THE ART OF GUESSING IN POLITICS Herbert A. L. Fisher: POLITICAL PROPHECIES 4 2. THE ENCYCLOPEDIC SCIENCE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Sir Alfred Zimmern: INTRODUCTORY REPORT TO THE DISCUSSIONS IN ON UNIVERSITY TEACHING OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 19 3. THE METHODOLOGICAL FOUNDATION OF THE SCIENCE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Nicholas J. Spykman: METHODS OF APPROACH TO THE STUDY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 24 PART II WHAT FOREIGN POLICY IS ALL ABOUT 33 4. THE UNIVERSALITY OF POWER POLITICS Alexander Hamilton: THE FEDERALIST, NO. VI 34 5. THE NATIONAL INTEREST vs. ABSTRACT MORAL PRINCIPLES Alexander Hamilton: THE PACIFICUS PAPERS 38 6. POWER CALCULATIONS vs. FALSE COMPARISONS Alexander Hamilton: THE AMERICANUS PAPERS 44 7. A BRAVE NEW WORLD WITHOUT POWER POLITICS 50 (a) Woodrow Wilson: THE FOURTH LIBERTY LOAN (Address Opening the Campaign, September :27, 1918) 50 (b) Woodrow Wilson: ESSENTIAL TERMS OF PEACE IN EUROPE (Address to the United States Senate, January 22, 1917 ) 51 (c) Woodrow Wilson: FOR DECLARATION OF WAR AGAINST GERMANY (Address Delivered at a Joint Session of the Two Houses of Congress, April 2, 1917) 52 8. PHILANTHROPY vs. THE NATIONAL INTEREST W. E. Gladstone: BULGARIAN HORRORS AND RUSSIA IN TURKESTAN 53 9. THE SUPREMACY OF THE NATIONAL INTEREST Benjamin Disraeli: SPEECH IN THE HOUSE OF LORDS ON THE BERLIN TREATY (July 18, 1878) 55 10. Two MORE ASPECTS OF THE SUPREMACY OF THE NATIONAL INTEREST 56 (a) Lord Salisbury: SPEECH TO THE MIDDLESEX CONSERVATIVE ASSOCIATION (April 30, 1879) 57 (b) Lord Salisbury: SPEECH IN MANCHESTER (October 2, 1879) 57 PART III NATIONAL POWER 57 A. Imperialism: The Foremost Expression of National Power 61 11. THE IMPERIALISTIC DEVIL IN WALL STREET REPORT OF THE NYE COMMITTEE TO THE UNITED STATES SENATE ON MUNITIONS INDUSTRY CONTENTS PART I THE SCIENCE OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICS 3 1. THE ART OF GUESSING IN POLITICS Herbert A. L. Fisher: POLITICAL PROPHECIES 4 2. THE ENCYCLOPEDIC SCIENCE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Sir Alfred Zimmern: INTRODUCTORY REPORT TO THE DISCUSSIONS IN ON UNIVERSITY TEACHING OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 19 3. THE METHODOLOGICAL FOUNDATION OF THE SCIENCE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Nicholas J. Spykman: METHODS OF APPROACH TO THE STUDY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 24 PART II WHAT FOREIGN POLICY IS ALL ABOUT 33 4. THE UNIVERSALITY OF POWER POLITICS Alexander Hamilton: THE FEDERALIST, NO. VI 34 5. THE NATIONAL INTEREST vs. ABSTRACT MORAL PRINCIPLES Alexander Hamilton: THE PACIFICUS PAPERS 38 6. POWER CALCULATIONS vs. FALSE COMPARISONS Alexander Hamilton: THE AMERICANUS PAPERS 44 7. A BRAVE NEW WORLD WITHOUT POWER POLITICS 50 (a) Woodrow Wilson: THE FOURTH LIBERTY LOAN (Address Opening the Campaign, September :27, 1918) 50 (b) Woodrow Wilson: ESSENTIAL TERMS OF PEACE IN EUROPE (Address to the United States Senate, January 22, 1917 ) 51 (c) Woodrow Wilson: FOR DECLARATION OF WAR AGAINST GERMANY (Address Delivered at a Joint Session of the Two Houses of Congress, April 2, 1917) 52 8. PHILANTHROPY vs. THE NATIONAL INTEREST W. E. Gladstone: BULGARIAN HORRORS AND RUSSIA IN TURKESTAN 53 9. THE SUPREMACY OF THE NATIONAL INTEREST Benjamin Disraeli: SPEECH IN THE HOUSE OF LORDS ON THE BERLIN TREATY (July 18, 1878) 55 10. Two MORE ASPECTS OF THE SUPREMACY OF THE NATIONAL INTEREST 56 (a) Lord Salisbury: SPEECH TO THE MIDDLESEX CONSERVATIVE ASSOCIATION (April 30, 1879) 57 (b) Lord Salisbury: SPEECH IN MANCHESTER (October 2, 1879) 57 PART III NATIONAL POWER 57 A. Imperialism: The Foremost Expression of National Power 61 