Discovered by an 18th century mathematician and preacher, Bayes' rule is a cornerstone of modern probability theory. In this richly illustrated book, intuitive visual representations of real-world examples are used to show how Bayes' rule is actually a form of commonsense reasoning. The tutorial style of writing, combined with a comprehensive glossary, makes this an ideal primer for novices who wish to gain an intuitive understanding of Bayesian analysis. As an aid to understanding, online computer code (in MatLab, Python and R) reproduces key numerical results and diagrams.Stone's book is renowned for its visually engaging style of presentation, which stems from teaching Bayes' rule to psychology students for over 10 years as a university lecturer.

    Trisha Greenhalgh's ability to explain the basics of evidence-based medicine in an accessible and readable way means the book is an ideal introduction for all, from first year students to experienced practitioners. This is a text that explains the meaning of critical appraisal and terms such as 'numbers needed to treat', 'how to search the literature', 'evaluate the different types of papers' and 'put the conclusions to clinical use'.New features of the third edition include: New discussion putting evidence-based medicine into the current context, with more emphasis on patient perspectivesIncreased coverage of qualitative research in evidence-based medicineNew information on literature sources and search mechanisms

    One slogan of Perl is that it makes easy things easy and hard things possible. "Intermediate Perl" is about making the leap from the easy things to the hard ones.Originally released in 2003 as "Learning Perl Objects, References, and Modules" and revised and updated for Perl 5.8, this book offers a gentle but thorough introduction to intermediate programming in Perl. Written by the authors of the best-selling "Learning Perl," it picks up where that book left off. Topics include: Packages and namespacesReferences and scopingManipulating complex data structuresObject-oriented programmingWriting and using modulesTesting Perl codeContributing to CPANFollowing the successful format of "Learning Perl," we designed each chapter in the book to be small enough to be read in just an hour or two, ending with a series of exercises to help you practice what you've learned. To use the book, you just need to be familiar with the material in "Learning Perl" and have ambition to go further.Perl is a different language to different people. It is a quick scripting tool for some, and a fully-featured object-oriented language for others. It is used for everything from performing quick global replacements on text files, to crunching huge, complex sets of scientific data that take weeks to process. Perl is what you make of it. But regardless of what you use Perl for, this book helps you do it more effectively, efficiently, and elegantly."Intermediate Perl" is about learning to use Perl as a programming language, and not just a scripting language. This is the book that turns the Perl dabbler into the Perl programmer.

    To reach this unique audience, Whitlock and Schluter motivate learning with interesting biological and medical examples; they emphasize intuitive understanding; and they focus on real data. The book covers basic topics in introductory statistics, including graphs, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, comparison of means, regression, and designing experiments. It also introduces the principles behind such modern topics as likelihood, linear models, meta-analysis and computer-intensive methods. Instructors and students consistently praise the book's clear and engaging writing, strong visualization techniques, and its variety of fascinating and relevant biological examples.

    

    Eyes wide open. I was standing at an open window, staring at the dizzying curve of Riverside Drive, five floors below. I’d stopped, somehow, poised, about to jump.Growing up the good girl in an Irish American family full of drinkers and terrible sleepers, Kathleen Frazier was twelve when her seemingly innocent sleepwalking turned dangerous. Over the next few years, she was a popular A+ student by day, the star of her high school musical. At night, she both longed for and dreaded sleep.Frazier moved to Manhattan in the 1980s, hoping for a life in the theater but getting a run of sleepwalking performances instead. Efforts to abate her malady with drinking failed miserably. She became promiscuous, looking for nighttime companionship. Could a bed partner save her from flinging herself down a flight of stairs or out an open window? Exhaustion stalked her, and rest and love were seemingly out of reach.This is the journey Frazier illuminates in her intimate memoir. While highlighting her quest to beat her sleep terrors and insomnia, this is ultimately a story of health, hope, and redemption.

