However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice-freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You'll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you've mastered these techniques, you'll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes - Learning the Bayesian "state of mind" and its practical implications - Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference - Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses - Building and debugging models with PyMC - Testing your model's "goodness of fit" - Opening the "black box" of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works - Leveraging the power of the "Law of Large Numbers" - Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning - Using loss functions to measure an estimate's weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes - Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size - Overcoming the "exploration versus exploitation" dilemma: deciding when "pretty good" is good enough - Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing - Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.

     A Texas Ranger, relegated to deskwork due to past recklessness, petitions to regain custody of his five-year-old daughter, and his case is assigned to a family court judge who is as attractive as she is ambitious. When a masked gunman barges in during the custody hearing with his sights on the judge, the Ranger reacts instinctually and goes after him. But authorities apprehend the wrong man, and the real gunman remains unknown, at large, and a threat. Will this take-charge lawman jeopardize his chances of custody by going after the would-be assassin? And will this unlikely pair be able to deny the forbidden attraction building between them?

    The machine awakens to begin issuing a series of increasingly alarming, if minor, omens. The omens turn out to be astonishingly accurate, and ever more ominous. As Zedd tries to figure out how to destroy the sinister device, the machine issues a cataclysmic omen involving Richard and Kahlan, foretelling an impending event beyond anyone's ability to stop. Richard Rahl and Kahlan Amnell must defend themselves and their followers from a series of terrifying threats. Other Tor Books by Terry Goodkind The Sword of Truth Wizard’s First Rule Stone of Tears Blood of the Fold Temple of the Winds Soul of the Fire Faith of the Fallen The Pillars of Creation Naked Empire Debt of Bones Chainfire Phantom Confessor The Nicci Chronicles Death’s Mistress Shroud of Eternity At the Publisher's request, this title is being sold without Digital Rights Management Software (DRM) applied.

     DROP DEAD BEAUTIFUL From Miami to Beverly Hills, from Mexico City to Acapulco to Las Vegas, dynamically sexy Lucky Santangelo and sweet-as-sin daughter, Max, are turning up the heat. So is Anthony Bonar, the son of Lucky's one-time godfather and lethal enemy, Enzio Bonatti. Lucky is preparing for the opening of her multibillion-dollar hotel complex in Las Vegas, The Keys, but Bonar-a vicious killer-is out to stop her any way he can. Meanwhile, sixteen-year-old Max has run off to Big Bear with a man she's met on the Internet. But he turns out to be a vengeful predator with a long-standing grudge against Lucky... So begins a non-stop thrill ride as Lucky builds her dream resort-and Max follows her dreams, and proves she's more than just a little Lucky. She's a kick-ass survivor. GODDESS OF VENGEANCE Passion. Beauty. Brains. Success. Lucky has everything her name implies. And as the force behind a high-profile casino and hotel complex, Lucky has exactly what billionaire businessman Armand Jordan is determined to take from her-and he's not afraid to play dirty. Meantime, Lucky's son Bobby is dealing with shady Russian investors and a hot new girlfriend, who happens to be a deputy D.A. While teenage Max is busy embarking on an affair with a sexy young movie star. It's business as usual for the Santangelo clan...But this time, it just might take more than Lady Luck for them all to come out on top.Jackie Collins knows a thing or two about life in the fast lane [with] her wry sense of humor and spitfire approach. -BazaarThis edition of the book is the deluxe, tall rack mass market paperback.

    These are the Savage North Chronicles. Over 2,000 pages of superhuman abilities, harrowing adventures, and heartwarming moments that will give you all the feels. Savage North Chronicles Reading Order:1. THE DARKEST WINTERElle - Haunting shadows are nothing new to Elle St. James, she’s been running from them all her life. But since the outbreak spread from the lower forty-eight, new monsters lurk in the darkness. After Elle wakes from the fever, capable of horrific deeds, she fears she’s one of them.Jackson - After the world goes mad and takes his family with it, Jackson Mitchell tosses aside his badge and decides a bottle of bourbon and the depths of despair are preferable to any semblance of living. All of that changes, however, when a group of young survivors are in dire need of his help and Jackson sacrifices his blissful oblivion in order to keep them safe.Brought together under the worst possible circumstances, Elle and Jackson must face the inexplicable realities of the new world. Their past lives are over, and the arctic isn’t all that’s savage anymore.1.5 THE LONGEST NIGHT, prequel novellaLife seemed complicated for Sophie when she had teen pregnancy and her squeaky-clean reputation as the mayor’s daughter to worry about. Now, everything is changed. Bloodcurdling screams pierce the night air and lurid memories haunt feverish dreams.Alex is the new kid from the wrong side of the tracks, and it’s all he can do to keep his head down until his eighteenth birthday when he can leave his life in foster care behind him. But Alex doesn’t realize he and the quiet girl from class with lonely, blue eyes are fated in the most impossible way imaginable.2. MIDNIGHT SUNThe six of them survived the Alaskan winter after the Virus devastated the North, but summer in the land of the midnight sun is fraught with a brutality of its own—long, grueling days, mosquito-ridden evenings, and woods with lurking shadows more dangerous than grizzlies.2.5. FADING SHADOWSCrazed survivors and Ability-hungry madmen aren’t the only repercussions of the Virus, and when a new, unforeseen danger threatens the townspeople, Kat must embrace her unharnessed Ability she’s been trying for years to avoid.3. UNTAMEDBeau has learned to embrace his Ability, but when he loses his best friend, Beau’s world crumbles all over again. Brokenhearted, he embarks on a transformative journey of self-discovery, fraught with danger and adventure, and most unexpectedly, love. But the scars left in the wake of the Virus run deeper than Beau can possibly imagine.4. UNBROKENThea fears the moment she’ll have to use her telekinesis again. After all, the mere flick of her wrist in the heat of the moment could prove fatal for someone she loves, and she already has enough blood on her hands to last her a lifetime. So, Thea jumps at the chance to shrug off the shadows of her youth and prove to herself she’s unbroken.Hunter and Thea have never gotten along, and three weeks together could be Hunter’s undoing...just not in the way he’s expecting.