11. THE IMPERIALISTIC DEVIL IN WALL STREET REPORT OF THE NYE COMMITTEE TO THE UNITED STATES SENATE ON MUNITIONS INDUSTRY 62 12. THE IMPERIALISTIC DEVIL IN CAPITALISM Vladimir Lenin: IMPERIALISM, THE HIGHEST STAGE OF CAPITALISM 63 13. How EMPIRES ARE BUILT William Scott Ferguson: GREEK IMPERIALISM 70 14. How PLANNED TO BUILD ITS EMPIRE Guchi Tanaka: 'S DREAM OF WORLD EMPIRE: THE TANAKA MEMORIAL 72 B. The Elements of National Power 75 15. THE IMPACT OF LOCATION ON POWER Nicholas J. Spykman: GEOGRAPHY AND FOREIGN POLICY 76 16. THE ECONOMICS OF NATIONAL POWER Sir Arthur Salter: THE ECONOMIC CAUSES OF WAR 79 17. PEOPLES AND PROSPECTS OF NATIONAL POWER Dudley Kirk: POPULATION CHANGES AND THE POSTWAR WORLD 87 18. THE ROLE OF NATIONAL CHARACTER Salvador de Madariaga: ENGLISHMEN, FRENCHMEN, SPANIARDS 97 PART IV INTERNATIONAL ORDER AND PEACE 103 19. THE BALANCE OF POWER -- THE FUNDAMENTAL LAW OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICS David Hume: OF THE BALANCE OF POWER 105 20. THE BALANCE OF POWER -- THE UNIVERSAL LAW OF POLITICS H. W. V. Temperley: THE DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN POLICY OF WILLIAM OF ORANGE 110 21. THE USES OF INTERNATIONAL LAW Arnold D. McNair: INTERNATIONAL LAW IN PRACTICE 112 22. A BALANCE SHEET FOR THE Erich Hula: FOUR YEARS OF THE 120 23. THE PRECONDITIONS FOR WORLD GOVERNMENT Reinhold Niebuhr: THE MYTH OF WORLD GOVERNMENT 134 24. WORLD GOVERNMENT -- ALTERNATIVE TO TOTAL DESTRUCTION Robert Maynard Hutchins: THE CONSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATIONS FOR WORLD ORDER 138 25. THE TECHNIQUE OF DIPLOMACY Hugh Gibson: THE ROAD TO FOREIGN POLICY 149 PART V THE FOREIGN POLICIES OF THE GREAT POWERS 161 A. The Foreign Policy of the 163 26. HOW TO CONDUCT FOREIGN AFFAIRS THE HARD WAY Hans J. Morgenthau: CONDUCT OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY 163 27. SEVEN POPULAR MISCONCEPTIONS OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY James Reston: DEBATE OVER SHOWS SEVEN MISCONCEPTIONS 174 28. THE BALANCE OF POWER -- PRINCIPLE OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY Alfred Vagts: THE AND THE BALANCE OF POWER 178 29. THE CONTAINMENT OF THE : THE TRUMAN DOCTRINE Harry S. Truman: RECOMMENDATIONS ON AND (Message to Congress, March 12, 1947) 210 30. THE ECONOMIC RESTORATION OF : THE MARSHALL PLAN George C. Marshall: THE EUROPEAN RECOVERY PROGRAM (Address at Harvard University, June 5, 1947) 216 31. THE MILITARY RESTORATION OF : THE ATLANTIC DEFENSE TREATY TEXT OF THE ATLANTIC DEFENSE TREATY (July 22, 1949), 219 32. FOREIGN AID DETERMINED BY THE NATIONAL INTEREST George F. Kennan: FOREIGN AID IN THE FRAMEWORK OF NATIONAL POLICY 222 33. REFORMULATION OF THE TRUMAN DOCTRINE AND THE PROBLEM OF ASIA Dean Acheson: CRISIS IN ASIA -- AN EXAMINATION OF POLICY (Speech before the National Press Club, January 12, 1950) 229 B. The Foreign Policy of Great Britain 242 34. BRITISH FOREIGN POLICY SPEAKS WITH ONE VOICE John Price: FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND THE PUBLIC 242 35. HOW TO THINK ABOUT BRITISH FOREIGN POLICY -- AND ALL FOREIGN POLICY Sir Eyre Crowe: MEMORANDUM ON BRITISH RELATIONS WITH AND GERMANY (January 1, 1907) 247 36. THE BALANCE OF POWER -- PRINCIPLE OF BRITISH FOREIGN POLICY Winston S. Churchill: THE SECOND WORLD WAR 261 C. The Foreign Policy of the 265 37. THE Two MAINSPRINGS OF SOVIET FOREIGN POLICY W. Gurian: PERMANENT FEATURES OF SOVIET FOREIGN POLICY 265 38. THE CONSISTENCY OF RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY The Earl of Malmesbury: DIARIES AND CORRESPONDENCE 288 PART VI PROBLEMS OF FOREIGN POLICY 293 A. The Nature of Contemporary World Politics 293 39. WORLD POLITICS IN THE ATOMIC AGE Jacob Viner: THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE