Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    And, should you ever get to hold one, you will find the human heart to be rubbery and shockingly light.'What Could Possibly Go Wrong? is a report from the front line of emergency medicine, the first ever account of what it is like to work as an air ambulance doctor. Whether describing cutting through a patient's breastbone to plug a stab wound or barrel rolling a light aircraft at 5,000 feet, Tony Bleetman captures the sheer adrenaline of racing through the sky to save lives. You will learn how to land a helicopter on the side of a mountain, what it means to encounter death every day, and how to perform a tracheotomy in real life (clue: it doesn’t involve a ball-point pen).Funny, shocking and moving, What Could Possibly Go Wrong? is a glimpse at a world where the wrong decision can mean the difference between life and death.Originally published as You Can't Park There: The Highs and Lows of an Air Ambulance Doctor.

    Tedford have spent the past 20 years studying the evolutionary history of the family Canidae. Both are well known for having established the modern framework for the evolutionary relationship of canids. Combining their research with Mauricio Ant�n's impeccable reconstructions of both extinct and extant species, Wang and Tedford present a remarkably detailed and nuanced portrait of the origin and evolution of canids over the past 40 million years.The authors cull their history from the most recent scientific research conducted on the vast collections of the American Museum of Natural History and other leading institutions. The fossil record of the Canidae, particularly those from their birth place in North America, are the strongest of their kind among known groups of carnivorans. Such a wonderfully detailed evolutionary history provides access to a natural history that is not possible with many other groups of carnivorans.With their rich fossil record, diverse adaptations to various environments, and different predatory specializations, canids are an ideal model organism for the mapping of predator behavior and morphological specializations. They also offer an excellent contrast to felids, which remain entrenched in extreme predatory specializations. The innovative illustrated approach in this book is the perfect accompaniment to an extremely important branch of animal and fossil study. It transforms the science of paleontology into a thrilling visual experience and provides an unprecedented reference for anyone fascinated by dogs.

    Evo Devo Evolutionary Developmental Biology is the new science that has finally cracked open the box. Within the pages of his rich and riveting book, Sean B. Carroll explains how we are discovering that complex life is ironically much simpler than anyone ever expected.

    A book to help everyone affected by disease of the gallbladder or bile ducts.If you are having gallbladder problems, whether you have already lost it or not, this book tells you what to do. Gallbladder disease can be painful and frightening, which explains why many people are rushed off to surgery to have their gallbladder removed. Is this the best thing to do? Are we panicking? These decisions are complex and serious and thus it takes an expert in liver and gallbladder problems like Dr Sandra Cabot to help you make sense of it.Your gallbladder is precious and supports optimal digestion and absorption of nutrients and some people have complications after surgery, some people still have the same pain after surgery some people never feel well after having their gallbladder removed.Thankfully, Dr Cabot has written this book to help you and your doctor make the best decisions.In most cases there are safe natural alternatives that can help you to save your gallbladder, dissolve stones and restore healthy gallbladder and liver function.In this book you will find the following information:Types of gallbladder disorders covered in this bookRisk factors for gallbladder diseaseSymptoms of gallbladder dysfunctionSymptoms of a gallbladder attackThe natural treatment of gallstonesThe seven essential strategies for treating gallbladder disease1. Keep the bile fluid and keep it moving - ie. prevent bile stasis and bile sludge2. The best foods and herbs for the gallbladderRaw vegetable juice for the gallbladderGreen goodness soup for the gallbladderRaw beetroot salad for the gallbladder3. Keep your bowel moving and avoid constipation4. Take the right nutrients necessary for healthy bile5. Reduce cholesterol6. Avoid problem foods and fix your digestionCoeliac disease and gallstonesFood allergies and gallstones7. Eat the right fatsFirst aid remedies for easing the pain of a gallbladder attackTo flush or not to flush: when is it safe and appropriate to do a gallbladder flush?Safe and effective gallbladder flushGallbladder remedies cheat sheetsummary of the most important pointsBasic structure and function of the gallbladderWhat goes wrong - why do gallstones form?Thick and stagnant bile - a recipe for stone formationDiagnosis of gallbladder diseaseBlood testsWhat if it’s not your gallbladder after all?The conventional medical treatment of gallstonesNon-surgical medical treatments for gallstonesSometimes it has to go!Signs and symptoms that indicate your gallbladder should come outOther conditions affecting the gallbladder or bile ducts.95Gallbladder conditions during pregnancyHow to live well without a gallbladderStrategies for maintaining good health without a gallbladderRecipes and Food IdeasSuper Quick Shopping Listwww.sandracabot.comwww.liverdoctor.comwww.cabothealth.com.au

    Written with Barnard’s cooperation and with input from dozens of associates, drivers and rivals, this biography tells the entire story, both personal and professional, of a British design genius. Barnard’s technical achievements are explored in detail — and in accessible language — with special emphasis on his brilliant initiatives while at McLaren (the first carbon-fibre composite chassis) and Ferrari (the first semi-automatic gearbox). The Perfect Car is also a human-interest story, telling a tale of innovation under intense pressure while Barnard endeavoured to maintain a stable family life. This is a landmark book that will be relished by anyone interested in motorsport and design.

    This book provides the first complete identification guides to the birds of this teeming tropical paradise. It gives descriptions of 820 regional species, illustrated in 88 specially commissioned color plates accompanied by notes detailing distinctive features and habitats. Entries cover nomenclature, plumage, markings, voice, global range, distribution and regional status, habits, and diet. The main text gives practical information on where to find many exotic species, citing major birdwatching locations. Introductory chapters discuss habitats, climate, land-use, and conservation concerns. Professional ornithologists and amateur bird watchers alike will find this the indispensable bird guide for eastern Malaysia and western Indonesia for many years to come. It is also an unrivalled source of information for casual travellers and ecotourists.

