a perfect one-night stand, but what began as a simple stress reliever grew into more than what Celeste signed on for. Promise Me Eden by D’Ann Lindun- She’s buried in grief. He doesn’t know how to help. Can they find their way back together before it’s too late? Cowboy in Waiting by Leslie P. Garcia- She’d buried a hero. She wasn’t looking for another. But her cowboy in waiting was far from a hero… Climb on board for the ride of your life!

    She needs a lifetime... When Viscountess Kinsley’s father lost all but their home and then drank himself to death, creditors stood ready to seize what remained. Anne’s only hope of saving her family is to find a husband through Lady Peddington’s School for Young Ladies. Only, upon graduation, Anne finds herself the victim of jealous gossip that claims she seeks multiple lovers. Now, no respectable man will have her. RAKE RUINER Hatred is only a kiss away from love. When her husband dies in a duel over another woman, Charlotte Fairhaven sets childish notions of love aside in favor of something more reliable – pleasure. Unfortunately, the gentlemen of Scotland have little appreciation for her newfound freedom. Offers of marriage abound, driving her to a remote corner of the Highlands to evade her admirers. There, Charlotte discovers the most aggravating man she’s ever met, and the only one with any hope to mend her heart. THE WIDOW’S TREASURE Two years after her husband’s death, Lady Derwent is finally enjoying a life of freedom and delicious intrigue. She travels to the Scottish Highlands only to sell the estate of Ardbeag, but when Stirling James suggests Rob Ogilvy of Lochgarron as a possible buyer, her plans begin to unravel. Rob believes the scandalous English widow has set her wicked sights on his nephew. But after only one masked encounter with her, he determines to make her his own. MARRYING THE BELLE OF EDINBURGH A foul murder, a beautiful widow, and one man who will risk everything for love. Lord William Brandon has spent torturous days and desperate nights in love with his best friend’s wife. He resolves to marry another with the help of the Marriage Maker, but when the Belle of Edinburgh appears at a ball and asks for his help, he once again is powerless to resist her. A MATCH MADE IN THE HIGHLANDS Captain Logan Graham hoped to find peace and solitude at Blackstone Abbey, but painful memories from the battlefield, along with his lingering injuries, refuse to let him rest. He’s not fit for polite company let alone a wife, especially not one as beautiful as the lady who arrives at his door at the behest of the Marriage Maker. SEDUCTION OF A WIDOW She intends to win the race. He intends to win her heart... Evan MacLaren prefers to find his thrills on the high seas. Stormy waters might be fickle, but not as fickle as a woman—particularly a high-spirited widow. Yet Lady Carr’s adventurous spirit calls to him just as the sea does. Here is a woman who will never bore him. A woman who is as free and dangerous as any ocean. And he must have her. THE MARRIAGE OBLIGATION Confirmed spinster meets British spy. What could possibly go wrong? At eighteen years old, Cornelia Hardcastle discovered an ugly family secret that could ruin her family. There is only one way to ensure the world doesn’t learn the truth: never marry. Now that she's twenty-four, however, her parents have put their foot down. She must marry. THE MAID OF INVERNESS Despite Douglas Randolph’s attempt to avoid Society and his responsibility as the future Duke of Inverness, news he is has inherited the dukedom reaches him deep in the Scottish Highlands. That problem pales into comparison to the wager he makes with the man known as The Marriage Maker. Sir Stirling James swears he can find suitable husbands for four ladies directly descendant from Robert the Bruce. Little does Douglas know he is to be the first groom.

    Comprises the complete text of: "Sense and Sensibility", "Pride and Prejudice", "Mansfield Park", "Emma", "Northanger Abbey", "Persuasion", "Lady Susan", and "Love and Friendship". This is the only single-volume edition of Jane Austen's novels to contain not only the wickedly humorous "Lady Susan", but also the irrepressibly exuberant early work "Love and Friendship". This collection allows readers to explore the development of one of the English language's greatest writers, following her development from the farcical comedy of "Love and Friendship" and "Northanger Abbey", via her most popular work, "Pride and Prejudice", to the masterpiece "Emma", and the considered romance of "Persuasion". A unique collection of the finest and most perceptive love stories ever written.

    An endless struggle.Three hundred ships. Trapped. Relentlessly pursued by the genocidal Regent and its vast robot battlefleets.Terrence Compton is one of Earth's greatest admirals, a warrior almost without equal. He and his forces saved Earth from invasion by the cybernetic legions of the First Imperium's insane computer Regent. But now he and his fleet are far from home, lost and cut off, with nowhere to flee but deeper into the darkness of uncharted space.Compton and his fleet must find safety...and ultimately a new home. Their journey will take them deep into the heart of the First Imperium, to the silent, windswept worlds where the ancient race that built the Regent once dwelled...and uncover the lost secrets of its disappearance 500,000 years ago. And find a way to destroy the Regent, to rid the universe of the insane machine once and for all.Includes the full novels Into the Darkness, Shadows of the Gods, and Revenge of the Ancients.Crimson Worlds Refugees Reading OrderInto the Darkness (Book One) - part of this collectionShadows of the Gods (Book Two) - part of this collectionRevenge of the Ancients (Book Three) - part of this collectionWinds of Vengeance (Book Four)Storm of Vengeance (Book Five) - Coming 2017

    You can also read it for FREE in Kindle Unlimited! Reckless lovers, passionate Highlanders, and men who dare to forge kingdoms come together in this fabulous collection of romantic tales. This set includes: Virtue by Victoria Vane - Abandoned as a young child, Alexander serves two masters…and a woman who doesn’t know her own heart. Together, they will forge the future of a kingdom. Valor by Victoria Vane - A king’s grandson robbed of his rightful inheritance…a knight’s daughter who longs for justice…and her salvation will require his sacrifice. Kilted at the Altar by Anna Markland - A rip-roaring comedic romance set in the Highlands of Scotland, part of the bestselling "Clash of the Tartans" series. My Reckless Love by Melissa Limoges - Between meddlesome relatives and a series of misunderstandings, Arabella and Calum must decide if they can entrust their hearts to one another before the enemy robs them of their newfound happiness. My Steadfast Love by Melissa Limoges - Treachery, murder, passion, and warring clans encompass this tale set in the highlands of Scotland. My Passionate Love by Melissa Limoges - Mairi and Aaron are forced together by circumstances. Will their kindled passion thaw with the coming spring? Or will it burn eternal? Get this collection before it's gone!

    Maddie Graves and Nick Winters have been through everything the world can throw at them and come out the other side. Death has stalked them at every turn but their love has held strong. Enjoy the final stories in their adventure. This three-book omnibus includes Grave Missteps, Grave Demands and Grave Wedding. Sit back and enjoy the end of their unforgettable story.