ATOMIC BOMB FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 295 40. THE NEW BALANCE OF POWER BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND THE SOVIET UNION Hans J. Morgenthau: THE CONQUEST OF THE UNITED STATES BY GERMANY 303 41. STRENGTH AS A PILLAR OF PEACE Winston Churchill: HOW TO STOP WAR 316 42. ACCOMMODATION AS THE OTHER PILLAR OF PEACE Winston Churchill: SPEECH IN HOUSE OF COMMONS (January 23, 1948) 319 43. Two WORLDS ARE BETTER THAN NONE Winston Churchill: SPEECH IN HOUSE OF COMMONS (June 5, 1946) 323 B. The Nature of the East-West Conflict 324 44. WHAT THREATENS US? -- IMPERIALISM William Pitt: SPEECH IN HOUSE OF COMMONS (February 1, 1793) 326 45. WHAT THREATENS US? -- WORLD REVOLUTION Edmund Burke: CORRESPONDENCE (Letter of August 1793) 334 46. WHAT THREATENS Us? -- NOTHING AT ALL Charles James Fox: SPEECH IN HOUSE OF COMMONS (February 1, 1793) 336 47. IDEOLOGICAL CRUSADE vs. PROTECTION OF THE NATIONAL INTEREST 342 (a) Charles James Fox: SPEECH IN HOUSE OF COMMONS (Fbruary 12, 1793) 343 (b) Charles James Fox: SPEECH IN HOUSE OF COMMONS (May 30, 1794>) 344 (c) Earl Russell: THE LIFE AND TIMES OF CHARLES JAMES FOX 345 48. AGAIN: THE NATIONAL INTEREST AS THE ULTIMATE STANDARD OF FOREIGN POLICY Edmund Burke: SPEECH IN HOUSE OF COMMONS (February 18, 1793) 347 49. WHAT WE SEEK AND WHAT WE OPPOSE 348 (a) William Pitt: SPEECH IN HOUSE OF COMMONS (February 17, 1800) 349 (b) Lord Salisbury: BIOGRAPHICAL ESSAYS 351 50. COUNTER-REVOLUTION IS NOT A FOREIGN POLICY C. K. Webster: THE FOREIGN POLICY OF CASTLEREAGH, - 353 51. WHOEVER DISTURBS THE BALANCE OF POWER IS THE ENEMY 354 (a) C. K. Webster: THE FOREIGN POLICY OF CASTLEREAGH, - 354 (b) Lord Salisbury: BIOGRAPHICAL ESSAYS 355 52. THE RUSSIAN THREAT TO WESTERN EUROPE 356 (a) Oliver Goldsmith: THE CITIZEN OF THE WORLD 357 (b) Prince de Talleyrand: MEMOIRS 358 53. THE RUSSIAN THREAT TO THE EASTERN SHORES OF THE MEDITERRANEAN Lord Salisbury: CIRCULAR OF APRIL 1, 1878, TO THE BRITISH EMBASSIES 359 54. Russia CANNOT BE STOPPED BY PAPER AGREEMENTS 361 (a) Earl Russell: COMMUNICATION TO LORD NAPIER 362 (b) REPORT OF THE CRIMEA CONFERENCE (February 11, 1945 ) 364 55. THE PERENNIAL ASPECTS OF THE EAST-WEST CONFLICT Philips Price: SPEECH IN HOUSE OF COMMONS (December 10, 1948 ) 369 56. THE OUTLOOK George F. Kennan: IS WAR WITH INEVITABLE? 372 C. Concrete Points of Conflict 380 57. CAUSES AND CONDITIONS OF CONFLICT Philip E. Mosely: SOVIET-AMERICAN RELATIONS SINCE THE WAR 381 58. THE RUSSIAN FRONTIER IS AT THE ELBE Winston Churchill: SPEECH IN HOUSE OF COMMONS (June 5, 1946) 393 59. GERMANY: BATTLEGROUND, BASTION, OR BUFFER? Hans Speier: THE FUTURE OF GERMAN NATIONALISM Kurt Riezler: COMMENT 404 60. ARMED DEFENSE FOR 'S SALVATION Winston Churchill: FULTON SPEECH (March 5, 1946 ) 408 61. THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE Winston Churchill: ZURICH SPEECH (September 19, 1946 ) 417 62. EUROPEAN UNION AND THE BRITISH DILEMMA Nicholas Mansergh: BRITAIN, THE COMMONWEALTH, AND WESTERN UNION 421 63. RUDIMENTS OF A EUROPEAN CONSTITUTION STATUTE OF THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE (May 5, 1949 ) 435 64. THE NATURE OF THE CONFLICT IN ASIA John K. Fairbank: COMPETITION WITH COMMUNISM, NOT CONTAINMENT 446 65. THE SOURCES OF SOVIET AND WESTERN STRENGTH IN ASIA The Economist: RESERVES FOR THE KREMLIN? 451 PART VII CONCLUSION 459 66. THE TASK BEFORE THE WESTERN WORLD Winston Churchill: SPEECH IN HOUSE OF COMMONS (March 28, 1950) 459 Index follows page 468

    Written and first read during the prolonged, tragic world war between totalitarian and democratic forces, Niebuhr’s book took up the timely question of how democracy as a political system could best be defended.s career.