    He was eager to begin his first practice, but it turned out to be more than he bargained for. In just two years, in September, 1918, the entire village was sickened in rapid succession in the flu pandemic that killed quickly and indiscriminately throughout the world. It was wartime, and Nixon was unable to find help., This story is an up close and personal account of what it was like to be sick with the HINI type virus in 1918. It is a tale of a dedicated doctor whose selflessness, compassion and courage helped the villagers survive in the pandemic that killed more people in a year than the Black Death killed in a century...

    In an overcrowded, underfunded medical system, she explores how more of us can be healthier, and how listening carefully to a patient’s experience can be as important as prescribing a pill. These dazzling essays show Hitchcock to be one of the most fearless and illuminating medical thinkers of our time – reasonable, insightful and deeply humane.

    In this exciting book, paleontologist Phillip Manning presents the most astonishing dinosaur fossil excavations of the past 100 years—including the recent discovery of a remarkably intact dinosaur mummy in the Badlands of North Dakota. Bone structure is just the beginning of our knowledge today, thanks to amazing digs like these. Drawing on new breakthroughs and cutting-edge techniques of analysis, Dr. Manning takes us on a thrilling, globe-spanning tour of dinosaur mummy finds—from the first such excavation in 1908 to a baby dinosaur unearthed in 1980, from a dino with a heart in South Dakota to titanosaur embryos in Argentina. And he discusses his own groundbreaking analysis of "Dakota," discovered by Tyler Lyson. Using state-of-the-art technology to scan and analyse this remarkable discovery, National Geographic and Dr. Manning create an incredibly lifelike portrait of Dakota. The knowledge to be gained from this exceedingly rare find, and those that came before it, will intrigue dinosaur-loving readers of all ages.

    While most of these discoveries live quietly in museum collections, there are a few that have become world-renowned celebrity personas—ambassadors of science that speak to public audiences. In Seven Skeletons, historian of science Lydia Pyne explores how seven such famous fossils of our ancestors have the social cachet they enjoy today.Drawing from archives, museums, and interviews, Pyne builds a cultural history for each celebrity fossil—from its discovery to its afterlife in museum exhibits to its legacy in popular culture. These seven include the three-foot tall “hobbit” from Flores, the Neanderthal of La Chapelle, the Taung Child, the Piltdown Man hoax, Peking Man, Australopithecus sediba, and Lucy—each embraced and celebrated by generations, and vivid examples of how discoveries of how our ancestors have been received, remembered, and immortalized. With wit and insight, Pyne brings to life each fossil, and how it is described, put on display, and shared among scientific communities and the broader public. This fascinating, endlessly entertaining book puts the impact of paleoanthropology into new context, a reminder of how our past as a species continues to affect, in astounding ways, our present culture and imagination.

    Krause is a pioneer in the revolutionary new science of archaeogenetics, archaeology augmented by revolutionary DNA sequencing technology, which has allowed scientists to uncover a new version of human history reaching back more than 100,000 years. Using this technology to re-examine human bones from the distant past, Krause has been able to map not only the genetic profiles of the dead, but also their ancient journeys.In this concise narrative he tells us their long-forgotten stories of migration and intersection. It's well known that many human populations carry genetic material from Neanderthals; but, as Krause and his colleagues discovered, we also share DNA with a newly uncovered human form, the Denisovans. We know now that a wave of farmers from Anatolia migrated into Europe 8,000 years ago, essentially displacing the dark-skinned, blue-eyed hunter-gatherers who preceded them. The farmer DNA is one of the core genetic components of contemporary Europeans and European Americans. Though the first people to cross into North and South America have long been assumed to be primarily of East Asian descent, we now know that they also share DNA with contemporary Europeans and European Americans. Genetics has an unfortunate history of smuggling in racist ideologies, but our most cutting-edge science tells us that genetic categories in no way reflect national borders.Krause vividly introduces us to prehistoric cultures such as the Aurignacians, innovative artisans who carved animals, people, and even flutes from bird bones more than 40,000 years ago; the Varna, who buried their loved ones with gold long before the Pharaohs of Egypt; and the Gravettians, big-game hunters who were Europe's most successful early settlers until they perished in the ice age. This informed retelling of the human epic confirms that immigration and genetic mingling have always defined our species and that who we are is a question of culture not genetics.

    Diligently researching how to restore his quality of life, she discovered Vet-Stem, a service that provides cutting-edge regeneration therapy for pets, using stem cells harvested from animals' own tissue. Just hours after receiving IV and intra-joint injections, Sam began aging backward--which left Julia wondering why this simple, effective treatment was not available for humans.            Julia suffered from chronic inflammatory bowel disease, and after witnessing Sam's astonishing recovery, she set out on a curious quest: to be treated like a dog by a doctor as competent as her vet! After a four-year wait, Julia became the first American to be successfully cured of a perirectal fistula with stem cells derived from her own fat. With this amazing true story of how a pack of shelter dogs she rescued from death row came to save her life, Julia hopes to inspire and inform readers about exciting healthcare options available to them and their cherished animal companions.

    

    With sidebars by 33 world-famous paleontologists and museum-quality illustrations, this is a must-have compendium of fact and fandom that dino enthusiasts of all ages will devour with glee!