    Just the right amount of science. Common sense and rational.” -- Wayne R. The greenhouse effect is always quoted—but that is a METAPHOR. What is the fundamental physical process that drives it? And how exactly does human activity play such a powerful role with it? How did we go from worrying about global warming to climate change…to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions? "Great book - should me mandatory reading for anyone that uses the term 'Climate Change' " - Amazon purchaser Macsugar Are there gases more powerful and influential in the greenhouse effect than CO2? Yes, by a lot! As you will learn in this book… Why aren’t we spending more time, money, and attention focusing on those? Smart people want to get to the point of a problem and solve it as quickly, inexpensively, and effortlessly as possible. They know about the Pareto Principle, and you will too after you read this book. It is also called the 80/20 rule. What happens when we apply that principle to the global climate change “consensus”? “Thank You! I always thought the numbers were small, but I never took the time to do the math.” -- Mike S. There are many books that are long, technical, and—frankly, irrelevant—on the topic of climate change. Here are the most important questions that nobody has bothered to answer in straightforward, simple and short language, until now: * What are basic facts about our planet’s atmosphere? And what do they tell us about the fundamental physics of climate change? * What are the basic physics and assumptions behind the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis or belief? Are they valid? * What element or compound is the single greatest factor in temperature control in our atmosphere? Hint—it isn’t carbon dioxide. How does carbon dioxide compare with this other chemical? "Takes less than an hour to read... A must-read for every official policy-maker at every level... This deserves 6 stars out of 5!" -- Terry Dunleavy (Amazon reviewer) “Brilliant, what a refreshing approach.” -- Christopher K. Before we spend more time, money, and emotional energy on the presumed EFFECTS and CONSEQUENCES of global warming and climate change (things like rising temperatures, rising sea levels, etc., etc.), shouldn’t we all have a BASIC UNDERSTANDING of the FUNDAMENTAL PROCESSES AND PHYSICS of our planet’s atmosphere? If you have any questions, or doubts about that, this book is for you. “Very good. I am a geophysicist.” -- Ben B. Even better, you’ll learn (or re-learn) a very simple and indisputable fact about our atmosphere that makes the entire controversy look ridiculous. Use this information as a test (or a bet) the next time you talk with someone on the “other side” of the climate change debate. “A very useful contribution to bringing sanity and reason back to the analysis of AGW.” – Tom P. The climate change threat is consuming more of our precious time, energy, and resources. So is the debate about what to do about it. Don’t allow yourself be a part of the problem—get this book so that you can be a part of the solution! If you are convinced that AGW is the biggest threat facing our planet, this book has facts and

    However, these activities can be viewed as two facets of the same field, and together they have undergone substantial development over the past ten years. In particular, Bayesian methods have grown from a specialist niche to become mainstream, while graphical models have emerged as a general framework for describing and applying probabilistic models. Also, the practical applicability of Bayesian methods has been greatly enhanced through the development of a range of approximate inference algorithms such as variational Bayes and expectation propagation. Similarly, new models based on kernels have had a significant impact on both algorithms and applications. This new textbook reflects these recent developments while providing a comprehensive introduction to the fields of pattern recognition and machine learning. It is aimed at advanced undergraduates or first-year PhD students, as well as researchers and practitioners, and assumes no previous knowledge of pattern recognition or machine learning concepts. Knowledge of multivariate calculus and basic linear algebra is required, and some familiarity with probabilities would be helpful though not essential as the book includes a self-contained introduction to basic probability theory.

    Real stories about the patients, nurses, consulting physicians, and daily life of a busy Emergency Department. Get a glimpse inside the inner workings of an Emergency Department and the staff that works there, caring for patients and their families. From a toddler who can cuss a blue streak, a dead mouse brought into the Emergency Department, to critical resuscitations, these are stories that you will never forget.

    Bitches are moody. To succeed in life, we are told, we must have it all under control. We have to tamp down our inherent shifts in favor of a more static way of being. But our bodies are wiser than we imagine. Moods are not an annoyance to be stuffed away. They are a finely-tuned feedback system that, if heeded, can tell us how best to manage our lives. Our changing moods let us know when our bodies are primed to tackle different challenges and when we should be alert to developing problems. They help us select the right tool for each of our many jobs. If we deny our emotionality, we deny the breadth of our talents. With the right care of our inherently dynamic bodies, we can master our moods to avail ourselves of this great natural strength.  Yet millions of American women are medicating away their emotions because our culture says that moodiness is a problem to be fixed. One in four of us takes a psychiatric drug. If you add sleeping pills to the mix, the statistics become considerably higher. Over-prescribed medications can have devastating consequences for women in many areas of our lives: sex, relationships, sleep, eating, focus, balance, and aging.  And even if we don’t pop a pill, women everywhere are numbing their emotions with food, alcohol, and a host of addictive behaviors that deny the wisdom of our bodies and keep us from addressing the real issues that we face. Dr. Julie Holland knows there is a better way. She’s been sharing her frank and funny wisdom with her patients for years, and in Moody Bitches Dr. Holland offers readers a guide to our bodies and our moodiness that includes insider information about the pros and cons of the drugs we’re being offered, the direct link between food and mood, an honest discussion about sex, practical exercise and sleep strategies, as well as some surprising and highly effective natural therapies that can help us press the reset button on our own bodies and minds. In the tradition of Our Bodies, Our Selves, this groundbreaking guide for women of all ages will forge a much needed new path in women’s health—and offer women invaluable information on how to live better, and be more balanced, at every stage of life.

