Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    Just the right amount of science. Common sense and rational.” -- Wayne R. The greenhouse effect is always quoted—but that is a METAPHOR. What is the fundamental physical process that drives it? And how exactly does human activity play such a powerful role with it? How did we go from worrying about global warming to climate change…to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions? "Great book - should me mandatory reading for anyone that uses the term 'Climate Change' " - Amazon purchaser Macsugar Are there gases more powerful and influential in the greenhouse effect than CO2? Yes, by a lot! As you will learn in this book… Why aren’t we spending more time, money, and attention focusing on those? Smart people want to get to the point of a problem and solve it as quickly, inexpensively, and effortlessly as possible. They know about the Pareto Principle, and you will too after you read this book. It is also called the 80/20 rule. What happens when we apply that principle to the global climate change “consensus”? “Thank You! I always thought the numbers were small, but I never took the time to do the math.” -- Mike S. There are many books that are long, technical, and—frankly, irrelevant—on the topic of climate change. Here are the most important questions that nobody has bothered to answer in straightforward, simple and short language, until now: * What are basic facts about our planet’s atmosphere? And what do they tell us about the fundamental physics of climate change? * What are the basic physics and assumptions behind the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis or belief? Are they valid? * What element or compound is the single greatest factor in temperature control in our atmosphere? Hint—it isn’t carbon dioxide. How does carbon dioxide compare with this other chemical? "Takes less than an hour to read... A must-read for every official policy-maker at every level... This deserves 6 stars out of 5!" -- Terry Dunleavy (Amazon reviewer) “Brilliant, what a refreshing approach.” -- Christopher K. Before we spend more time, money, and emotional energy on the presumed EFFECTS and CONSEQUENCES of global warming and climate change (things like rising temperatures, rising sea levels, etc., etc.), shouldn’t we all have a BASIC UNDERSTANDING of the FUNDAMENTAL PROCESSES AND PHYSICS of our planet’s atmosphere? If you have any questions, or doubts about that, this book is for you. “Very good. I am a geophysicist.” -- Ben B. Even better, you’ll learn (or re-learn) a very simple and indisputable fact about our atmosphere that makes the entire controversy look ridiculous. Use this information as a test (or a bet) the next time you talk with someone on the “other side” of the climate change debate. “A very useful contribution to bringing sanity and reason back to the analysis of AGW.” – Tom P. The climate change threat is consuming more of our precious time, energy, and resources. So is the debate about what to do about it. Don’t allow yourself be a part of the problem—get this book so that you can be a part of the solution! If you are convinced that AGW is the biggest threat facing our planet, this book has facts and

    To build and manage your wealth, you must look at your situation holistically: build your character, standards, dreams, goals, and personal aspirations from the inside out. By developing both self-sufficiency and a connection with your community, it is possible to create wealth for yourself no matter who you are, what you do, or where you come from.

    Those who believe that myths are something that exist only in the far distant path are incorrect. Anyone who knows a little bit about modern river monsters knows they are the root of 20th and even 21st century cryptozoology myths. For children, reading about these amazing creatures, both ones we know exist and those that are pure fantasy, opens many doors of imagination. The sense of wonder gained helps the young ones to think more broadly about the world.

    joins Ford Motor Co. in 1948, he has no idea the part he'll play in automotive history. Morsey's arrival comes as Henry Ford II and other titans in the industry are about to kill the vaunted V-8 engine. He sees it as his sole mission to talk them out of it. In The Man Who Saved the V-8, he shares the never-before-told story of how his crusade saved the engine that would go on to power iconic cars like the Ford Thunderbird and Mustang. "To this day, I have no idea how a young, newly hired manager like myself...had the nerve to challenge the most powerful men inside Ford Motor Company and tell them they were wrong," Morsey says. "But that is exactly what I did." The twenty-nine-year-old executive embarks on massive market research. He works with manufacturing experts to find ways to produce the V-8 engine more efficiently. After finding success, he goes on to continue playing a central role in some of the most pivotal decisions that would ensure Ford remains one of the powerhouses in the automotive industry. The Man Who Saved the V-8 tells the story of his successes and lessons learned.

