HOW RISKY IS IT, REALLY?International risk expert David Ropeik takes an in-depth look at our perceptions of risk and explains the hidden factors that make us unnecessarily afraid of relatively small threats and not afraid enough of some really big ones. This read is a comprehensive, accessible, and entertaining mixture of what's been discovered about how and why we fear — too much or too little. It brings into focus the danger of The Perception Gap: when our fears don't match the facts, and we make choices that create additional risks.This book will not decide for you what is really risky and what isn't. That's up to you. HOW RISKY IS IT, REALLY? will tell you how you make those decisions. Understanding how we perceive risk is the first step toward making wiser and healthier choices for ourselves as individuals and for society as a whole.TEST YOUR OWN "RISK RESPONSE" IN DOZENS OF SELF-QUIZZES!

    Features exceptionally clear explanations and descriptions, step-by-step examples, more than 50 practical applications, over 2000 easy-to-challenging practice problems, and comprehensive coverage of essentials. PSpice, OrCAd version 9.2 Lite Edition, Multisims 2001 version of Electronics Workbench, and MathCad software references and examples are used throughout. Computer programs (C++, BASIC and PSpice) are printed in color, as they run, at the point in the book where they are discussed. Current and Voltage. Resistance. Ohm's Law, Power, and Energy. Series Circuits. Parallel Circuits. Series-Parallel Networks. Methods of Analysis & Selected Topics. Network Theorems. Capacitors. Magnetic Circuits. Inductors. Sinusodial Alternating Waveforms. The Basic Elements and Phasors. Series and Parallel ac Circuits. Series-Parallel ac Networks. Methods of Analysis and Related Topics. Network Theorems (ac). Power (ac). Resonance. Transformers. Polyphase Systems. Decibels, Filters, and Bode Points. Pulse Waveforms and the R-C Response. Nonsinusodial Circuits. System Analysis: An Introduction. For those working in electronic technology.

    Beautiful Evidence is about how seeing turns into showing, how data and evidence turn into explanation. The book identifies excellent and effective methods for showing nearly every kind of information, suggests many new designs (including sparklines), and provides analytical tools for assessing the credibility of evidence presentations (which are seen from both sides: how to produce and how to consume presentations). For alert consumers of presentations, there are chapters on diagnosing evidence corruption and PowerPoint pitches. Beautiful Evidence concludes with two chapters that leave the world of pixel and paper flatland representations - and move onto seeing and thinking in space land, the real-land of three-space and time.

    However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice-freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You'll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you've mastered these techniques, you'll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes - Learning the Bayesian "state of mind" and its practical implications - Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference - Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses - Building and debugging models with PyMC - Testing your model's "goodness of fit" - Opening the "black box" of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works - Leveraging the power of the "Law of Large Numbers" - Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning - Using loss functions to measure an estimate's weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes - Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size - Overcoming the "exploration versus exploitation" dilemma: deciding when "pretty good" is good enough - Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing - Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.

    The coming Augmented Age, however, promises a level of disruption, behavioral shifts and changes that are unparalleled. While consumers today are camping outside of an Apple store waiting to be one of the first to score a new Apple Watch or iPhone, the next generation of wearables will be able to predict if we re likely to have a heart attack and recommend a course of action. We watch news of Google s self-driving cars, but don t likely realize this means progressive cities will have to ban human drives in the next decade because us humans are too risky. Following on from the Industrial or Machine Age, the Space Age and the Digital Age, the Augmented Age will be based on four key disruptive themes Artificial Intelligence, Experience Design, Smart Infrastructure, and Health Tech. Historically the previous ages brought significant disruption and changes, but on a net basis jobs were created, wealth was enhanced, and the health and security of society improved. What will the Augmented Age bring? Will robots take our jobs, and AI s subsume us as inferior intelligences, or will this usher in a new age of abundance? Augmented is a book on future history, but more than that, it is a story about how you will live your life in a world that will change more in the next 20 years than it has in the last 250 years. Are you ready to adapt? Because if history proves anything, you don't have much of a choice."