    Henry Petroski traces the origins of the pencil back to ancient Greece and Rome, writes factually and charmingly about its development over the centuries and around the world, and shows what the pencil can teach us about engineering and technology today.

    A wealth of accompanying figures and exercises illustrate and develop the material in more depth. They describe what a quantum computer is, how it can be used to solve problems faster than familiar "classical" computers, and the real-world implementation of quantum computers. Their book concludes with an explanation of how quantum states can be used to perform remarkable feats of communication, and of how it is possible to protect quantum states against the effects of noise.

    Night Falls Fast is tragically timely: suicide has become one of the most common killers of Americans between the ages of fifteen and forty-five.An internationally acknowledged authority on depressive illnesses, Dr. Jamison has also known suicide firsthand: after years of struggling with manic-depression, she tried at age twenty-eight to kill herself. Weaving together a historical and scientific exploration of the subject with personal essays on individual suicides, she brings not only her remarkable compassion and literary skill but also all of her knowledge and research to bear on this devastating problem. This is a book that helps us to understand the suicidal mind, to recognize and come to the aid of those at risk, and to comprehend the profound effects on those left behind. It is critical reading for parents, educators, and anyone wanting to understand this tragic epidemic.

    Wilczek’s groundbreaking work in quantum physics was inspired by his intuition to look for a deeper order of beauty in nature. In fact, every major advance in his career came from this intuition: to assume that the universe embodies beautiful forms, forms whose hallmarks are symmetry—harmony, balance, proportion—and economy. There are other meanings of “beauty,” but this is the deep logic of the universe—and it is no accident that it is also at the heart of what we find aesthetically pleasing and inspiring.Wilczek is hardly alone among great scientists in charting his course using beauty as his compass. As he reveals in A Beautiful Question, this has been the heart of scientific pursuit from Pythagoras, the ancient Greek who was the first to argue that “all things are number,” to Galileo, Newton, Maxwell, Einstein, and into the deep waters of twentiethcentury physics. Though the ancients weren’t right about everything, their ardent belief in the music of the spheres has proved true down to the quantum level. Indeed, Wilczek explores just how intertwined our ideas about beauty and art are with our scientific understanding of the cosmos.Wilczek brings us right to the edge of knowledge today, where the core insights of even the craziest quantum ideas apply principles we all understand. The equations for atoms and light are almost literally the same equations that govern musical instruments and sound; the subatomic particles that are responsible for most of our mass are determined by simple geometric symmetries. The universe itself, suggests Wilczek, seems to want to embody beautiful and elegant forms. Perhaps this force is the pure elegance of numbers, perhaps the work of a higher being, or somewhere between. Either way, we don’t depart from the infinite and infinitesimal after all; we’re profoundly connected to them, and we connect them. When we find that our sense of beauty is realized in the physical world, we are discovering something about the world, but also something about ourselves.Gorgeously illustrated, A Beautiful Question is a mind-shifting book that braids the age-old quest for beauty and the age-old quest for truth into a thrilling synthesis. It is a dazzling and important work from one of our best thinkers, whose humor and infectious sense of wonder animate every page. Yes: The world is a work of art, and its deepest truths are ones we already feel, as if they were somehow written in our souls.

    Human beings have long been both fascinated and appalled by randomness. On the one hand, we love the thrill of a surprise party, the unpredictability of a budding romance, or the freedom of not knowing what tomorrow will bring. We are inexplicably delighted by strange coincidences and striking similarities. But we also hate uncertainty's dark side. From cancer to SARS, diseases strike with no apparent pattern. Terrorists attack, airplanes crash, bridges collapse, and we never know if we'll be that one in a million statistic. We are all constantly faced with situations and choices that involve randomness and uncertainty. A basic understanding of the rules of probability theory, applied to real-life circumstances, can help us to make sense of these situations, to avoid unnecessary fear, to seize the opportunities that randomness presents to us, and to actually enjoy the uncertainties we face. The reality is that when it comes to randomness, you can run, but you can't hide. So many aspects of our lives are governed by events that are simply not in our control. In this entertaining yet sophisticated look at the world of probabilities, author Jeffrey Rosenthal--an improbably talented math professor--explains the mechanics of randomness and teaches us how to develop an informed perspective on probability.