    Five are connected to a series of old unsolved disappearances. But the sixth is fresh. What’s worse, two of the victims—including the most recent—were killed with Cork’s gun. As Cork searches for answers, he must dig into his own past and that of his father, a well-respected man who harbored a ghastly truth. Northwest Angle: Amid the wreckage of a violent storm, Cork O’Connor and his daughter Jenny discover a body. Nearby, a baby boy lies hungry and dehydrated but still very much alive. Powerful forces in pursuit of the child follow them to the isolated Northwest Angle, where it’s impossible to tell who is friend or foe. Trickster’s Point: Cork O’Connor sits deep in the wilderness with his good friend Jubal Little—favored to become Minnesota’s first Native American elected governor—who is slowly dying with an arrow through his heart. But this is no hunting accident. The arrow is one of Cork’s. As he works to clear his name and track the killer who set him up, only Cork knows that his complex, passionate, ambitious friend was also capable of murder.

    Reveals True Story of Kill Or Be Killed Shootouts In The Real Wild West.Recently discovered memoir by one of the Old West's most feared (but virtually unknown today) gunfighter's and lawmen puts you behind a pair of Colt .45 six-guns and immerses you in the real life man-on-man fast draw shootouts, hell-bent-for-leather outlaw chases and lead dodgin' narrow escape in the Real Old West.If you've ever wondered what it was like to strap on a six-gun and have a face-off-in-the-street gunfight where only the fastest gunslinger walks away - - then rare eyewitness account of what it was like to live and die in the Real Old West is a must read.

    Download both ebooks for a special low price. Birdman Five bodies, all young women, all ritualistically murdered and dumped near the Millennium Dome in southeast London. A post-mortem examination tells the police they’re dealing with a sexual serial killer. Detective Inspector Jack Caffery knows he has only limited time before the sadistic killer strikes again. The Treatment In a residential neighbourhood in south London, a husband and wife are found tied up and imprisoned in their house. Their young son is missing. Detective Jack Caffery is called in to investigate. When the child’s body is found, he attempts to unravel the motive and sequence of events, especially when he discovers that a tragedy in his own past is indirectly connected to the murder.

    Grab a blanket and curl up with your new favorite big cats.SCORCH Drew Maddox has to find his fated mate.Drew Maddox has been given orders by the king of the jaguar tribe. It’s time to start building the Maddox empire. There is only one name on his list, a woman betrothed to him at birth. It's time to find her. Francesca March has no idea about her heritage or where she came from. Adopted by humans, she has lived a lonely existence as the only she-panther she knows. Long ago she gave up on happy endings, heroes, and trust. She’s never let anyone get close enough to learn her secret. That is until she meets a stranger on the side of the road. Drew knows time is running out. He has to convince Francesca to marry him in less than five days. But with his own secrets haunting him he struggles with how much to tell her without losing her. Can Francesca face the reality of what it truly means to be a she-panther, or will Drew keep her in the dark to fulfill his duty? Sparks fly. The sheets burn down. And every time they touch a flame ignites. Will fate keep them together, or tear them apart? SACRIFICE The chase is on.Josh Bauer expects his mate to be excited to see him, but when he shows up in her small town, she slams the door in his face.Tessa Cunningham has been an independent she-panther, running her own business and taking care of her mother. The last thing she wants is to let go of the control she has over her life.The more Josh chases her, the more she resists his sexy charm.Josh has an obligation to fulfill, but he learns that being a mate is worth sacrificing everything—even if that means losing Tessa.SEIZE Sometimes you have to take what you want.Donovan may come from a royal line of jaguar shifters, but he’s serving another king now. His mission is to uncover the plot for a shifter war. He never imagined guarding his tribe’s territory would put him in the path of she-panther, Caroline Addison. Caroline knows she only has a few weeks until her fated mate surfaces, so she takes a last minute vacation to escape. Only, she never knew she would find the one man she’d always been looking for.When Donovan and Caroline decide nothing can keep them apart, not even a shifter war, they realize there is a cost. And the price may be too high to pay. SHIFT Loyalties are tested, a war is upon them, and love knows no bounds.Case Maddox has finally found his mate.But the shifter war keeps brewing.Can he save his Tribe, and the woman he loves?Cadence is trying to find her place as a human in a world of shifters and as the mate of the jaguar king, but she's struggling. One night her world comes crashing down around her and she has to decide if she can even go on.Captured and held hostage. The only way for Cadence to survive may be to pledge herself to Case's ultimate rival.But Cadence has a secret that may be the key to her survival.