    The science of complexity studies how single elements, such as a species or a stock, spontaneously organize into complicated structures like ecosystems and economies; stars become galaxies, and snowflakes avalanches almost as if these systems were obeying a hidden yearning for order. Drawing from diverse fields, scientific luminaries such as Nobel Laureates Murray Gell-Mann and Kenneth Arrow are studying complexity at a think tank called The Santa Fe Institute. The revolutionary new discoveries researchers have made there could change the face of every science from biology to cosmology to economics. M. Mitchell Waldrop's groundbreaking bestseller takes readers into the hearts and minds of these scientists to tell the story behind this scientific revolution as it unfolds.

    With the sophisticated algorithms in this book, you can write smart programs to access interesting datasets from other web sites, collect data from users of your own applications, and analyze and understand the data once you've found it.Programming Collective Intelligence takes you into the world of machine learning and statistics, and explains how to draw conclusions about user experience, marketing, personal tastes, and human behavior in general -- all from information that you and others collect every day. Each algorithm is described clearly and concisely with code that can immediately be used on your web site, blog, Wiki, or specialized application. This book explains:Collaborative filtering techniques that enable online retailers to recommend products or media Methods of clustering to detect groups of similar items in a large dataset Search engine features -- crawlers, indexers, query engines, and the PageRank algorithm Optimization algorithms that search millions of possible solutions to a problem and choose the best one Bayesian filtering, used in spam filters for classifying documents based on word types and other features Using decision trees not only to make predictions, but to model the way decisions are made Predicting numerical values rather than classifications to build price models Support vector machines to match people in online dating sites Non-negative matrix factorization to find the independent features in a dataset Evolving intelligence for problem solving -- how a computer develops its skill by improving its own code the more it plays a game Each chapter includes exercises for extending the algorithms to make them more powerful. Go beyond simple database-backed applications and put the wealth of Internet data to work for you. "Bravo! I cannot think of a better way for a developer to first learn these algorithms and methods, nor can I think of a better way for me (an old AI dog) to reinvigorate my knowledge of the details."-- Dan Russell, Google "Toby's book does a great job of breaking down the complex subject matter of machine-learning algorithms into practical, easy-to-understand examples that can be directly applied to analysis of social interaction across the Web today. If I had this book two years ago, it would have saved precious time going down some fruitless paths."-- Tim Wolters, CTO, Collective Intellect

    Nor do you need to burn incense or rub crystals.This book shows you easy ways to meditate whenever and wherever you want—you’ll learn how to do it without anyone knowing—and still hang out with your military pals, cop buddies, and fellow martial arts students. You can still own a pit bull, drive a Harley, and share lies with your drinking buddies. The same is true whether you’re a firefighter, doorman, bodyguard, medic, or security officer. The simple fact is, meditation as taught within these pages, will make you a better warrior.

    In this book, you’ll learn how many of the most fundamental data science tools and algorithms work by implementing them from scratch. If you have an aptitude for mathematics and some programming skills, author Joel Grus will help you get comfortable with the math and statistics at the core of data science, and with hacking skills you need to get started as a data scientist. Today’s messy glut of data holds answers to questions no one’s even thought to ask. This book provides you with the know-how to dig those answers out. Get a crash course in Python Learn the basics of linear algebra, statistics, and probability—and understand how and when they're used in data science Collect, explore, clean, munge, and manipulate data Dive into the fundamentals of machine learning Implement models such as k-nearest Neighbors, Naive Bayes, linear and logistic regression, decision trees, neural networks, and clustering Explore recommender systems, natural language processing, network analysis, MapReduce, and databases

    The authors have extensive experience both managing data analysts and conducting their own data analyses, and have carefully observed what produces coherent results and what fails to produce useful insights into data. This book is a distillation of their experience in a format that is applicable to both practitioners and managers in data science.