    Students around the world are taught about his theories and equations with E=mc2 undoubtedly being the most famous.However, there was more to this man than simply being a genius or the original prototype of the mad professor. Instead, this was a man that was dedicated to not only his profession, but also the concept of pacifism, something that most people are unaware of.Albert Einstein went from a late developing child to running away from school to almost failing university and instead turned himself into one of the greatest minds that the world has ever seen. This is his story, a story of how a child taught himself calculus and geometry and was then not afraid to challenge concepts of how the world worked that had been unchanged for centuries. This was a man who stood up for what he believed in even when the world appeared to be against him.The story of Albert Einstein is about more than just mathematical equations. The story is about a man who beat the odds and became world famous in the unlikely world of physics and the universe.

    From humorous fishing excursions and frightening bear encounters to snow blinding blizzards and quirky characters, they come face to face with the unpredictable Mother Nature and learn the value of friendship, survival, and solitude in a picturesque but harsh life by the sea. Packed with adventures, challenges, and true Alaskan lifestyle.

    Download issues at no extra cost from Archived Items. The Economist is the premier source for the analysis of world business and current affairs, providing authoritative insight and opinion on international news, world politics, business, finance, science and technology, as well as overviews of cultural trends and regular Special reports on industries and countries. Established in 1843 to campaign against the protectionist corn laws, The Economist remains, in the second half of its second century, true to the liberal principles of its founder. James Wilson, a hat maker from the small Scottish town of Hawick, believed in free trade, internationalism and minimum interference by government, especially in the affairs of the market. The Economist also takes a fiercely independent stance on social issues, from gay marriage to the legalisation of drugs, but its main service to its readers is as a global newspaper: To uncover new ideas from all around the world. The Kindle Edition of The Economist contains all of the articles and graphics found in the print edition, but will not include all photos. For your convenience, issues are auto-delivered wirelessly to your Kindle each Friday at the same time the print edition hits the newsstand.

    In response to the dynamic environment of management, Richard Daft has written a text integrating the newest management thinking with a solid foundation in the essentials of management.

    This behavior is very much different from what we humans are used to dealing with in our everyday lives, so naturally this subject is quite hard to comprehend for many. We believed that the best way to introduce the subject reliably is to start at the beginning, presenting the observations, thoughts and conclusions of each of the world’s greatest physicists through their eyes, one at a time. In this way we hope that the reader may take an enjoyable journey through the strange truths of quantum theory and understand why the conclusions of these great minds are what they are. This book starts with the most general view of the world and gradually leads readers to those new, unbelievable but real facts about the very nature of our universe.

    He worked with - and relaxed with - scientific giants of that time such as Edward Teller, Enrico Fermi, Stan Ulam, John von Neumann, and John Wheeler, and here offers illuminating insights into the personalities, the strengths, and the quirks of these men. Well known for his ability to explain physics to nonspecialists, Ford also brings to life the physics of fission and fusion and provides a brief history of nuclear science from the discovery of radioactivity in 1896 to the ten-megaton explosion of “Mike” that obliterated a Pacific Island in 1952. Ford worked at both Los Alamos and Princeton's Project Matterhorn, and brings out Matterhorn's major, but previously unheralded contribution to the development of the H bomb. Outside the lab, he drove a battered Chevrolet around New Mexico, a bantam motorcycle across the country, and a British roadster around New Jersey. Part of the charm of Ford's book is the way in which he leavens his well-researched descriptions of the scientific work with brief tales of his life away from weapons.Contents: The Big Idea The Protagonists The Choice The Scientists, the Officials, and the President Nuclear Energy Some Physics Going West A New World The Classical Super Calculating and Testing Constructing Matterhorn Academia Cowers New Mexico, New York, and New Jersey The Garwin Design Climbing Matterhorn It's More Than a Boy Readership: A memoir for general readership in the history of science.Key Features: It contains real physics, clearly presented for non-specialists Combining historical scholarship and his own recollections, the author offers important insights into the people and the work that led to the first H bomb Personal anecdotes enliven the book

    

    This is the story of Albert Einstein who born in Germany in 1879. Despite facing countless difficulties in his life, he earned his name in the field of science and proved that what extent a person can go to chose his way. No one born as a genius—man's hard work and passion makes him a genius. CONTENTS: 1. Early Life 2. School Years 3. University Years 4. Post-University Years 5. Scientific Discoveries 6. Personal Life 7. Interesting Facts about Einstein 8. Famous Words by Albert Einstein 9. An Overview of Einstein’s Life

    They are converted to metric units using realistic data to help students grasp what is feasible in engineering practice.