    But soon the sexy sheriff isn’t laughing. Someone—or something—is stalking the beautiful defense lawyer, turning her once-grand mansion into a house of horrors. The Betrayed One day on the job and contractor Zach Sargent is ready to believe the dilapidated old LeBeau mansion is haunted. Some intruder—earthly or not—is threatening the youngest LeBeau sister, back to claim her inheritance. And though Danae keeps her distance from the sexy hired hand, he falls for her in a heartbeat. The ReunionBodyguard to an heiress is Tyler Duhan’s idea of hell. The steely, sexy ex-marine has heard—and dismissed—the gossip about the haunted old LeBeau mansion and its “cursed” heiresses. Now headstrong Joelle has arrived to reunite with her long-lost sisters. And as much as he wants her, he needs to keep his distance—or suffer the fatal consequences.

    Most important, it provides a wealth of examples for readers to model for everything from online journal articles to supplemental data sets and measurement instruments to books, videos, apps, websites, podcasts, blog posts, and social media. Approximately 70 examples are provided for readers to consider as they learn how to create reliable references for electronic sources.Students and other writers will find this guide indispensable as well as convenient to download and use when creating a reference list.

    In this richly illustrated book, accessible examples are used to show how information theory can be understood in terms of everyday games like '20 Questions', and the simple MatLab programs provided give hands-on experience of information theory in action. Written in a tutorial style, with a comprehensive glossary, this text represents an ideal primer for novices who wish to become familiar with the basic principles of information theory.Download chapter 1 from http://jim-stone.staff.shef.ac.uk/Boo...

    Its world-class authors provide guidance on all aspects of Bayesian data analysis and include examples of real statistical analyses, based on their own research, that demonstrate how to solve complicated problems. Changes in the new edition include:Stronger focus on MCMC Revision of the computational advice in Part III New chapters on nonlinear models and decision analysis Several additional applied examples from the authors' recent research Additional chapters on current models for Bayesian data analysis such as nonlinear models, generalized linear mixed models, and more Reorganization of chapters 6 and 7 on model checking and data collectionBayesian computation is currently at a stage where there are many reasonable ways to compute any given posterior distribution. However, the best approach is not always clear ahead of time. Reflecting this, the new edition offers a more pluralistic presentation, giving advice on performing computations from many perspectives while making clear the importance of being aware that there are different ways to implement any given iterative simulation computation. The new approach, additional examples, and updated information make Bayesian Data Analysis an excellent introductory text and a reference that working scientists will use throughout their professional life.

    With it, you'll learn how to write Python programs that work with large collections of unstructured text. You'll access richly annotated datasets using a comprehensive range of linguistic data structures, and you'll understand the main algorithms for analyzing the content and structure of written communication.Packed with examples and exercises, Natural Language Processing with Python will help you: Extract information from unstructured text, either to guess the topic or identify "named entities" Analyze linguistic structure in text, including parsing and semantic analysis Access popular linguistic databases, including WordNet and treebanks Integrate techniques drawn from fields as diverse as linguistics and artificial intelligenceThis book will help you gain practical skills in natural language processing using the Python programming language and the Natural Language Toolkit (NLTK) open source library. If you're interested in developing web applications, analyzing multilingual news sources, or documenting endangered languages -- or if you're simply curious to have a programmer's perspective on how human language works -- you'll find Natural Language Processing with Python both fascinating and immensely useful.

    Written by Magnus Lie Hetland, author of Beginning Python, this book is sharply focused on classical algorithms, but it also gives a solid understanding of fundamental algorithmic problem-solving techniques.The book deals with some of the most important and challenging areas of programming and computer science, but in a highly pedagogic and readable manner. The book covers both algorithmic theory and programming practice, demonstrating how theory is reflected in real Python programs. Well-known algorithms and data structures that are built into the Python language are explained, and the user is shown how to implement and evaluate others himself.