    The problem is that many of these techniques are kept secret and other guides are heavy and full of jargon. So how can you use the simple power of Sports Psychology techniques to revolutionize your performance today? Clearly you need more than just a system, you need the right kind of system. Not just the science behind mental strength but a super-simple, step-by-step guide to unlocking the power of your brain. As a bestselling author, martial arts and fitness coach, I’ve been lucky enough to work with some of the best experts around the world. With input from top instructors and researchers I discovered easy tactics that can be effortlessly used by everyone. From fitness fans, runners and gym athletes to combat styles like boxing, MMA, and martial arts. Even the busy office worker can dominate any competitive or stressful event in minutes! This is “Mental Combat”... and once applied to your training it quickly revolutionizes performance – every time! What Is Mental Combat? Mental Combat is a simple, easy set of tactics for unlocking the full power of your brain and body. Moreover, it gives you the proven scientific benefits of Sports Psychology without needing to understand the complex history and theories. Whilst traditional guides can be heavy and difficult to follow, Mental Combat is a simple, tactical approach. Perfect for martial artists, fitness fans, gym enthusiasts and even the busy office worker! Stressful, nerve-wracking events become a walk in the park when transformed using the right techniques. A busy and cluttered mind becomes laser focused. Would you like to know the quickest and easiest way to experience the incredible benefits of mental training? The Easy New Way To Get Started with Mental Training Inside “Mental Combat” you’ll discover… How to “psych-out” an opponent. “Mind Hacks” for instant, rock-solid confidence and cool. Powerful motivation and concentration skills. Revealed: the body position to banish nerves quickly and easily. The truth behind meditation. (and why it’s easier than you think). How to unlock the power of your brain for any event. The secret to managing victory, like a pro. The secret to handling defeat… and coming back stronger. How you can use Sports Psychology tactics even if you don’t do sports! And much more! Want To See For Yourself How Mental Combat Can Transform Your Performance? Click and grab your copy of Mental Combat now to see you’ve been missing! To say thanks for checking out this book you can claim your free guide: “3 Steps to Explosive Power” FREE from my website. Just visit: www.BlackBeltFit.

    This book will offer students a broad outline of essential mathematics and will help to fill in the gaps in their knowledge. The author explains the basic points and a few key results of all the most important undergraduate topics in mathematics, emphasizing the intuitions behind the subject. The topics include linear algebra, vector calculus, differential and analytical geometry, real analysis, point-set topology, probability, complex analysis, set theory, algorithms, and more. An annotated bibliography offers a guide to further reading and to more rigorous foundations.

    They even became friends over the years, but they parted ways when it came to psychology. While Freud's approach was clinical and scientific in the Western sense, Jung started to draw his inspiration from Eastern philosophies and religions. Because of Carl Jung we have today a bridge between the mythological and mysterious world and the world of psychology. His research into dreams and sub-conscious parts of the minds offers riveting insights into human psychology that none before him have been able to. While Freudian psychology is still the branch most taught within universities, there is a large undercurrent of Jungian psychology seeping into our society. Especially the spiritualists and the New Age movement have embraced Jung as a teacher to better understand their own "Shadows" and dark aspects of the psyche. In this short read you will be given a concise and insightful introduction into the world and psychology of Carl Jung.

    'Big data', 'data science', and 'machine learning' have become familiar terms in the news, as statistical methods are brought to bear upon the enormous data sets of modern science and commerce. How did we get here? And where are we going? This book takes us on an exhilarating journey through the revolution in data analysis following the introduction of electronic computation in the 1950s. Beginning with classical inferential theories - Bayesian, frequentist, Fisherian - individual chapters take up a series of influential topics: survival analysis, logistic regression, empirical Bayes, the jackknife and bootstrap, random forests, neural networks, Markov chain Monte Carlo, inference after model selection, and dozens more. The distinctly modern approach integrates methodology and algorithms with statistical inference. The book ends with speculation on the future direction of statistics and data science.

    The complexity of nature's shapes differs in kind, not merely degree, from that of the shapes of ordinary geometry, the geometry of fractal shapes.Now that the field has expanded greatly with many active researchers, Mandelbrot presents the definitive overview of the origins of his ideas and their new applications. The Fractal Geometry of Nature is based on his highly acclaimed earlier work, but has much broader and deeper coverage and more extensive illustrations.